2. Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990. 2012 Spring Weather Outlook March Update

3. Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 Seasonal outlook forecasting Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification Offshore/marine forecasting year-round Customized weather websites Direct consultation with a meteorologist Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: fschmude@impactweather.com More information (877) 792-3220 sales@impactweather.com

4. Spring Weather Outlook for 2012 Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño and La Niña risks) January and February Review Tornado impacts during February & March...Why so many? Projected March Flow pattern and predicted analog seasons March weekly and monthly forecast (most vulnerable severe risk areas) April & May T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas) Analog tornado impact areas Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring

7. Developing El Niño? Warm Phase

8. Developing El Niño? Warm Phase PDO Cold Phase Weakening

9. Developing El Niño? Warm Phase PDO Cold Phase Weakening

10. Developing El Niño? Warm Phase PDO Cold Phase Weakening Stronger Easterly Trade Winds Create Enhanced Upwelling Of Cooler Water From Below

11. El Niño La Niña

12. El Niño La Niña Current (~-0.6C)

13. El Niño La Niña Current (~-0.6C) Forecast

14. El Niño La Niña

15. El Niño La Niña

16. El Niño La Niña

17. Forecast ENSO Trends Initiation of EL Niño by June/July Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013 Likely to be weak based on cold phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and projected IOD (Indian Ocean Di-Pole) patterns forecast for the summer and fall

18. FORECASTS

19. L L H H H Storm Track Mean Flow Pattern For January-February, 2012 Lower Than Normal Pressure Higher Than Normal Pressure

20. H H Storm Track Mean Flow Pattern For January-February, 2012 Milder Pacific Air Milder Pacific Air Milder Pacific Air Milder Pacific Air Milder Pacific Air Milder Pacific Air Bitter Cold +6-10F Compressional Warming Compressional Warming

21. 2/29 2/28 2/24 2/18 Tornado Reports During February & Early March, 2012 3/2 -3/3 Why So Many Tornados?

22. Prime Causes for February and early March Tornados Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Strong SE Surface Winds Strong SE Surface Winds Fast SW 5,000’ Winds Fast SW 5,000’ Winds Combination creates high wind shear (i.e. rapid change of wind direction and speed with height!) Causes developing thunderstorms to rotate and produce tornados

23. L H H Projected Flow Pattern For March, 2012 BASED ON: Analog season support (1999, 2000) Recent Weather trends Water temperature profiles

24. MARCH FORECASTS MARCH FORECASTS

25. +10 to +15F +3 to +6F +6 to +10F -1 to -3F -4 to -8F -2 to -4F Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Occasional Showers Occasional Showers Weather Trends for the 2 nd week of March, 2012 STORMY FLASH FLOODING RISK FLASH FLOODING RISK STORMY 8 th -12 th UNSETTLED 8 th, 11 th -12 th UNSETTLED 10 th -14 th SNOW 8 th – 9 th Warmer Than Normal Cooler Than Normal Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Near Normal

27. Noon Thu 6pm Thu 12am Fri 6am Fri Potential Powerful Squall Line

28. Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Weather Trends for the 3 rd week of March, 2012 Cooler Than Normal Near Normal STORMY UNSETTLED Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry MORE HEAVY RAIN MORE HEAVY RAIN UNSETTLED

29. Projected Temperature Outlook for March, 2012

30. Projected Precipitation Outlook for March, 2012 Elevated Flood Risk

31. Projected Precipitation Outlook for March, 2012 Elevated Severe Risk Elevated Severe Risk

32. L Projected Flow Pattern For April-May, 2012 COOLER H H WARMER L

33. Projected Temperature Outlook for April & May, 2012 Cooler Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal +1 to +3F -1 to -3F Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal

34. Below Normal Below Normal Above Normal Projected Precipitation Outlook for April & May, 2012 Elevated Severe Risk Elevated Severe Risk Above Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal

35. Spring Tornado Outbreak During Analog Seasons (1999,2000) May 1999 50 deaths; ~1.9 Billion April 1999 4 deaths Feb 2000 19 deaths March 2000 2 deaths April 2000 1 death April 2000 May, 2000

36. Spring Tornado Outbreak During Analog Seasons (1999,2000)

37. POTENTIAL HIGHER RISK AREA POTENTIAL HIGHER RISK AREA

38. Projected Temperature Outlook for Summer, 2012

39. Projected Precipitation Outlook for Summer, 2012

40. Abnormally Dry (yellow) Moderate Drought (tan) Severe Drought (red) Exceptional Drought (dark red)

42. 0 to 800 scale depicting soil moisture capacity 0 to 200 = 75 to 100% of capacity...MOIST 200 to 400 = 50 to 75% 400 to 600 = 25 to 50% 600 to 800 = 0 to 25%...DRY MOIST Elevated Flood Risk DRY

43. Questions

45. Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 Seasonal outlook forecasting Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification Offshore/marine forecasting year-round Customized weather websites Direct consultation with a meteorologist Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: fschmude@impactweather.com More information (877) 792-3220 sales@impactweather.com