1. European Federation for Transport & Environment Aviation and the environment: status and technological prospects Jos Dings 30 November 2004

2. www.t-e.nu About T&E Members in:  Austria  Belgium  Czech & Slovak Rep  Denmark  Estonia  France  Germany  Greece  Hungary  Italy  Netherlands  Norway  Poland  Portugal  Romania  Slovenia  Spain  Sweden  Switzerland  UK

3. www.t-e.nu Economic benefits of air transport into perspective Contribution to EU economy (1998): approx. 1% Contribution to EU employment (1998): approx. 0.2% Contribution to global warming (2000): ca 7% according to latest insights Contribution to noise nuisance : 15-20% (Germany 2002)

4. www.t-e.nu Global Warming due to aviation in 1992 (IPCC 1999) -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 CO 2 O 3 - formation contrails Total* Radiative forcing [mW/m 2 ] * Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate Methane reduction Cirrus clouds 49 mW/m 2 (3.5% of total)

5. www.t-e.nu Global Warming due to aviation in 2000 (AAC 2003) -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 CO 2 O 3 - formation contrails Total* Radiative forcing [mW/m 2 ] * Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate Methane reduction Cirrus clouds 116 mW/m 2 (ca 7% of total)

6. www.t-e.nu Climate change: baseline trends Industry: 70% improvement has been achieved per available seat kilometre …. … yes, but compared with 1 st generation jets Meanwhile volume growth over 1000 % 1994: B777 with GE90 engine Since then: no substantial further improvements

7. www.t-e.nu Overview fuel reduction technology Engine ‘bleed air’ elimination Pressure & bypass ratios High-speed propeller ? Drag Aircraft shape Wingspan and wingtips grooves, cleaning Weight Design Materials: composites e.g. GLARE

8. www.t-e.nu New projects 2006: Airbus A380 Competes with Boeing 747-400 555 till even 800 seats Approx. 10% more fuel efficient, half the noise ? Wing span (80 x 80) and weight limit reductions Boeing: 747A can compete (+3.5 m, +35 pax, 7E7 engine, decision 2005) 2008: Boeing 7E7; Airbus 350 ? Compete with A330, B757/767 200-260 seats Approx. 15% more fuel efficient ? Airbus: A330 ‘light’ (+7E7 engines) can compete Airbus A350 not yet official

9. www.t-e.nu Boeing 7E7 ‘Dreamliner’: 15% better than competitors ?

10. www.t-e.nu Airbus A380: 15% better than Boeing 747 ‘Jumbo Jet’ ?

11. www.t-e.nu Reactions to CO2 + NOx charges in EU airspace Total CO2 emissions some 115 Mtonnes EUR 30/tonne CO2, EUR 3.6 per kg NOx ( = approx. 12 ct/l) Revenue raising: Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 9 & 10% Demand and supply impacts equal Revenues EUR 5 bln (35 EU budget) Revenue neutral (feebate/rebate): Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 5 & 6% Only supply-side effects No revenues Fleet renewal !!!!

12. www.t-e.nu Two sources on supply-side (technology) responses

13. www.t-e.nu Contrails and cirrus Warm the earth probably more than CO2 Depend on ambient & exhaust gas temperature & humidity New engines cause more ! Solution: Air Traffic Management (EUROCONTROL !) Military aircraft can avoid them for visibility reasons)

14. www.t-e.nu Alternative: hydrogen ? Makes water and NOx emissions probably worse Much heavier aircraft, but lighter fuel Hydrogen production ? Many believe kerosene will be one of last oil products

15. www.t-e.nu Local air pollution In particular: NOx and PM Problem NOx : Modern engines: less CO2, less PM, less HC, but more NOx ! Problem PM: massive health issue

16. www.t-e.nu NOx reduction potential Main approach: improved combustion chamber technology Staged combustion Variable airflow inlets More revolutionary & most promising: Lean premixed pre-vaporised LPP Rich burn Quick quench Lean burn (RQL) Reduction up to 90% claimed

17. www.t-e.nu NOx emission factors vs ICAO standards NOx emission factor is growing, despite regulation 0 20 40 60 80 100 197519801985199019952000200520102015 year [%] 0 20 40 60 80 100 [%] ICAO-standard (rel.) Fleet average EI NOx (rel.) (NASA forecast for 2015) CAEP/ 2-standard CAEP/ 4-standard CAEP/ 6-standard

18. www.t-e.nu Noise: lost opportunities ‘Chapter 4’ in place in 2006 Only 3 d(A) quieter than 1978 ‘Chapter 3’ standards 2001: > 95% already complied Best aircraft: six times quieter than Ch.4 Airports now hold the key

19. www.t-e.nu Aircraft can be much, much quieter !!!

20. www.t-e.nu Trade-offs Between CO2 and NOx : High pressure ratio engines Between CO2 and contrails/cirrus Low temp. exhaust gas -> more contrails Between CO2 and noise Steep climb = more fuel In policy discussions: Favourite hobby of industry Less serious than often thought correct incentives ALL impacts needed

21. www.t-e.nu The future perspective, climate Growth stays at 4-5%/yr Climate BaU CO2: 1% p.a. improvement, 3-4% growth Contrails/cirrus: > 5% p.a. growth ?. Climate technically feasible CO2 improvement up to 2% p.a. ? Contrails/cirrus: avoidance largeley feazible

22. www.t-e.nu The future perspective, noise & NOx NOx BaU: no improvement, > 5% p.a. growth ? Incentives: large improvements possible Noise: BaU: improvement smaller than growth Incentives: improvement feasible ! Co-ordinated efforts by airports (noise charges, noise ceilings)

23. European Federation for Transport & Environment T&E is Europe’s primary NGO campaigning on a Europe wide level for an environmentally responsible approach to transport. info@t-e.nuinfo@t-e.nu Rue de la Pépinière 1 | 1000 Brussels Tel.: +32 2-502 99 09 | Fax: +32 2-502 99 08 | www.t-e.nuwww.t-e.nuwww.t-e.nu