1. Egypt National Security

2. Egyptian National Security Pre-Mubarak Fall

3. Key Strategic Points Egypt = Oldest continuous nation-state in M.E. Egypt = Most homogeneous nation-state in M.E. Egypt = Under extended foreign domination Egypt = Easy to invade/not easy to defend Egypt = “Gift of the Nile.” Herodotus Egypt = Leading Arab power Egypt = Strategic Rentier State Egypt = Military is paramount in national security

4. Egyptian National Security in modern times, 1952-1981(I) National Security under Nasser I, 1952-1956: – Ext. threats: Britain, France, Israel – Int. threats: Communists, Islamists, Weakness of the Military National Security under Nasser II, 1956-1970: – Ext. threats: Israel, the West, Arab monarchies – Int. threats: Islamists, Socioeconomic Crises, Leftists, – Functional threats: Weapons of Mass Destruction, Water National Security under Sadat I, 1970-1973: – Ext. threats: Israel, Israel, Israel – Int. threats: Political Factions, Left-wing groups, Students & Intellectuals, Islamists, Armed Forces

5. Egyptian National Security in modern times, 1952-1981 (II) National Security under Sadat II, 1973-1978: – Ext. threats: Israel, Libya, Ethiopia, Instability in Africa & Sudan, threats to Arab monarchies – Int. threats: Islamists, Left-wing, Socioeconomic crises, Armed Forces National Security under Sadat, III, 1979-1981: – Ext. threats: Israel, Libya, Soviet Union, Africa south of the Sahara, Islamic Republic of Iran, – Int. threats: Political and socioeconomic crises, Armed Forces – Functional threats: WMD proliferation, General Regional Instability, Water

6. Egyptian National Security under Husni Mubarak, 1981-Present External Threats: – Israel – Iran – Iraq – Sudan – Libya – Islamic Radical Infiltration Internal Threats: – Islamist Insurgency – Socioeconomic Crisis – Political Delegitimization Functional Threats: – WMD Proliferation and Strategic Imbalance – General Regional Instability

7. Egyptian National Security: Role of U.S./Egypt and Nukes Egypt and U.S.: From Adversary to Ally/Mentor – Benefits: Relationship w/ most powerful nation High-tech military Socioeconomic Aid – Costs: Constraints on independence Favors Israel Causes more instability than removes it Egypt and Nukes: – Why do states seek Nukes: Int. System exp.; State exp.; Nuclear Myth-makers and Domestic Politics exp.; Technological exp. – Why do states forego Nukes: Costs, reliance on major ally, lowered security threat