1. Class 10 Systems Mapping Workshop © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.

2.  A rticulate System Boundaries  E stimate Stakeholder Influence  I llustrate a System Diagram  O utline Forces of Change  U tilize a Force Field Analysis © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

3. System Boundaries Nuclear Energy System Map ELECTRIC Energy Nuclear Energy Sector Organizational Boundary Macro-environment Boundary Operating Environment Boundary © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

4. Stakeholders Nuclear Energy System Map ELECTRIC Energy Nuclear Energy Sector Stakeholders 1.Electric Plant Operators 2.Grid Operators 3.Fuel Companies a.Coal b.Nat Gas c.Oil 4.Technology Providers a.Smart Grid b.Renewables c.Electric Auto d.Nuclear 5.Energy Users a.Employers b.Consumers c.Voters 6.Government a.(U.S., Internat’l) b.Community 7.Environment(alists) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

5. Stakeholders Nuclear Energy System Map Nuke Operators Fuel Co’s. NRC Coal Plant Operators Nat. Gas Plant Operators Solar/Wind Farm Developers Energy Users Government Agencies Gov’t Energy Labs Coal Companies Nat Gas Companies Environmentalists Oil Companies Auto Companies Tech Companies Voters Grid Operators Los Alamos Elected Officials © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

6. Hi Interest Low Interest Hi Influence Low Influence Assessing Stakeholder Influence StakeholderPrimary Concerns / Objectives Fuel CompaniesEmission limits, regs, Subsidies GovernmentConstituent satisfaction – Reelection Users (Voters)JOBS, economic growth, cheap energy Tech ProvidersR&D support – possible breakthru Innov Fuel Co’s Users (Voters) Government Generators Environmentalists Tech Providers Transp. Sector © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

7. System Diagram Mostly Fossil Fuel Mostly Oil Poss. Conversion to Elect or H2 Fleet Fossil Fuel Nuclear Renewables Abundant Domestic Supply Nat. Gas Solar Externalized Environmental Impacts Fission Fusion Safety, Spent Fuel, Proliferation Issues (Actual/Perceived) Wind Other Coal Gov’t Subsidies & Regulations Societal Pressure for Clean Energy Economic Pressure for Cost Effective Energy Intermittent Supply Base Load Supply Feasibility Cost Feasibility No Carbon Emissions Political Pressure for “Energy Independence” Smart Grid Dist. Generation Demand Response © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

8. Drivers of Change 1.Growing Energy Demand 2.Fossil Fuel Recovery Tech a.Fracking b.Tight Oil 3.Regulatory Frameworks a.GHG Emissions b.Fracking 4.R&D Investment a.Nuclear b.Fossil & Renewables c.China, et.al. 5.Geopolitical Turbulence 6.Conversion to electric fleet (?) Constraints of Change 1.Externalized Costs 2.Existing Infrastructure 3.Globalization 4.R&D Effectiveness 5.Political Influence of Incumbents 6.NIMBY 7.Public Fear of Nuclear Safety a.Actual b.Perceived c.Proliferation d.Waste Disposal/ Reprocessing Forces of Change Nuclear Energy System Map © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

11. ForceTrajectoryImpact Demographic Economic Governmental Environmental Societal Technological © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

12.  Evidence-Based Foresight  Class Preparation  Read “Evidence-Based Management”  Current Assessments due ___________ © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.