1. Observational versus Experimental The example about drug testing and drug use is A. Observational B. Experimental C. Logical D. Case study

2. What happens when an association is not perfect? A. it is not causal B. the cases were not randomly selected C. there could still be a causal effect D. we have proven causation

3. Cause & Effect: Cell Phones and NFL Football

4. CURRENT DEBATE Q: Do cell phones cause cancer?

6. Cause and Effect Cause (X): Cell Phone “use” Frequency, Proximity, Models, Towers Effects (Y): Degraded Health Cancer Brain, Skin, Other Organs Hearing Loss

7. How would we study the relationship? How would we study the relationship? What do we need to do? How would we convince ourselves that our research was believable? How would we convince others to believe our research?

8. The Evidence

18. Should we worry?

19. The Contrary Evidence

23. Does Evidence Matter?

26. Let’s merge problems…

27. Public Policy Create new phones Locate towers Prevent certain types of uses Prevent certain types of users (Children, Pregnant women) Education to change behaviors Consider the opportunity costs Do nothing. (Don’t worry about it.)

29. Q: Does NFL Football Reduce Crime?

30. The Controversy Ray Lewis Speaks Out

32. Ray Lewis as told to ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio: “Do this research if we don’t have a season — watch how much evil, which we call crime, watch how much crime picks up, if you take away our game,” The NFL lockout affects “way more than us” — the owners and the players. “There’s too many people that live through us, people live through us.” “Yeah, walk in the streets, the way I walk the streets, and I’m not talking about the people you see all the time.” When asked why he thought crime would increase if the NFL doesn’t play games this year, Lewis said: “There’s nothing else to do, Sal.”

33. Cause & Effect Cause (X): NFL Football Effect (Y): Crime Rate Hypothesis: NFL Football reduces Crime.

35. Ravens RB Ray Rice comes to Lewis’ defense: “Any time Ray [Lewis] speaks about something, it comes from his heart. He hit on a point where people are really struggling. It doesn’t necessarily have to be us that are struggling because we might make a few more dollars than other people. But what about the people that work in the concession stands? What about the people that work at the facility that had to take pay cuts? What about the people that got laid off?”

36. An Alternative Perspective on The Causes of Crime

37. A more complex explanation Poverty leads to crime… BUT NFL football impacts employment and hence keeps some people from falling into poverty OR NFL football as entertainment mitigates the effects of poverty on crime by deflecting attention from an impoverished existence

38. The Evidence Supporting the Lewis Hypothesis What type of evidence do we need? Variation in NFL activity – Temporal (Season versus off-season) – Locational (Does it matter if you have a home city or home state team?) Crime rates – National, State, Local – Types of crime

39. The Evidence Supporting the Lewis Hypothesis What type of evidence do we need? Controls – State of the economy (unemployment, poverty) – Weather – Interest in football Problems – Multicollinearity

40. The Contrary Evidence Superbowl Sunday is often one of the highest crime rate days of the year as angry husbands and boyfriends wreak domestic violence on their supposed “loved ones”.

41. NFL Off Season Perhaps employing these individuals as football players reduces crime. In that case, a lockout or strike would increase crime.

42. Hypotheses about politics? Return to Downs, Economic Theory of Democracy. Your hypotheses. What questions do you have about the political world? How would we study them?