1. Long Term Sustainable Development Strategy, Latvia 2030 Process so far and development scenarios Starting with values…

2. Rural Areas (293) September 2007Cultural Transformation Tools Positive Values Economic growth Job security Material wealth Prosperity Economic growth Job security Material wealth Prosperity Governmental efficiency Caring for elderly Caring for the disadvantaged Environmental awareness Caring for elderly Caring for the disadvantaged Environmental awareness Concern for future generations World peace Social justice Concern for future generations World peace Social justice

3. Regional Centres (219) September 2007Cultural Transformation Tools Positive Values Affordable housing Economic growth Job security Affordable housing Economic growth Job security Family Caring for elderly Environmental awareness Caring for the disadvantaged Caring for elderly Environmental awareness Caring for the disadvantaged Children Concern for future generations Social justice Children Concern for future generations Social justice Honesty

4. Larger Cities (159) September 2007Cultural Transformation Tools Positive Values Affordable housing Economic growth Job security Prosperity Material wealth Affordable housing Economic growth Job security Prosperity Material wealth Governmental efficiency Caring for elderly Caring for the disadvantaged Environmental awareness Quality of life Caring for elderly Caring for the disadvantaged Environmental awareness Quality of life Concern for future generations Human rights Concern for future generations Human rights

5. The time horizon of an average Latvia’s inhabitant is 18 months. Notwithstanding, in 2007 there were 0.4 loans per inhabitant. An average medium to long term loan term was 18 years. An average amount due every month is 350 USD. 86 % of all funds are kept in low yield form with yield not more than 50% of inflation. Facts 81% of inhabitants have not heard anything about sustainability or sustainable life style In 2030 demographic dependency ratio would be 57% (currently 46%), an average age 44 and the population decrease by 12.6% from the current. … think short term do not care much about sustainability...getting older...brain drain for real In 2004 and 2005 49976 inhabitants acquired higher (University level) education, and 18% went to work outside the country (not continue studies).

6. Pupil and student decrease by 2025

7. Optimistic scenario of GDP and labour productivity growth - IKP pieaugums % European Central Bank, June 2007

8. Easterlin paradox at play

10. Key tenets Happy people living in a welfare state Sustainable and healthy life styles Creative, tolerant and youthful society Cooperation based competitiveness State as a fastability partner Strategic development dilemmas Social participation forums, discussions, expert debates, media coverage, www.Latvija2030.lv Four long term development scenarios Social participation forums, discussions, expert debates, media coverage, www.Latvija2030.lv Preferred version and 1 st edition Public consultations Peer Review and recommendations Value based approach - vision Long-term sustainable development strategy reports Background Review – social trends  Competitiveness and resources  Energy and transport  Survey reports on life satisfaction  A review of public service planning documents  Strategic development dilemmas  Development Scenarios draft Research and analytical reports Local and foreign peer reviews, twelve brainstorms Three population surveys (N=1000) values, attitudes, habits, sustainable life styles

11. Latvia occupies 23 place in EU-25 inovation ranking High tech share in exports 3.2% (19% of the EU-25 average) International patent applications- 4% of the EU average 90 national inventions patents registered in 2007 Latvia’s scientists work as ‘small partners’ in larger international scientific projects Expenditure on research and development – 0.57% from GDP (Sweden – 4%) 54.5% - of students in social sciences, entrepreneurship and law (34.3% EU average) 5.2% - natural sciences, mathematics and compsci (10.7%) 9.5% - engineering, construction (14.7%) Science, innovations Education

12. Development scenarios – contrast method Identification of trends and issues Scoring of issues and trends Identification of drivers Building scenarios Stakeholder workshops

13. The Dutch biotechnology development scenarios 2030 Avots: http://www.efmn.info/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=68

14. Scenarios Latvia 2030 C. Successful, large companies A. Efficient and strong state D. Civil society B. FOCU- service providers Resource concentration Resource dispersal Contract between an individual and the state Self- regulation of social groupings Economic life, entrepreneurship Energy, environment Spatial development Risks and social costs Resources Power Public governance Education and Culture Migration Scenario directions:

15. Key building ideas for the strategy – a) modes of livelihood, habitat, life satisfaction b) handling risks and challenges c) positioning within global value regimes

21. Thank you for your attention!