2. The South African Economy Presented by: Dawie Roodt 14 September 2006

3. Real Economy

4. GDP

6. Relative size to GDP, 2006 Q2

7. Fiscal Policy

8. State Finances

12. Monetary Policy

13. Inflation

15. Interest rates

17. Exchange rates R/$$/Euro

18. Prime and PSCE %

19. Mortgages

20. Motor Trade

21. Petrol Price

22. Capital Expenditure InstituteTime HorizonPlanned Capital Expenditure Sasol2006R20.0bn Eskom2011R97.0bn World Cup 2010: Gautrain Acsa Stadiums 2010 2009 2010 R20.0bn R3.0bn R5.0bn Transnet2009R32.7bn State (National Budget)2009R372.0bn

23. Economic Impact of the 2010 FIFA World Cup  Direct expenditure of R12,7 billion;  Contribute R21,3 billion to the GDP of South Africa;  Generate the equivalent of 159 000 annual jobs  Additional R7,2 billion will be paid to Government in taxes. Source: Gauteng Tourism Authority

24. Debt Levels

25. Credit Extension

26. Household debt to disposable income Source: SARB

27. Debt Servicing Cost Source: SARB

28. Savings to disposable income of households Source: SARB

29. Summary  Strong capital expenditure  Short term inflation risk (PPI)  Interest rate in upwards cycle  Currency less volatile  Effect of interest rate on consumer spending

30. Building Statistics

31. Building: Non-Residential

33. Building Plans Passed: Office and Banking Space

34. Building Plans Passed: Shopping Space

35. Building Plans Passed: Industrial and Warehouse

36. Balance of Payments

38. Shares Performance - Top 40 (price movement), 12 months Best Performers%Worst Performers% Anglo American Platinum 126.7JD Group-18.8 Netcare84.9Edgars-17.1 Anglo American PLC 75.8Aspen Pharmacare Holdings -1.1 Impala Platinum73.2Absa Group Limited0.1 Gold Fields72.4Pick ‘n Pay0.4

39. A comparison

40. Percentage of World GDP ‘04 Source: UNAIDS

41. 4% of African area 23% of African GDP 21.2% of African Exports

42. GDP Source: UN

43. Countries Compared to Provinces Source: UN

44. AIDS Source: UNAIDS

45. Mistakes made in Africa  Private Property Rights  Regulated Prices  Idolise Leaders  Marketing Boards  Nepotism  Incompetence  Corruption  Poor Fiscal Discipline  Poor Monetary Policy  Unrealistic Projects ????????

46. Development Data & Statistics 2004WorldSouth AfricaZimbabwe GDP (current US$, bn)41 365.8214.74.7 GNI per capita (current US$)6 338.03 670.0620.0 Life expectancy (years)67.344.637.2 Population, total (millions)6 363.245.512.9 Population growth (annual %)1.2-0.70.6 Surface area (000, sq km)133 940.91 219.1390.8 Source: World Bank

47. Zimbabwe: GDP Source: IMF

48. Zimbabwe: GDP Source: IMF

49. Zimbabwe: Inflation Source: IMF

50. Asset Allocation

51. Reason Equities Demand/Rand/International BondsInflation/Supply CashShort Interest rates PropertyProperty Cycle – Heavy Overweight – Overweight – Neutral – Underweight – Heavy Underweight

52. Local Equities, 2006 Economic Sector MCEAAJSE Sector Mining and Quarrying3234%Mining, Platinum, Gold, Coal Finance, prop and bus. serv 3024% Banks, Insurance, Life Ass, Media & Pht, IT, Property, Support Serv Manufacturing 1214% Auto, Basic Ind, Beverages, Chem, Elect, IT Hard, Pharm & Bio, Steel & Other Personal Service 65% Cyc Serv, Health, Leisure Ent, Non-cyc Serv, Person Care Transport, storage and comm. 67% Telecomm, Transport Trade, hotels and restaurants 64% Cyc Cons, Food & Drug, Gen Retail, House Goods, Non-cyc Cons Electricity, gas and water 43% Oil & Gas Agri, Forestry and Fishing 31% Food Prod Construction 28% Const & Build 100100%

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