1. I. I.Scientific Method A. A.Process 1. 1.Observation Careful; Include as many parameters as possible Observations  Induction  Question  Hypothesis 2. 2.Question 3. 3.Hypothesis Possible cause Reflect past experience (educated guess) Multiple (consider alternative explanations) Testable Falsifiable 4. 4.Prediction Hypothesis/Principle  Deduction  Prediction 5. 5.Experiment Experimental group, Control group, Replication 6. 6.Results/Interpretation 7. 7.Scientific Theory

3. I. I.Scientific Method B. B.Bias 1. 1.Sampling Bias Our view of the world is conditioned very strongly by the observational methods we use Ex: Counting whales vs. bacteria vs. viruses Methods vary considerably, depending on the temporal and spatial scales of interest Ex: How is global temperature measured? Sea level? 2. 2.Assumptions Important to recognize inherent assumptions Ex: 14 C dating of wooden artifacts 3. 3.Paradigms Generally accepted model, conceptual framework or set of belief(s) about a particular topic Ex: Dinosaurs went extinct because of global climate change precipitated by an asteroid Paradigms may not be permanent Can be discarded/replaced by better explanation (paradigm shift) Ex: Heliocentric solar system, continental drift Paradigms may become so entrenched that people ignore contradictory evidence or modify evidence to match paradigm

4. IPCC 2007

6. I. I.Scientific Method B. B.Bias 1. 1.Sampling Bias Our view of the world is conditioned very strongly by the observational methods we use Ex: Counting whales vs. bacteria vs. viruses Methods vary considerably, depending on the temporal and spatial scales of interest Ex: How is global temperature measured? Sea level? 2. 2.Assumptions Important to recognize inherent assumptions Ex: 14 C dating of wooden artifacts 3. 3.Paradigms Generally accepted model, conceptual framework or set of belief(s) about a particular topic Ex: Dinosaurs went extinct because of global climate change precipitated by an asteroid Paradigms may not be permanent Can be discarded/replaced by better explanation (paradigm shift) Ex: Heliocentric solar system, continental drift Paradigms may become so entrenched that people ignore contradictory evidence or modify evidence to match paradigm

7. II. II.Technology – Developments A. A.Observation Satellite-based sensors Automated monitoring equipment Ex: TAO/TRITON arrayTAO/TRITON array Novel technology Ex: acoustic instruments Powerful computers Real-time communication (fiber, internet, satellite) B. B.Communication Global communication technology Extensive scrutiny (scientific, non-scientific) Intense media coverage C. C.Mitigation/Alternatives Emissions control (air, water) Water purification (desalination, reclamation) D. D.Energy Nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, fuel cells, ocean (tides, waves, currents) Transition in energy use: Biomass  Coal  Oil/Natural gas & Uranium

8. World Fuel Production & Energy Use FUEL180019001990 Biomass (6-18 MJ kg -1 ) 1,0001,4001,800 Coal (14-32) 101,0005,000 Oil (42) 0203,000 Uranium (90 million) 00?? ENERGY180019002000 Total25080010,000 Indexed (1900 = 100) 311001,250 McNeill, 2000 Fuel values in millions of metric tons; Energy values in mmt oil equivalent - More energy used in 20 th century than all of human history before 1900

9. II. II.Technology – Developments E. E.Packaging/Processing Canning Bottling Freezing Freeze drying F. F.Global Commerce 1. 1.Developments Refrigerated long-haul trucks/containers/train cars Interstate highway & railroad systems Advances in food processing/storage Selective breeding/genetic modification 2. 2.Consequences Increase in tonnage of food shipped internationally 898 vs. 200 million tonnes in 2001 vs. 1961 2000: Wholesale market in Chicago – Average kilogram of produce traveled >2400 km from farm to plate (25% increase vs. 1980) Typical supermarket 30,000+ items 50% produced by 10 multinational companies

10. II. II.Technology – Developments F. F.Global commerce 3. 3.Environmental Effects a. a.Air pollution – Transportation Ex: Bottled water Nearly 25% of all bottled water transported internationally b. b.Release of GHGs Production (e.g. fertilizer, flatulence), transportation c. c.Waste production Ex: Bottled water 89 billion liters/yr  1.5 million tons plastic waste (WWF, 2001) 154 billion liters in 2004 (Earth Policy Institute) >1 billion water bottles in CA trash/yr (CA Dept of Conservation, 2003) d. d.Resource use Ex: Bottled water 2004 – Plastic bottle production used ~9 million barrels of oil, enough to fuel 600,000 cars for a year (EPI)

11. Earth Policy Institute

12. II. II.Technology – Developments F. F.Global commerce 4. 4.Environmental Effects e. e.Agricultural diversity Conversion to monocultures  Loss of diversity f. f.Environmental degradation Ex: Canals/Locks on Mississippi  Biodiversity loss (e.g. aquatic plants, inverts, fishes, birds) Ex: Dredging/Development of Pantanal (largest wetland in South America – 140,000 km 2 ~IL)  Damage to biodiversity hotspot 5. 5.Health Concerns Ex: 2003 – Green onions from Mexico  600 people in PA with hepatitis, 3 deaths Ex: 2006 – Spinach from CA  200+ people in 26 states sick from E. coli, 4+ deaths