1. TechnologyStrategy

2. What is a Successful Technology Strategy? VALUECAPTURE VALUEDELIVERY VALUE CREATION

3. Effective Strategies Answer 3 Key Questions: How will we Create value? How will we Deliver value? How will we Capture value?

4. Successful strategies are dynamic How will we Create value? How will we Deliver value? How will we Capture value?

5. And have real resources in place behind them….

6. Why have a strategy? 1. To make choices

7. Overcommitment destroys productivity

8. Why is it so hard to kill project #26? Its a good project!Its a good project! Good managers can meet stretch goalsGood managers can meet stretch goals (and Im a good manager) (and Im a good manager) Making difficult decisions takes time & energyMaking difficult decisions takes time & energy Its very hard to kill projects without a strategy Its very hard to kill projects without a strategy

9. Reasons to have a strategy: 2. To be able to change it

10. A Key Framework: The industry life cycle Era of Ferment/ Disruption Dominant design emerges Incremental Innovation Maturity

11. The Industry Life Cycle as an S curve Performance Takeoff Maturity Ferment Time Discontinuity

12. The S-curve Maps Major Transitions Performance Takeoff Maturity Ferment Discontinuity Time

13. Transitions often challenge existing organizations severely

14. But they also create major opportunity Corning glass – Cookware to optical fiber HP – Instrumentation to computers IBM – Mainframes to PCs to Services Merck – Random drug discovery to genetics and genomics

15. Understanding the life cycle is critical since itshapes strategic choices: Understanding the life cycle is critical since it shapes strategic choices: Takeoff Maturity Ferment Technology Markets Competition Organization

16. Course Outline: How will we create value? – PDAs, EMI and the Cat Scanner How will we capture value? – Surface Logix, Abgenix, Ember, Mercury How will we deliver value? – Siemens, Intel, Synthes, XTV, P&G, Alza/Ciba Actually Doing Strategy – Kirkham Instruments, Kodak, Nokia

17. S curves and Technological trajectories Read: Foster, R. (1986). "The S-curve: A New Forecasting Tool." Think: What determines the limits of an S curve? Can such limits be determined ex post? How would one determine what to map on the vertical axis of an S curve? Try: On the course web site you will find an excel program that contains performance specifications for nearly every PDA ever introduced. Draw one or more S curves for the industry. Speculate about the ndustrys future evolution.

18. Next class: First 2 page paper due the following week. Use the next class to choose an industry or firm. Plot and describe the relevant S curve(s) for your industry. Is the industry likely to be subject to natural technological limits? Why or why not? Has it experienced discontinuities? Is it likely to do so soon?