1. Trade & Environment prof. Bjørn Lomborg www.lomborg.org

2. Background for Environmental Concern n Need to remove our myths –Doomsday is not neigh –Thus, we dont have to act in desperation n Essential information necessary to make the best possible decisions –There is only one bag of money but many good uses

3. Are things really getting better? n We have more leisure time, greater security and fewer accidents, more education, more amenities, higher incomes, fewer starving, more food and a healthier and longer life. –Both for the industrialized and developing world

4. Calories for developed and developing countries, 1961-2030 FAO 2001

5. Resources - is there enough?

6. Oil, Consumption Time Simon et al. 1994 & EIA 1997, 1999, 2000

7. Prices on Raw Materials, 1845-2000 Economist 2001

8. Pollution - are we undermining welfare?

9. Particles and SO 2 in London, 1585-1995 Brimblecombe 1977, Laxen & Thomsen 1987, Elsom 1997 SO 2 Smoke

10. And the developing world? n Pollution has a tendency to get first worse with economic growth, then better n Thus, both growth and environment 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 100100010000100000 Income per capita, 1985 PPP$ 1972 1986 World Bank 1992, Shafik 1994 Particles, g/m 3

11. Trade and the concern for the Environment n Concern easily becomes first world protectionism –Air pollution is a form of comparative advantage n Pollution of poverty –Focus on poverty alleviation –Doesnt mean no concerns but important to focus on need for free market access n Especially for agriculture and textiles

12. The worth of the 21 st century with focus on different concerns IPCC 2000