1. Energy descent and New Zealand agriculture Solis Norton November 24, 2011 For correspondence: Solis.norton@johnes.org.nz

2. Introduction Exponential human growth is unsustainable - Bartlett Same lecture, 1600 times since 1969 – no effect Western world (ag) continues to intensify ‘Peak everything’ is upon us IPCC and PCE reports call for redesign of agriculture toward resilience and genuine sustainability Energy descent = de-intensification of agriculture What does this mean?

3. Challenges to NZ ag Peak Oil - Climate change Environmental constraints Water constraints Market instability reflects increasing to maintain BAU Agriculture faces unprecedented challenge

4. Drivers of energy use in ag

5. Fuel Fertiliser Impact of oil price on these drivers Impact of less of these drivers (like urea) Globally, wider utilisation at lower rates is real opportunity Depends on equitable distribution… Greater equity = faster transition for us

6. Transition toward organics Declining energy is synonymous with a transition toward organic production systems Characteristics of organic systems Less energy intensive fertiliser Lower stocking rate Overall lower input per ha Lower output per ha ~25% Greater resilience to shocks?

7. Output energy

8. Efficient vs intensive Organic production systems are less intensive Lower inputs/ha Lower outputs/ha Organic systems are not more efficient Ability to convert input energy to output energy is same as conventional No scope to improve this on the scale required to match descent.

9. EROI

10. Food production will decline Do we grow foods that are in demand? Prioritise foods with a high EROI… cheap nutrition? Is this a risk or an opportunity? On what scale? Need a plan for this transition processes It will take time and energy to devise this plan How long? – 5 years? 10 years? A plan and timeline

11. Transition experience

12. Building resilience Change ag currency from money to energy Avoid ‘lost decades’ following turbulence This will take us further into descent The longer we wait the harder it will be to effect the necessary changes

13. Leadership group New Zealand has agriculture and the All Blacks Set a precedent for other countries to follow Need a starting point and a new language… Initiate with small pan-industry leadership group Minimal governmental input, 300k/yr Create a plan and estimate a timeline Communicate

14. Group composition Chairman Energy specialist(s) Industry reps (dairy, sheep/beef, etc) Economist Doer Maximum number of 8 people Linked to key NZ agriculture bodies

15. Existing pathways FarmsOnLine – contact all the farmers! FarmIQ – demand driven integrated value chain for red meat Fonterra Meat and Wool NZ DINZ MAF Farmer groups…

16. Discussion Driven by profit or sustainability? The coming challenges are unavoidable No framework or even language exists to meet them The time for extensive research to assess plans grows short A small dedicated group is one alternative to investigate options and communicate issues Cheap to run and well connected, it could offer real benefit Action while action is still easy.