1. November 8, 20031 Global Competitive Internet Usage Forecasting Across Countries and Languages June Wei Department of Management/MIS College of Business University of West Florida

2. November 8, 20032 Outline of Presentation Introductions – Problems – Objectives Methodology Findings Conclusions

3. November 8, 20033 Introductions The Internet users is estimated to be greater than 50% annually: a level of growth that is fabulous The volume of Internet traffic continues to double about every 100 days The number of Internet Websites is increasing dramatically as well However, 95% of the global population still does not have any access to it

4. November 8, 20034 Problems To make an estimate and forecast of Internet users for many countries are a daunting task Data from comprehensive and identical surveys in every country would have been collected on a regular basis over many years Such data does not exist and will not be available for a long time since such surveys are too expensive to do for a single organization A variety of survey data from many different organizations using different methodologies. Since some surveys are excellent, some fair, and a few misleading, this results in conflicting survey data and requiring effort and knowledge to determine the quality of information and data.

5. November 8, 20035 Objectives This research analyze global online usage patterns by providing accurate Internet usage forecasting –provide insights to future Internet commerce worldwide by providing a better understanding of projected worldwide growth in the global Internet market –help telecommunications and networks sectors to estimate and forecast the Internet traffic, access speed, and Internet devices including high performance PCs to improve Internet performance. This research also analyze online multi-linguistic populations trends analysis and guidance –help the design of multi- linguistic Website and Web pages –help web based international business and global e- commerce

6. November 8, 20036 Methodology Global Internet users analysis across countries –use a panel in top 15 countries with the most Internet users from 1997 to 2002 –Data extracted from the press releases of Computer Industry Almanac Inc –Founded in 1986, Computer Industry Almanac Inc. is a most important resource that serves as a roadmap to the Internet Industry Online population across linguistics –use a panel in 11 online languages from 1997 to 2002 –Data extracted from Global Reach –Founded in 1981, Global Reach brings international marketing to the Web to attract Internet users to a Website on a country-specific basis.

7. November 8, 20037 Methodology Index Analysis Growth Rate Analysis Forecasting Analysis –S-Curve Model –Quadratic Model

8. November 8, 20038 Findings The Internet users indices analysis (1997-2002) –with the exception of Canada and Australia in the year 2001 and Netherlands in the year 1999 that showed a decrease in Internet users, all the Internet users showed a stable or continuous upward movement. –At the end of year 2002, China showed the largest index (8790) from the base year. The lowest index (294) was found in the U.S. –Within each respective year, the range between the highest and lowest indices can be rather large(+-100 range) –China, 8790; Italy, 2482; and France, 1411 had ending indices at the end of 2002 that exceeded the computed average Internet user growth index of 1405 for 14 countries.

9. November 8, 20039 Findings Internet users growth rates analysis (1997-2002) –an increase in Internet usage with the exception of Canada and Australia of 2000 - 2001 period, and Netherlands of 1998 to 1999 –period 1997 to 1998 the best year for Internet user increases. The average percent growth of all the countries was 133.39%, the highest of the six years. Much of this raise went to Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, France, Spain, Italy, and China –the range between the highest and lowest percent is large (+-10 range).

10. November 8, 200310 Findings online linguistic population indices analysis (1997- 2002) –all the online users showed a stable or continuous upward movement. After 1998, a large increase shown than the previous year –in the year 2002, online Chinese-speaking population showed the largest index (7800) from the base year. The lowest index (325) was found of online English-speaking population –Within each respective year, the range between the highest and lowest indices can be rather large (+-10) –Two online populations had ending indices that exceeded the computed average population growth index of 2825 in 2002. These are online Chinese and Spanish-speaking populations.

11. November 8, 200311 Findings online linguistic population growth rate analysis (1997-2002) –an increase in online linguistic population –the period 1998 to 1999 the best year for online linguistic populations increases –In any given year, the range between the highest and lowest percent is large (+-10)

12. November 8, 200312 Findings Internet Users Forecasting Across Countries (2003-2005) – The Internet user grow rate is slow in the developed countries as much of the industrialized world is approaching the top of the S-curve (U.S., Canada, Italy, Australia, Taiwan, and Sweden) –The other countries are still in the growth phase (Japan, China, Germany, U.K., South Korea, France, Spain, and Netherlands) –U.S. will remain the leading country for Internet users until at least 2005 with above 160 million. Japan is growing faster than U.S. and will be a close second by 2005 with 142 million. China is growing even faster and will have nearly 140 million Internet users by 2005, which is expected to be close to Japan.

13. November 8, 200313 CountryForecasting Values (Million) 030405 U.S.163.8960166.5848170.3578 Japan89.4563113.9724141.5663 U.K.32.776738.248644.0037 Canada16.428715.256817.1769 Germany37.496742.935848.3289 Australia10.714511.687212.6077 Netherlands12.731715.929419.5105 Sweden6.08036.29326.3561 France18.436221.122422.5903 Spain13.482417.100221.1634 Italy21.004223.580824.7310 Taiwan10.792112.028413.1797 South Korea 36.9233 45.544254.9011 China 78.6319 107.2024140.2071 Worldwide 665.7928 773.9693851.5461

14. November 8, 200314 Findings Internet Users Forecasting Across Languages (2003-2005) –The online linguistic populations grow rate is slow in some linguistics with approaching the top of the S-curve (English, Japanese, German, Korean, Italian, French, Portuguese, Scandinavian, and Dutch) –The other online linguistic populations are still in the growth phase of this market (Chinese, and Spanish)

15. November 8, 200315 LanguageOnline Linguistic Populations (Million) (End of Year) 030405 English243.3487255.5300262.2283 Spanish50.499569.713691.9991 Japanese59.944667.154671.1249 German46.038354.051258.8812 French20.857221.273521.4007 Chinese77.4762111.1429150.7858 Scandinavian15.666419.856824.5710 Italian24.977432.430140.7876 Dutch13.406516.859420.6457 Korean30.856241.713154.1414 Portuguese19.736326.712434.7123 Non-English Total420.6437559.5725718.9299 Total647.2618811.9998995.2854

16. November 8, 200316 Conclusions Internet Usage Analysis –Conducting international e-business not only in developed countries, but also in developing countries is very important in the future Online Linguistic Population Analysis –To conduct global e-commerce, need to design Websites in multi-linguistic, not only in English is a very critical factor to gain international market profits Limitations –Data survey: non-response might be a problem –Random factors may affect the forecasting Great care was taken in the database selection, & robust analysis and statistic techniques were used