1. Framework for Phase 2 Modeling Function of the Model: A platform for discussing alternative growth scenarios in Metro Boston and the associated tradeoffs Five Study Areas: People and Communities Getting Around Buildings and Landscapes Air, Water and Wildlife Prosperity

2. Phase 2: Baseline Model Narrative: Qualitative Narrative Quantitative Narrative Computer Model: Community Viz 15-25 Components 7-15 Components 3-6 Components

3. Scenarios Agents Steering Committee Inter Issue Taskforce Technical and Content Liaison Consultant Team Public and Leadership Dialogues

4. Three Ways to Build Scenarios Inductive Approach-Data driven framework Deductive Approach- Start with framework and fill in data Incremental Approach- Start with “Official Future” fill in framework and data

5. Regional Population Projection November 2005 MAPC

6. 1990 Population by Cohort (Age, Sex, Race) Future Natural Increase Apply Migration Rates Future Migration Future Regional Population (Regional Control) Death RatesBirth Rates Trend of Municipal Share by Age Trend of Municipal Total Share Future Municipal Population by Age 2000 Population by Cohort Difference = Migration by Cohort Future Municipal Total Population Regional Population Projection Municipal Population Location

7. Base Year Population Projected Year Population Birth Survival Migration Cohort-Component Method MAPC August 10, 2005

8. Base Year Population Projected Year Population Birth Survival Migration Cohort-Component Method Child Bearing Cohorts Every Cohort Survived & Aged Population New Births Net Remaining Population Birth Rate Survival Rate Net Migration Rate = MAPC August 10, 2005

9. How to estimate the rates?

10. Survival Rate and Aging Age-sex-race specific survival rate As of year 2000

11. 1990 Population by Cohort (Age, Sex, Race) Future Natural Increase Apply Migration Rates Future Migration Future Regional Population (Regional Control) Death RatesBirth Rates Trend of Municipal Share by Age Trend of Municipal Total Share Future Municipal Population by Age 2000 Population by Cohort Difference = Migration by Cohort Future Municipal Total Population Regional Population Projection Municipal Population Location

12. How to estimate the trend of the share of each community

13. Logarithmic Curve

14. Calibration

15. Calibration based on Year 2000 * Calibration shifts up or down the line to pass through the data of year 2000.

16. Regional Employment Projection MAPC

17. National Employment Total Regional Employment Total Regional Employment By Sector Trend of Regional Total Share Trend of Municipal Sectoral Share Municipal Employment By Sector Trend of Municipal Total Share Trend of Regional Sector Share Total Municipal Employment Regional Employment Projection Municipal Employment Location

18. National Total Employment 1982-2004 Shift-Share & Two-way Sectoral Projection

19. Regional Share of National Employment 1990-2004 Shift-Share & Two-way Sectoral Projection

20. Regional Employment Total Regional Employment Total National Employment Total Regional Share Shift-Share & Two-way Sectoral Projection

21. National Structural Change 1982-2004 Manufacturing (Down: 20 % to 12 %) Professional Service (Up: 8.5 % to 12 %) Government (Down: 18 % to 16 %) Education & Health (Up: 8 % to 12 %) Shift-Share & Two-way Sectoral Projection

22. Regional Variation of Structure 1990-2004 Manufacturing (Down: -0.2 % to -1.4 %) Professional Service (Up: 2.6 % to 3.4 %) Government (Down: -4 % to -4.2 %) Education & Health (Down: -6 % to -5 %) Shift-Share & Two-way Sectoral Projection

23. National Employment Total Regional Employment Total Regional Employment By Sector Trend of Regional Total Share Trend of Municipal Sectoral Share Municipal Employment By Sector Trend of Municipal Total Share Trend of Regional Sector Share Total Municipal Employment Regional Employment Projection Municipal Employment Location

24. Land Use Model Allocation to Traffic Analysis Zones November 2005 MAPC

25. Land Use Model Allocation to Traffic Analysis Zones Population/Housing Units Three components of Housing Unit Growth –Greenfield Development –Densification –Community Comments Housing unit estimates are scaled to meet the projected housing unit demand, based on population and household size.

26. Greenfield Development Rate of new residential land is based on land consumption rate from 1971-1999. Buildable land excludes permanently protected open space, wetlands, commercial/industrial zones, and built land. Housing development occurs at the density allowed by underlying zoning, with a 10% discount for roads and unbuildable areas. Not more than 80% of remaining buildable units can be constructed in any one decade. Land Use Model Housing Unit Development

27. Densification “Densification Factor” calculated for each community, based on increase in housing units per acre of developed land, 1970-2000. Multiplied by the square of the Buildout Factor so that densification is focused in those TAZs that are closer to buildout. Multiplied by the amount of developed land to yield number of densification units. Land Use Model Housing Unit Development

28. Community Comments Some community comments indicated specific numbers of units for specific TAZs. Where a range was given, MAPC usually used the low end of the range and paced multi- decade developments conservatively. If specific numbers of units were not indicated, substituted 5% of total housing unit demand. Land Use Model Housing Unit Development

29. Scaling Preliminary housing unit projections (Greenfield and Densification) were summed across all TAZs in community. Community Comment units not subject to scaling. (Total HU demand – community comment units) ÷ preliminary housing unit projections = scale factor. Scale factor applied to preliminary HU projections for each TAZ; add community comment units to yield Adjusted Total Housing Units. Adjusted Total Housing Units assumed to have the same Greenfield-Densification proportions as Preliminary HU projections. Land Use Model Housing Unit Development

30. 60% 40% Community Comment Units Densification Units Greenfield Units Housing Unit Demand “Preliminary Housing Units" 60% 40% Adjusted Housing Unit Total

31. Land Use Model Economic Development TAZ-level Employment Projections Rate of new commercial/industrial/urban open land is based on land conversion rate 1985-1999. Buildable land excludes wetlands, protected open space, residential zones, built areas. Discounted by 10% to allow for roads and unbuildable areas. Job Densification factor: increase in employees per acre of commercial/industrial/urban open land per decade. Initial total employment is a function of Total C/I/UO land times new Job Density.

32. Land Use Model Economic Development Sectoral Allocations Initial total employment is multiplied by previous decade’s sectoral proportions to yield initial sectoral employment. Initial sectoral employment summed across all TAZ’s and compared to projected community-level sectoral employment to yield a scale factor. Initial sectoral employment scaled accordingly. Adjusted employment for all sectors summed to yield adjusted total employment for TAZ.

33. Community Viz Model Schematic