1. Voting Behavior POLS 21: The American Political System “Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.” —John Adams

2. Key Influences on Voting Behavior Social identity (e.g., race, gender, religion) Social identity (e.g., race, gender, religion) Partisan identification Partisan identification Issue positions Issue positions Candidate evaluations Candidate evaluations

3. Obama and Romney's War for Women's Votes White Guys vs. Obama New Obama Ad: Conservative Women Should Vote Democrat Because Republicans Want to Ban Abortion & Contraception Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men Mitt Romney’s sinking Latino poll numbers Is Obama Taking Black Vote for Granted? Mitt Romney Is Capturing Zero Percent Of The Black Vote, According To New Poll Beyond God and Guns: Why the GOP May Lose the White Working Class

4. Examples… African-American African-American Working class Working class Single Mom Single Mom College student College student Republican Republican Environmentalist Environmentalist Catholic Catholic Senior Citizen Senior Citizen These identities are often ACTIVATED by political parties and their candidates.

5. Vote Choice for President by Gender

6. Trends in Partisan Identification Among Women, 1952-2008

7. Trends in Partisan Identification Among Men, 1952-2008

8. “Which political party do you think would do a better job?” ISSUE MEN WOMEN Handling the nation’s economyR by 8% pointsD by 10% points Handling foreign affairsR by 20% pointsD by 2% points Making health care more affordableD by 26% pointsD by 42% points Reforming the welfare systemR by 11% pointsD by 17% points Handling the problem of povertyD by 23% pointsD by 34% points Handling the budget deficitR by 14% pointsD by 2% points Handling the problem of pollution and the environment D by 32% pointsD by 33% points Dealing with the crime problemR by 12% pointsD by 5% points Party Strengths Among Male and Female Voters

9. Vote for President by Race, 1952-2008 African-Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates

10. Identity Politics, 2008 Did women support Sarah Palin? Did blacks support Barack Obama? Identity Politics, 2008

11. "Oprah is a Traitor!!!" "For the first time in history we actually have a chance at putting a woman in the white house and Oprah backs the black MAN. She's choosing her race over her gender – hypocrisy at its finest!!” What happens when social identities collide?

12. "If the Hispanic voting bloc becomes as committed to the Democrats as the African-American voting bloc has in the past, why, we're in trouble as a party and, I think, as a nation." —Mitt Romney, in a secretly recorded campaign video, speaking with wealthy donors

13. Partisan Identification Partisanship is often learned early in life from our parents through a process of socialization, and (at least theoretically) it grows stronger with age; Partisanship is often learned early in life from our parents through a process of socialization, and (at least theoretically) it grows stronger with age; It is a psychological attachment that is both affective and cognitive in nature. As such it is a point of self- reference, largely independent of formal membership, that is surprising stable over the course of our lives; It is a psychological attachment that is both affective and cognitive in nature. As such it is a point of self- reference, largely independent of formal membership, that is surprising stable over the course of our lives; It acts as a filter, or perceptual screen—a framework through which we experience and understand politics. It simplifies our voting behavior by providing a necessary “short cut,” and conditions our political interest and our willingness to participate actively in politics; It acts as a filter, or perceptual screen—a framework through which we experience and understand politics. It simplifies our voting behavior by providing a necessary “short cut,” and conditions our political interest and our willingness to participate actively in politics; Partisan identification has been called the “most important single influence on political opinions and voting behavior.” It is defined by these characteristics:

14. Does partisanship bias our political perceptions?

15. Partisan Identification Partisanship is often learned early in life from our parents through a process of socialization. Partisanship is often learned early in life from our parents through a process of socialization. It is a psychological attachment that is both affective and cognitive in nature. It is a psychological attachment that is both affective and cognitive in nature. It acts as a filter, or perceptual screen— a framework through which we experience and understand politics. It acts as a filter, or perceptual screen— a framework through which we experience and understand politics.

16. Which issues matter most? "There are many important issues in this presidential campaign. When it comes to deciding for whom you will vote for president, which one of the following is the single most important issue in deciding for whom you will vote? The economy. Social issues and values. Social Security and Medicare. Health care. The federal deficit. Foreign policy and the Middle East. Terrorism." If "all": "Well, if you had to choose the most important issue, which would you choose?" The economy 46% Social issues and values15 Social Security and Medicare12 Health care10 The federal deficit7 Foreign policy and the Middle East6 Terrorism1 None/Other (vol.)1 Unsure1 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Sept. 26-30, 2012. N=832 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.4.

17. Necessary Conditions for Issue Voting Voters must be aware of the issue and form an opinion about it that meets some minimal level of intensity. In general, the stronger the intensity of an attitude, the more likely someone is to act on it; Voters must be aware of the issue and form an opinion about it that meets some minimal level of intensity. In general, the stronger the intensity of an attitude, the more likely someone is to act on it; Voters must know the issue positions of the candidates or their parties and be aware of differences between them; Voters must know the issue positions of the candidates or their parties and be aware of differences between them; Finally, they must be willing to vote on the basis of issues that divide the candidates, and not on some other criteria, such as party identification, or candidate charisma. Finally, they must be willing to vote on the basis of issues that divide the candidates, and not on some other criteria, such as party identification, or candidate charisma. Which issues are most likely to meet these conditions?

18. Presidential Voting and Economic Growth Retrospective voting on the economy provides an information short-cut. 2008

19. Retrospective (economic results) vs. Prospective (policy content) What is the causal mechanism?

20. Perceived Economic Conditions, 1980-2008 Source: National Election Study, various years. Perceptions of the economy mattered in 1992, more than reality.

22. Issue Voting and the Environment

23. Necessary Conditions for Issue Voting Voters must be aware of the issue and form an opinion about it that meets some minimal level of intensity. In general, the stronger the intensity of an attitude, the more likely someone is to act on it; Voters must be aware of the issue and form an opinion about it that meets some minimal level of intensity. In general, the stronger the intensity of an attitude, the more likely someone is to act on it; Voters must know the issue positions of the candidates or their parties and be aware of differences between them; Voters must know the issue positions of the candidates or their parties and be aware of differences between them; Finally, they must be willing to vote on the basis of issues that divide the candidates, and not on some other criteria, such as party identification, or candidate charisma. Finally, they must be willing to vote on the basis of issues that divide the candidates, and not on some other criteria, such as party identification, or candidate charisma. While in an ideal world, citizens would vote for the candidate most proximate to their own issue position, that standard is rarely met, except on issues like the economy that have a direct and immediate impact on our personal lives.

24. Necessary Conditions for Issue Voting

25. Candidate Evaluations In the traits they convey (e.g., honesty, trustworthiness, intelligence); In the traits they convey (e.g., honesty, trustworthiness, intelligence); In the feelings they evoke (e.g., anger, hope, pride, fear); In the feelings they evoke (e.g., anger, hope, pride, fear); There is at least one enduring truth in the study of voting behavior—citizens vote in overwhelming numbers for the presidential candidate they like the most. Candidates are important in at least two ways—

26. Presidential Debates 1960: Kennedy/Nixon debate 1960: Kennedy/Nixon debate 1988: Kitty Dukakis question 1988: Kitty Dukakis question 1992: Clinton/Bush on the economy 1992: Clinton/Bush on the economy 2000: Gore’s personality 2000: Gore’s personality 2004: Kerry as a “flip-flopper,” Bush’s body language 2004: Kerry as a “flip-flopper,” Bush’s body language

27. 1960 Kennedy-Nixon Debate The people who watched the debate on TV felt that Kennedy had won, while those who listened on the radio thought that Nixon had won.

28. Election 2008 ObamaMcCain Likeable65%28% Intelligent5725 Strong leader 5443

29. The Politics of Emotion Some argue that decisions based on emotion are inferior, irrational, superficial, even destructive. Is this a fair criticism?

30. Election 2008 Democrats have an advantage in partisan identification Democrats have an advantage in partisan identification Turnout will be a key factor Turnout will be a key factor Race and gender may play a signficant role Race and gender may play a signficant role According to voters, the top issue is the economy According to voters, the top issue is the economy