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Published byAldous Morgan Modified over 9 years ago
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The most recent energy projection from the Danish Energy Authority Morten Werner February 6th, 2008
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Background Regularly projection of energy demand, production and conversion The Baseline is used in policy evaluation and monitoring Interpertation: ”Business as Usual” Alternative scenarios
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DEA Model framework RAMSESEMMA Macro scenario Prices Electricity prices Technology Final energy demand in industry, service and households Powergeneration and district heating
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Important exogenous Energy prices Macro economic growth Technology Policy Power generation in the other nordic countries
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Fossil fuel prices Fossile fuel prices updated according to World Energy outlook 2007 DKR/USD-rate Minor effects on prices measured in DKR on average in 2007 CO2-price
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Wind power, prices Prices 30-50 % increased compared to previous baseline Expected efficiency gain lower than previous baseline
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Macro economic growth Most recent medium/long term economic projektion from Ministry of Finance Higher expected growth rates in medium and long term compared to previous baseline
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Policy Energy savings policy, 2005 New standards for buildings Biofuels, 5.75% from 2010
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Nordic power generation Denmark Offshore wind power (Horns Rev (2009), Rød Sand II (2011) 2 x 200 MW) Excisting coal-fired power plants upgraded and enabling biomass co-firing Other nordic countries Finland: Nuclear power plants (2012 and 2018) Sweden: Postponed phase out off nuclear power
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Main results
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Gross energy demand New statistical information Macroeconomic growth Transport Less wind (long run) Increased efficiency, North Sea
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Renewable energy Renewable energy - share of gross energy20062011201520202025 Basis 200715.6%18.8%19.3%18.4%17.8% - excl. biofuels 17.7%18.2%17.3%16.6% Basis 2006 17.7%17.9%20.3%21.8%
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Wind power, production
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More information WWW.ENS.DK Documentation (in danish) Tables
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