1. LEAP analysis of mitigation options for greenhouse gas emissions. Palmerston North case study

2. Setting the scene TLA’s need to develop strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions TLA’s need to develop strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions How to choose between various options? How to choose between various options? What targets to aim for? What targets to aim for?

3. LEAP: what is it Long Range Energy Alternative Planning system Long Range Energy Alternative Planning system Computer Modelling tool Computer Modelling tool Used to model energy use and greenhouse gas emissions Used to model energy use and greenhouse gas emissions Energy demand=Activity level *Energy intensity Energy demand=Activity level *Energy intensity

4. Method Model current energy use Model current energy use Calculate emissions for fuels and technologies Calculate emissions for fuels and technologies Project activity levels and energy intensity into the future e.g. 2030 Project activity levels and energy intensity into the future e.g. 2030 Create scenarios to reflect possible policy changes Create scenarios to reflect possible policy changes

5. Current energy use in PN

6. 2002 Household energy split

7. Technology/ Fuels

8. Possible questions that could be investigated? Effects of installing solar hot water heaters Effects of installing solar hot water heaters Location of future development Location of future development Effect of changing use of public transport Effect of changing use of public transport Effects of improving house design in relation to passive solar heating Effects of improving house design in relation to passive solar heating Effects of insulating older houses. Effects of insulating older houses.

9. Determining targets What to aim for? Assume stabilise @ 450ppm by 2050 What to aim for? Assume stabilise @ 450ppm by 2050 Needs to be equitable between countries Needs to be equitable between countries Proposing to investigate the impacts if emissions allocated on an area basis. Proposing to investigate the impacts if emissions allocated on an area basis.

10. Population vs area t/hd/yrt/km2/yr New Zealand17.6277.6 Australia24.968.8 Great Britain11.02739.0 USA23.3734.9 Sweden7.6155.3

11. Why use area as basis? Concentration of greenhouse gases are by volume Concentration of greenhouse gases are by volume Volume to accommodate emissions is directly related to land area. Volume to accommodate emissions is directly related to land area. Starts to account for the issue of population Starts to account for the issue of population

12. Consider implications for other TLA Palmerston North is a relatively small geographical area Palmerston North is a relatively small geographical area What are implications for a TLA in rural area. What are implications for a TLA in rural area. Different emissions profile Different emissions profile

13. Summary TLA’s need to start developing strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions TLA’s need to start developing strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions First understand current emissions First understand current emissions Establish targets for future Establish targets for future Evaluate proposed strategies using LEAP Evaluate proposed strategies using LEAP