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Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC AMPO Annual Conference Oct. 2 - 5, 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC AMPO Annual Conference Oct. 2 - 5, 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC AMPO Annual Conference Oct. 2 - 5, 2007

2 Commissioners Mary Peters Secretary of Transportation — Chairperson Jack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling — Vice Chair Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of Transportation Maria Cino Deputy Secretary of Transportation Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell University Steve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission Frank McArdle General Contractors Association of New York Steve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office Depot Patrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking Association Matt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad Tom Skancke CEO, The Skancke Company Paul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation

3 Statutory Mandate Study current condition and future needs of surface transportation system Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel tax Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons Report to Congress by January 1,2008

4 Field Hearings September 20-21, 2006Dallas, TX November 15 – 16, 2006New York, NY Memphis, TN February 21 – 22, 2007Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA March 19, 2007 Washington, DC April 18 – 19, 2007Chicago, IL Minneapolis, MN

5 Freight

6 China was 33% of US imports in 2000 and will be 50% by 2010

7 1,437 6,165 (TEUs in thousands) 2020 2004 Houston 13,101 LA/LB 1,010 2,152 Miami 2,043 3,382 Oakland 4,478 15,835 NY/NJ 1,809 5,566 Virginia 1,860 6,639 Charleston 1,662 9,420 Savannah 1,798 4,396 Tacoma 1,776 2,557 Seattle 59,420 Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade Volume of trade: 2004 and 2020 Source: U.S. DOTv

8 More trade means more domestic freight movements… West region +65% South region +71% Central region +71% Northeast region +58% U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020 U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020 2020 2000 % change 2000-2020 62%44%39%181%57% 10,700 17,296 2,009 2,891 1,054 1,470 13,772 21,682 9 9 25 (tons in millions) Source: U.S. DOT

9 Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 4% 1% 9% 3% 2% 0% 7% 3% 1% 40% 74% 67% 16% 40% 6% <1% 6% 2% 13% 3% TonsValueTon-Miles Percent s Truck Rail Water Air Pipeline Multiple Modes Other/Unknown Modes Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b. Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances

10 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 1830185018701890191019301950197019902010 Class I Railroads Track-Miles Owned Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads Rail Network Today Today’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design

11 Metro Mobility

12 In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually Source: Texas Transportation Institute

13 Source: America 2050

14 Top Dozen Metro Areas Source: U.S. Census

15 Metros Are Engines of Economic Growth Combined GDP of top dozen metro areas exceeds combined economic output of 35 states New York metro area ranks 10 th in the world, with a larger economy than India, South Korea or Mexico Los Angeles and Chicago metro areas rank 18 th and 19 th — each larger than Belgium, Sweden or Taiwan Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors

16 Metros Capture Huge Market Share 10 Megaregions Top Dozen Metro Areas 1Share of U.S. Population 68%33% 2Share of Traffic Congestion 92%70% 3Share of GDP 78%39% 4Share of Transit Ridership 93%76% 5Share of Population Exposure to Criteria Pollutants 94%64% Sources: U.S. Census, Texas Transportation Institute, U.S. Conference of Mayors, EPA

17 U.S. Population Change, 2000 –2050 Source: Woods & Poole 2002; University of Pennsylvania School of Design

18 Fuel Efficiency (“Energy Independence”)

19 U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles 1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG

20 International Fuel Economy Comparison Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards for new-sale light-duty vehicles Source: UC Berkeley

21 Source: U.S DOE World and U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Compared 1 WorldU.S. 14% Transportation 28% 17% Industrial 30% 22% Power Stations NA 3% Waste Disposal/Treatment NA 10% Land Use & Biomass Burning NA 10% Residential & Commercial 34% 11% Fossil Fuel Production NA 13% Agricultural Byproducts 8% Sources: US DOE and EPA

22 Is the Public Ready for Change? Source: The New York Times / CBS News Poll, April 2007

23 Safety

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26 U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities Per 100 Million VMT Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004

27 U.S. Traffic Deaths Far Exceed Casualties of War Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004

28 What’s Broken?

29 Environmental Impact Statement Processing Time (FY 1998 – 2006) Source: FHWA

30 Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process Source: Holland & Knight

31 Street and Highway Construction Costs Have Increased Dramatically Over the Past Few Years Source: AGC

32 Finance

33 Highway Account Cash Balance Source: FY 2008 President’s Mid-session Projections

34 Mass Transit Account Cash Balance Source: FY 2008 President’s Mid-session Projections

35 Year 600 Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015) 100 200 300 400 500 200620092012201520182021202420272030 Year-of-Expenditure Dollars (in Billions) Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015) Revenue Cost to Maintain Cost to Improve National Funding Gap Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

36 State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax State Cents per Gallon 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 NYCTMINVFLRIINOHMEWVIDORSDMDNDMNIANHDCTXVIMSNMOKNJAK CAILWIPAHIWANCMTNEGAKSUTMADECOARTNALLAVTAZKYMOSCWY Excise MFT Additional MFT Source: American Petroleum Institute As of April 2006

37 Recent Public Private Partnerships Source: Public Works Financing Project Location Intermodal Projects in Green Highway Projects in Blue Transit Projects in Yellow Reno Rail Corridor SR 125 Toll Road - Hudson Bergen Light Rail Line Chicago Skyway Asset Sale Dulles Greenway Miami Intermodal Center Central Texas Turnpike Pocahontas Parkway Camden Trenton Light Rail Line San Joaquin Hills Toll Road Foothill Eastern Toll Road Alameda Corridor -Trans Texas Corridor Denver E-470 Northwest Parkway NM 44 (US 550) Southern Connector Hiawatha Light Rail Line Jamaica JFK Airtrain Tacoma Narrows Bridge Osceola Parkway Las Vegas Monorail I-15 Reconstruction AZ-17 Indiana Toll Road Asset Sale CREATE

38 “Our unity as a nation is sustained by free communication of thought and by easy transportation of people and goods... Together the unifying forces of our communication and transportation systems are dynamic elements in the very name we bear — United States. Without them, we would be a mere alliance of many separate parts.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1955

39 For More Information: www.transportationfortomorrow.org


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