1. 2014 Fire Season Considerations and Outlook SWCC Predictive Services Updated May 13, 2014

2. Seasonal Fire Potential Main Factors 1. Drought 2. Fine Fuels Condition 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation 4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns 5. Monsoon

3. Quick Look Back: 2013 Outlook vs. Significant Fires Difficult to gauge without a better sense of what ‘Normal’ is, but at least seeing most of the big fires in the red and relatively few elsewhere. ALWAYS A WORK IN PROGRESS!

4. Fire Season 2014: Drought Severe+ long term drought still ongoing across much of the region Severe+ long term drought still ongoing across much of the region Drought outlook calls for drought to persist, develop or worsen through the summer most areas…except to potentially improve for western NM Drought outlook calls for drought to persist, develop or worsen through the summer most areas…except to potentially improve for western NM Long term drought impacts now semi-permanent in our outlook methodology Long term drought impacts now semi-permanent in our outlook methodology Best we can hope for is temporary mitigation of drought impacts with any wetter periods Best we can hope for is temporary mitigation of drought impacts with any wetter periods “Increased severity & volatility during fire season” “Increased severity & volatility during fire season”

5. Fire Season 2014: Fine Fuels Substantial periods of above normal precipitation existed across most of the area during monsoon season 2013 to drive warm-season fine fuels growth. Substantial periods of above normal precipitation existed across most of the area during monsoon season 2013 to drive warm-season fine fuels growth. Fine fuel loading and continuity is normal to above normal in general area-wide, in contrast to recent years. Fine fuel loading and continuity is normal to above normal in general area-wide, in contrast to recent years. Areas & periods of spring green-up have complicated, and somewhat reduced, the contribution of fine herbaceous fuels towards fire potential. Areas & periods of spring green-up have complicated, and somewhat reduced, the contribution of fine herbaceous fuels towards fire potential. If/when the fine fuels cure entirely, there will be generally continuous and abundant fine fuels to contribute to fire behavior and spread. If/when the fine fuels cure entirely, there will be generally continuous and abundant fine fuels to contribute to fire behavior and spread. JUNJUL AUG SEP

6. Fire Season 2014: DEC-FEB 2014 Temperature & Precipitation Dry, with warmth west and coolness east. Dry, with warmth west and coolness east. Snowpack below normal. Snowpack below normal. Ongoing dryness a likely contributor to the ongoing and expected drought conditions shown previously. Ongoing dryness a likely contributor to the ongoing and expected drought conditions shown previously. TEMP PRECIP

7. Fire Season 2014: MAR-APR 2014 Temperature & Precipitation High variability! High variability! Temperatures near normal, with warm tilt west and cooler tilt east Temperatures near normal, with warm tilt west and cooler tilt east Periods/areas of above normal precipitation mainly impacting fine fuels green-up…but still overall drier than normal for the area. Periods/areas of above normal precipitation mainly impacting fine fuels green-up…but still overall drier than normal for the area. MAR-APR TEMP MARCH PRECIP APRIL PRECIP

8. Fire Season 2014: MAY – 1 st Half Temperature & Precipitation Highly variable temperatures, but averaging generally near to below normal most areas Highly variable temperatures, but averaging generally near to below normal most areas Dry, with some sparse precipitation. Dry, with some sparse precipitation. Cooler/more stable/higher humidity conditions following windy/dry periods. Cooler/more stable/higher humidity conditions following windy/dry periods. Localized fine fuels green-up (or re-green). Localized fine fuels green-up (or re-green). TEMP PRECIP L L L H UPPER LEVEL PATTERN – END OF 1st WEEK OF MAY 2014 H L

9. Fire Season 2014: MAY – 2 nd Half Temperature & Precipitation Outlook Active trough pattern will maintain changeable fire weather conditions Active trough pattern will maintain changeable fire weather conditions Warmer/drier, followed by windy/dry, followed by much cooler with elevated RH and areas of precipitation...REPEAT! Warmer/drier, followed by windy/dry, followed by much cooler with elevated RH and areas of precipitation...REPEAT! Not much sustained alignment of critical fire weather conditions Not much sustained alignment of critical fire weather conditions TEMP PRECIP L L L H H H FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN – MAY 21-22, 2014 All Told: The month of MAY should come out with below normal rainfall most areas and near to below normal temps H

10. Fire Season 2014: Late Spring & Early Summer Large-scale Weather Pattern Excessive heat likely limited, with trend for near to below normal temperatures Excessive heat likely limited, with trend for near to below normal temperatures Some periodic rainfall impacts north and especially east of the divide as the season progresses, along with increased lightning chances. Driest southern AZ/southwest NM. Some periodic rainfall impacts north and especially east of the divide as the season progresses, along with increased lightning chances. Driest southern AZ/southwest NM. 1 L L H H L 2 H L H H H L 3 HL L L L H HL 4 H L L L H Weekly time series of potential upper level pattern for late MAY>late JUNE (#’s 1>4) shows upper trough over or near the Southwest much of the time. Weekly time series of potential upper level pattern for late MAY>late JUNE (#’s 1>4) shows upper trough over or near the Southwest much of the time. This largely supports a continuance of May weather variability through much of June This largely supports a continuance of May weather variability through much of June Continued minimal sustained alignment of critical fire weather conditions Continued minimal sustained alignment of critical fire weather conditions

11. Fire Season 2014: Monsoon Shift towards El Niño aiding a pattern featuring a weak eastern Pacific trough and weakened monsoon ridge over the Southwest. This would weaken the monsoon circulation and possibly allow weak systems to move in from the west. Shift towards El Niño aiding a pattern featuring a weak eastern Pacific trough and weakened monsoon ridge over the Southwest. This would weaken the monsoon circulation and possibly allow weak systems to move in from the west. Week 1/Week 2 examples (right) show evolution of monsoon ridge being broken down by trough approaching from the west. This could occur several times this summer. Week 1/Week 2 examples (right) show evolution of monsoon ridge being broken down by trough approaching from the west. This could occur several times this summer. JULY-SEPT 2014? L L H L H H L L L L L H L L L L H H H Week 1 – Large Scale Pattern Example Week 2 – Large Scale Pattern Example

12. Fire Season 2014: Monsoon Rainfall? Outlook Impacts: Outlook Impacts: Rainfall: Closer to normal for much of the eastern half of the area, and potentially below normal rainfall for the west Rainfall: Closer to normal for much of the eastern half of the area, and potentially below normal rainfall for the west Temperatures: Trending near to above normal, with warmer temperatures in the persistently drier areas. Temperatures: Trending near to above normal, with warmer temperatures in the persistently drier areas. Substantial uncertainty and month-to-month variability, and this perspective doesn’t include any significant rainfall which might occur in June. Substantial uncertainty and month-to-month variability, and this perspective doesn’t include any significant rainfall which might occur in June. JULY-SEPT 2014 – Possible Rainfall Relative to Average DRY MOIST

13. 2014 Fire Season Factors Summary 1. Drought – Severe+ long-term drought impacting most of the area through fire season, with some potential improvement western NM. Increased severity & volatility overall, especially in heavier dead & live woody fuels with multi-year cumulative impacts. 2. *Fine Fuels Condition – Normal/above normal loading & continuity overall. Mosaic of green-up/re-green will be an ongoing complicating factor. 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation – Averaging out warmer & drier than normal most areas, but with significant variability through spring. 4. *Spring & early Summer Weather Pattern – Pattern supports highly variable temperature & moisture conditions with limited, sustained critical fire weather conditions & the increased potential for some rainfall east of the continental divide. 5. Monsoon – Trending potentially drier than normal west of the divide, especially in late July>August, but still huge uncertainty (and dependency on late spring conditions as well)

14. Fire Season 2014: Combined Fire Potential Factors 1. Drought 2. Fine Fuels Condition 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation 4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns 5. Monsoon (not included) Only factors which would support above normal fire potential are highlighted. Only factors which would support above normal fire potential are highlighted. A more complex/dynamic alignment of factors than some recent years. A more complex/dynamic alignment of factors than some recent years.

15. Fire Season 2014: Number of Factors Aligning to Support Above Normal Seasonal Fire Potential 1. Drought 2. Fine Fuels Condition 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation 4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns 5. Monsoon Monsoon factor excluded due to lack of any anomaly signal, so these numbers represent total out of first 4 factors. Monsoon factor excluded due to lack of any anomaly signal, so these numbers represent total out of first 4 factors. Substantial uncertainty as to whether these factors will align at the same time, which is necessary for this perspective to be meaningful. Substantial uncertainty as to whether these factors will align at the same time, which is necessary for this perspective to be meaningful.

16. 2014 Fire Season Potential Summary Through June: Above Normal fire potential focused central/southeast AZ into southwest NM west of the continental divide. (Drought impacts on heavy & live woody fuels, available fine fuels, max potential for warmth, wind & dryness initially…then an increasing lightning threat in June.) Through June: Above Normal fire potential focused central/southeast AZ into southwest NM west of the continental divide. (Drought impacts on heavy & live woody fuels, available fine fuels, max potential for warmth, wind & dryness initially…then an increasing lightning threat in June.) July/August: Initial monsoon onset, then potential for fire potential to increase west of the divide from late July>August. July/August: Initial monsoon onset, then potential for fire potential to increase west of the divide from late July>August. Overall Monsoon: Trending dry west & moist east, but with possible significant rainfall increase in SEP. Overall Monsoon: Trending dry west & moist east, but with possible significant rainfall increase in SEP. Deciding Factor(s): Ongoing variability in weather patterns and temperature/moisture impacts, including fine fuels condition. Will it get hot enough to expose long-term drought impacts and also trigger a decent monsoon? Deciding Factor(s): Ongoing variability in weather patterns and temperature/moisture impacts, including fine fuels condition. Will it get hot enough to expose long-term drought impacts and also trigger a decent monsoon?

17. 2014 Fire Season Potential: Messages Due to weather variability, fire activity is more likely to be especially episodic this fire season – with significant activity clustered around a relatively few amount of days when all the factors align. Due to weather variability, fire activity is more likely to be especially episodic this fire season – with significant activity clustered around a relatively few amount of days when all the factors align. The peak and lull nature of the season could be especially challenging with regard to maintaining situational awareness and avoiding complacency. When conditions align, we will see advanced fire behavior! The peak and lull nature of the season could be especially challenging with regard to maintaining situational awareness and avoiding complacency. When conditions align, we will see advanced fire behavior! DUE TO LONG TERM DROUGHT: WATCH FOR RAPID DRYING AFTER ANY MOISTURE IMPACTS…OUTSIDE OUR TYPICAL HISTORIC FRAME OF REFERENCE! DUE TO LONG TERM DROUGHT: WATCH FOR RAPID DRYING AFTER ANY MOISTURE IMPACTS…OUTSIDE OUR TYPICAL HISTORIC FRAME OF REFERENCE!

18. END SWCC Predictive Services Next Update: January 2015! Contact: SWCC Predictive Services 505-842-3473 Consult the Outlooks Page (Below) for Updated Information Through Fire Season: http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm