1. DEFENSE REVIEW AND STATUS OF DEFENSE REFORM Maj. Zoltan HORVATH Staff Officer, J-5, HUMOD, DS February 2005

2.  The changing security environment - NATO enlargement; - 11 September. - 11 September.  Defense and security interests abroad  Shortfalls, surplus and obsolete capabilities in the defense sector  The former force structure was financially unaffordable  Financial shortfalls in the area of maintenance and modernization Defense Review „To qualitatively contribute to the Euro-Atlantic peace and security”  To balance the new security challenges and available resources  To deliver a properly costed 10 year plan  To develop realistic, affordable, military capabilities  To transform to voluntary based, fully professional armed forces Reasons Mission Objectives

3. Assumptions Threats: Threats: No large-scale conventional threat to NATO and Hungary within the foreseeable futureNo large-scale conventional threat to NATO and Hungary within the foreseeable future Potential threats Potential threats Regional instability: Balkans, MediterraneanRegional instability: Balkans, Mediterranean TerrorismTerrorism Proliferation of WMD, delivery meansProliferation of WMD, delivery means Risks Risks Illegal and mass migration, organized crime, drug-trafficking, environmental and other risksIllegal and mass migration, organized crime, drug-trafficking, environmental and other risks

4. The ten-step process of the Review Allocate resources and finalize Master Plan 10 Decide on priorities 9 Identify options 8 Develop credible and robust costing 7 Identify the full implications 6 Identify Required Military Capabilities 5 Agree Planning Assumptions 4 Agree Military Missions and Tasks 3 Agree Defense Objectives 2 Agree Foreign and Security Policy objectives 1

5. 1. NATO Article 5 Operations 1.1. Home defense 1.2. Common defense, assisting other member state 1.3. Common defense, against strategic attack on NATO 2. Border security 3. Host Nation Support 4. Participation in international crisis management, peace operations 4.1. Peace support operations (military observer missions) 4.2. Peacekeeping operations 4.3. Peace enforcement operations 5. Participation in international crisis management, other international operations. 6. Other non-war-fighting operations e.g. Fighting against terrorism 7. Bilateral, multilateral co-operation 8. International treaties, arms control 9. Humanitarian assistance 10. Information collection, processing and security 11. Assistance for civil authorities 11.1. Disaster relief 11.2. Explosive Ordnance Disposal 11.3. Search and Rescue 11.4. State of Emergency tasks 12. Air Policing / Air Defense 13. Frequency Management 14. Protocol Tasks of the Hungarian Defense Forces

6. Force development considerations Collective security requirement Collective security requirement Retain military capabilities justified by the level of ambition. Retain military capabilities justified by the level of ambition. Operations in Allied (International) Coalition – expeditionary forces. Operations in Allied (International) Coalition – expeditionary forces. Modular, multifunctional, flexible units. Modular, multifunctional, flexible units. Increase number of deployable combat elements. Increase number of deployable combat elements. Enhance combat support and combat service support capabilities. Enhance combat support and combat service support capabilities. Focus on Alliance shortfalls (bridging, MP, water purification). Focus on Alliance shortfalls (bridging, MP, water purification). Focus on „Niche” capabilities (medical, CIMIC, NBC, SOF). Focus on „Niche” capabilities (medical, CIMIC, NBC, SOF). Replace old, obsolete WP equipment with NATO compatible systems. Replace old, obsolete WP equipment with NATO compatible systems. Corps level support artillery, EW, AIFVs eliminated, MBTs downsized. Corps level support artillery, EW, AIFVs eliminated, MBTs downsized. Transformation, modernization, transition to voluntary based, fully professional armed forces. Transformation, modernization, transition to voluntary based, fully professional armed forces.

7. Level of ambition (as a result of Defense Review) Capability Gaps NRF Concept PCC Areas Role Sharing Multinational Efforts Operationsabroad One brigade, no rotation, one shot NATO Article 5, EU operations, deployment with all CS and CSS elements Two battalion size forces, max 1600 persons, A-B-C rotation Four transport helos Four Gripens for Air-to- Ground tasks Specialization One shot no rotation MP battalion Water purification coy Bridging battalion „Niche capabilities” (Med, CIMIC, CBNR, SOF, HUMINT, PSYOPS) Air policing

8. The long term approach of the HDF transformation 2004-2013 PHASE I 2004 - 2006 PHASE II 2007 - 2010 PHASE III 2011 - 2013 1st period 2004.03.01- 2004.08.31. 2nd period 2004.05.01- 2004.10.31. 3rd period 2004.07.01- 2005.02.28. 4 th period 2005.03.01- 2005.08.31. 5 th period 2005.09.01- 2006.02.28. Legal Sector Human Sector Budget and Finance sector Military Sector Technical Modernization, Acquisition Cost-balanced 10-year Plan

9. Characteristics of phases THE FIRST PHASE 2004-2006 VOLUNTARY BASED, PROFESSIONAL FORCE  To establish a new structure, and new dislocation;  To decrease the number of the garrisons and facilities;  To establish the framework of the manning ratios;  To start to equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts military hardware in order to reach their full operational capability;  To withdraw the obsolete, surplus assets from service,  To improve the working and living conditions.

10. Characteristics of phases Training and preparedness To fully equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts military hardware in order to reach their full operational capability. The military units meet the Allied and National requirements in accordance with their readiness category. The goal of achievements To stabilize manning level and the ratio within it. To reach average level of the Alliance in fields of: operational capability, preparedness, and military hardware. THE SECOND PHASE 2007-2010 THE THIRD PHASE 2008-2013

11. Achievements in 2004 Structural changes – downsizing the force Structural changes – downsizing the force The number of personnel has been reduced (32 000 in peacetime) The number of personnel has been reduced (32 000 in peacetime) Quality of training has been improved – NCOs, contracted soldiers Quality of training has been improved – NCOs, contracted soldiers Acquisitions: Acquisitions: CIS assets, NBC protection assets, water purification equipmentCIS assets, NBC protection assets, water purification equipment Vehicle programVehicle program Disposal/withdrawal of surplus military hardware Disposal/withdrawal of surplus military hardware Infrastructural investments Infrastructural investments Garrison reconstructionsGarrison reconstructions Housing improvements of personnelHousing improvements of personnel NATINEADS facilitiesNATINEADS facilities The last conscript soldier left the military service on November 03, ’04! The last conscript soldier left the military service on November 03, ’04!

12. 42 Billion HUF defense budget cut in 2004 Defense Review budgetary forecast for 2005 1.76 %, for 2006 and onwards 1.81% GDP share (Governmental resolution, communicated to the Alliance) New (2004) forecast for 2005 1.27%, for 2006 1,24 %... 2009 and onwards 1,41 GDP share Shortfall is approx 1.17 Billion HUF (4.8 Million €) for ten years, an average 24.7 % New Budgetary conditions Note: Billion HUF at 2004 prices level Reasons: increasing national budget deficit, inflation decreasing efforts Consequence: new plan with new priorities

13. Managing the problem Consequences Consequences Impact on the Level of AmbitionImpact on the Level of Ambition Impact on capabilities, force structureImpact on capabilities, force structure Impact on NATO declared forces (FGs)Impact on NATO declared forces (FGs) Drastic saving policy is neededDrastic saving policy is needed Conclusion: Need to review the Level of Ambition, Scenarios, Concurrency, Capabilities to achieve, Force Proposals (Force Goals), Prague Capability Commitment Conclusion: Need to review the Level of Ambition, Scenarios, Concurrency, Capabilities to achieve, Force Proposals (Force Goals), Prague Capability Commitment (Done, DPQ correction prepared for Governmental approval) (Done, DPQ correction prepared for Governmental approval) Priorities Priorities NATO/EU declared forces, (NRF/EU Battle Group), PSOs, modernizationNATO/EU declared forces, (NRF/EU Battle Group), PSOs, modernization Balancing the resource-plan: „Review the Review”, rolling the ten year plan, free up and reallocate resources Balancing the resource-plan: „Review the Review”, rolling the ten year plan, free up and reallocate resources Cut personal costsCut personal costs Reprioritize procurement programsReprioritize procurement programs Cut infrastructure operational-maintenance and development fundsCut infrastructure operational-maintenance and development funds Cut training costsCut training costs Further rationalize general operational-maintenance costsFurther rationalize general operational-maintenance costs Reduce national development programs, international costsReduce national development programs, international costs Review and reduce the force structureReview and reduce the force structure

14. Operationsabroad Specialization For six month Fifteen cspt helos Four Gripens for Air-to- Ground tasks MP trained inf battalion Water purification coy (- one platoon) Bridging battalion company One HRF BDE including CS/CSS for six month Two (1.5) battalion-sized deployment, max 1200 persons, A-B-C rotation 1000 persons until 2010 „Niche capabilities” (Med, CIMIC, CBRN, SOF) + EITHER OR One bn-sized deployment Correction in the Level of Ambition AND ? Two Medevac helos Concurrency option from 2014 1200 1200 persons for enduring operations, or max 6500 persons for six months + HUMINT, PSYOPS; SOF from 2010, DECON coy 2010 Twelve attack helos ? No modernization or Σ 1200

15. The new force structure Land Forces 2 infantry brigades, of which one with CS, CSS elements (PD) SOF battalion (from 2010) (D) Reconnaissance battalion (D) Engineer brigade, bridging and water purification capabilities included (PD) NBC battalion (D) Tank battalion (2010)(ND) Logistic regiment (PD) Basic training centre (ND) Manouvre Training Centre (ND) Land Forces 2 infantry brigades, of which one with CS, CSS elements (PD) SOF battalion (from 2010) (D) Reconnaissance battalion (D) Engineer brigade, bridging and water purification capabilities included (PD) NBC battalion (D) Tank battalion (2010)(ND) Logistic regiment (PD) Basic training centre (ND) Manouvre Training Centre (ND) Air Force Air Base (MOB), all fix- winged assets, GRIPEN (D) (MiG-29 until 2009) transport, training aircraft Air Base (MOB) reserve Helicopter Base, Mi- 24,(ND) Mi-8/17 (PD), support and logistic elements Ground Based Air Defense Brigade (SA-6+MISTRAL) C2, support and logistic elements (PD) Air Surveillance Regiment (ND) -CRC / AOC/ (ND) -SOF (ND) Support battalion (2007)(ND) Air Force Air Base (MOB), all fix- winged assets, GRIPEN (D) (MiG-29 until 2009) transport, training aircraft Air Base (MOB) reserve Helicopter Base, Mi- 24,(ND) Mi-8/17 (PD), support and logistic elements Ground Based Air Defense Brigade (SA-6+MISTRAL) C2, support and logistic elements (PD) Air Surveillance Regiment (ND) -CRC / AOC/ (ND) -SOF (ND) Support battalion (2007)(ND) Logistics Central Logistic Base (ND) Dangerous Materiel Supply Group (ND) Support Regiment (PD) Explosive Ordnance Disposal and Flotilla Regiment (D) Movement Coordination Centre Printing Office (ND) METEO Service (ND) Mapping Service (ND) CIMIC and PSYOPS Center (D) Equipment Surplus Storage Facility (ND) Logistics Central Logistic Base (ND) Dangerous Materiel Supply Group (ND) Support Regiment (PD) Explosive Ordnance Disposal and Flotilla Regiment (D) Movement Coordination Centre Printing Office (ND) METEO Service (ND) Mapping Service (ND) CIMIC and PSYOPS Center (D) Equipment Surplus Storage Facility (ND) Modular, multifunctional, flexible Increase number of deployable elements Enhanced combat support (CS), combat service support (CSS) ? D – deployable, PD – partially deployable, ND – non-deployable ?

16. Balancing measures Review the force structure, further cut non-deployable elements: Review the force structure, further cut non-deployable elements: eliminate tank battalion in 2007, reestablish one light infantry battalioneliminate tank battalion in 2007, reestablish one light infantry battalion close Taszár Air Base by 1 July 2005close Taszár Air Base by 1 July 2005 withdraw SA-6 GBAD from servicewithdraw SA-6 GBAD from service transfer Kecskemét Military Hospital to local authorities, retain Military Aviation Medical Research Centertransfer Kecskemét Military Hospital to local authorities, retain Military Aviation Medical Research Center eliminate Central Aviation Repair Facility by 2008eliminate Central Aviation Repair Facility by 2008 overview JLC support battalion tasks and structureoverview JLC support battalion tasks and structure transfer the Military Prison to the Ministry of Justicetransfer the Military Prison to the Ministry of Justice overview signal requirements, streamline signal unitsoverview signal requirements, streamline signal units close/hibernate war headquartersclose/hibernate war headquarters overview brigade, battalion staff-structures, maintenance units, air basesoverview brigade, battalion staff-structures, maintenance units, air bases

17. New characteristics of force Personnel 200620082014 Units 25 000 23 000 23 500 Integrated MoD and background 4 000 3 500 Σ 29 000 27 000 III 6 months FOC Deployed or deployable IOC All volunteer, professional forces – new life in the barracks All volunteer, professional forces – new life in the barracks New ratio of personnel (officer/NCO, rank) New ratio of personnel (officer/NCO, rank) New career model – evaluation, competition, retain qualified personnel New career model – evaluation, competition, retain qualified personnel New training concept New training concept Improved basic and advanced training, hire special skilled personnel from the labor market Improved basic and advanced training, hire special skilled personnel from the labor market Contracting soldiers – basis for NCO corps Contracting soldiers – basis for NCO corps Outsourcing Outsourcing Improve living and working conditions, new garrison model – reconstruction program Improve living and working conditions, new garrison model – reconstruction program

18. What we might win? By 2006, 6 well-manned, equipped, deployable, flexible, trained infantry battalions By 2006, 6 well-manned, equipped, deployable, flexible, trained infantry battalions Modern fighters, 3D radars, modernized transport helicopters Modern fighters, 3D radars, modernized transport helicopters Specialization (water purification, bridging, military police capability) Specialization (water purification, bridging, military police capability) Meet important Allied requirements (NRF, FP-2004, PCC, EU ) Meet important Allied requirements (NRF, FP-2004, PCC, EU ) Further modernization (organizational, equipment) Further modernization (organizational, equipment)  Extended, enhanced fire power  Improved deployability  NATO sustainability requirements In line with NATO operational standards In line with NATO operational standards Based on existing capabilities Based on existing capabilities Decrease effects on personnel caused by relocations to another garrison Decrease effects on personnel caused by relocations to another garrison Effective recruiting system Effective recruiting system Balanced resource plan in every year Balanced resource plan in every year

19. 20000 25000 30000 40000 45000 35000 50000 60000 65000 55000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 Accession Process Strategic Review Defense Review 1998 1999 1995 1996 19972000 200120022003 2004 H U N G A R I A N D E F E N S E F O R C E 1998 1999 1995 1996 19972000 200120022003 2004 STRATEGIC CONCEPT  No general (nucl.) threat  New security challenges  Coop with former adversaries Transformation – constant review process NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT  Effective mil. capabilities  DCI (5 areas)  CRO ISTAMBUL PRAGUE  NFS, NCS, NRF  PCC (4 areas)  terrorism  Usability- availability, deployability CAPABILITY TRANSFORMATION Near-Term Operational Education New ratio of personnel Deployability, Usability New training concept Specialized capabilities All volunteer, professional forces Force modernization

20. „To qualitatively contribute to the Euro-Atlantic peace and security” Thank you for your attention!