1. 1 WTO Statistics Division Statistics@WTO.org Trends in Services Trade under GATS Recent Developments Symposium on Assessment of Trade in Services World Trade Organization 14-15 March 2002

2. 2 To which extent can statistics help in the Assessment of Trade in Services ? n Major relevant Statistical Frameworks Statistics on Domestic Economic Activity Sectoral Statistics/Quantitative Indicators Balance of Payments Statistics Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) Statistics n Statistics and Modes of supply n Specialization Indicators n Conclusions

3. 3 Statistics on Domestic Economic Activity Sources National Accounts, employment statistics, business statistics Examples of information Output, value added, number of employees, turnover Why relevant? Information on market size, competitiveness, employment generation Who collects? Country comparable statistics are collected by UN, OECD, IMF, and Eurostat, but national sources are much richer Economic activity

4. 4 Share of Services Value Added in GDP Selected Countries, 1999 Economic activity

5. 5 Share of Services Value Added in GDP by Economic Groups Developed countries Developing countries World Economic activity percent

6. 6 Quantitative Indicators Coverage Sector-specific quantitative information Examples of specific services sectors Transport: persons or cargo transported Telecommunication: minutes of international telephone traffic Why relevant? No price distortion. Meaningful, because specifically defined for the sector in question But... Do not provide for comparability across sectors Quantitative indicators

7. 7 Note: : International telecommunication transactions (BOP imports + exports) represent mostly payments between telecommunication operators for termination services International Telecommunication Transactions and Minutes of International Telephone Traffic International telephone traffic BOP imports and exports Quantitative indicators

8. 8 International tourist arrivals Travel exports in Travel exports in $ Tourist Arrivals and BOP Travel Exports France, Italy and Spain Quantitative indicators

9. 9 Balance of Payments Statistics Coverage Transactions between residents and non residents on goods, services, income, transfers, financial claims, and liabilities Concepts & definitions 5th edition of IMF BOP Manual (BPM5) Why relevant? Information on international trade in services is widely comparable across countries Who collects? IMF, OECD, and Eurostat at the international level BOP

10. 10 BOP Services Goods GDP

11. 11 Exports of Commercial Services by Economic Groups - Shares in Total 1990 Developed countries Developing countries 1995 Developed countries Developing countries 2000 Developed countries Developing countries 25% 75% BOP

12. 12 Commercial Services Exports Shares by Regions BOP

13. 13 BPM5 Major Services Categories 3. Communication services 4. Construction services 5. Insurance services 6. Financial services 7. Computer and Information services 8. Royalties and licence fees 9. Other business services 10. Personal, cultural and recreational services Commercial services: 1. Transport 2. Travel 3 -10 Other commercial Services BOP 11. Government services

14. 14 Structure of Commercial Services Exports 29% 23% 34% 32% 37% 45% BOP

15. 15 Structure of Other Services Exports, 1998 43% 10% 4% 14% 10% 3% 13% 3% BOP

16. 16 Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) Statistics Information covered Operations of foreign affiliates, such as turnover and employment Direction of trade Inward : activity of foreign affiliates in the compiling economy Outward: foreign affiliates of the compiling economy that are established abroad Concepts & definitions Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services Foreign Affiliates are those affiliates in which the foreign investor holds a majority of the ordinary shares or voting power Why relevant ? Provides information on GATS mode 3 - commercial presence FATS

17. 17 Share of Services Turnover of Foreign Affiliates in National Total - Selected Countries FATS

18. 18 Sales by GATS Modes of Supply: Statistical Approximation Modes

19. 19 Specialization Indicators n Often named specialization ratios, comparative advantage, or export specialization n generally defined as the ratio of exports of a service category to total exports of services, or goods and services, or GDP; often relative to the average value for all countries n Can be computed for countries, or country groups, and at the level of modes of supply, using proxies n Limitations should be recognized when interpreting results (lack of country coverage, data reliability, classification detail) Indicators

20. 20 Commercial Services minus Travel (Mode 1) Major Exporters and Export Specialization, 2000 Major exportersExport specialization Billion US$% (relative to exports of commercial services) Indicators

21. 21 Travel Services (Mode 2) Major Exporters and Export Specialization, 2000 Billion $% (relative to exports of commercial services) Major exportersExport specialization Indicators

22. 22 FDI Stock in Services (Mode 3 proxy) OECD, Major Host Countries (inward) and Outward Specialization, 1999 (%, relative to GDP) Billion $ Inward FDI stock, major countriesOutward FDI stock, specialization Indicators

23. 23 Compensation of Employees (Mode 4 proxy) Major Importers and Export specialization, 2000 Major importersExport specialization Billion $% (relative to exports of commercial services) Indicators

24. 24 Trade in Services Statistics: Recent Improvements Thanks to BPM5, now detailed services categories are available Thanks to MSITS, more detailed categories will be available FATS BOP Concepts, definitions and classification available (MSITS) Concepts, definitions and classification available (MSITS) Data collection started in many countries Data collection started in many countries The bulk of services transactions covered by GATS may be assessed The bulk of services transactions covered by GATS may be assessed Conclusions Modes BOP and FATS are a first step in providing information by modes of supply Statistics were dramatically improved recently:

25. 25 Trade in Services Statistics : Remaining Weaknesses Conclusions BOP statistics lack reliability for detailed categories Documentation on data coverage and deviations from standards is rarely available detailed categories are not reported by all countries BOP FATS Lack of reliability due to the infancy stage of FATS statistics countries Lack of comparability across countries Developing countries have not started compilation yet Developing countries have not started compilation yet Modes There is no one-to-one correspondence between statistics and modes of supply Statistics still need to be dramatically improved:

26. 26 The Task Force on Statistics of International Trade in Services Conclusions The Task Force completed the Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services n The Manual will be published by the UN very soon; it is available on the UN and OECD web pages n The Task Force will now focus on compilation guidance