1. Introduction of T-PARC-China Component Dehui Chen 1, Jishan Xue 1 and Zhemin Tan 2 (April 23, 2007, Beijing, China) 1 LaSW/CAMS (state-key Laboratory of Severe Weather/Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science 2 NJU (Nanjing University), China Thanks to the contributors from the members of THORPEX-China committee, ARC and N-ARC

2. Outline  1. THORPEX?  2. I. T-PARC?  3. T-PARC-China  4. Summary and Discussion

3.  THORPEX: a world wild atmospheric research program within WWRP/WMO for 10 years.  THORPEX science plan was completed in 2003; and THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP) started in 2005.  Main goal: to accelerate to increase the accuracy of 1 day to 2 weeks HIW forecasts. 1. THORPEX abbreviated from THe Obs. Research and Predictability EXperiment

4. THORPEX : Four Sub-programs Dynamical Processes & Predictability (PDP) Data Assimilation & Observing Strategies (DAOS) Observing Systems (OS) Societal & Economic Research & Applications (SERA)

5. 2. I. T-PARC? T-PARC is short form of THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign. It is an integrated atmospheric research program from several THORPEX regional projects which are planning to be conducted over Asia-Pacific Ocean and the adjacent areas.

6. NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Winter storms reconnaissance and driftsonde IPY(07-09) (Courtesy of T. Nakazawa ) AMY08 Palau/ JAMSTEX T-PARC Experiment fields SCHeREX

7. Motivations of T-PARC  The T-PARC is mainly motivated from the Asian and North American prospective:  Societal and economic impacts from the HIWs, such as heavy rainfall associated with the Meiyu front, convective systems, tropical cyclone (typhoon), extra-tropical transition (ET), winter wind storms, and so on.

8. The composition of T-PARC (1) Tropical component: Advance understanding TC genesis, interactions with L.S. circulations (sub. H.) and Improve the TC and related heavy rain predictions. (3) Winter component: Advance understanding of winter wind storms, the upstream over EA-WCPO which influence the downstream HIWs in N-America, and Improve the prediction (2) ET component: Advance understanding the interactions beteewn tropics & mid-latitudes, improve the ET predictions. (4) New NWP approaches: Interactive observation-forecast system; Grand ensemble prediction system

9. Participants/Partners of T-PARC  The countries and organizations which have been involved in the T-PARC program:  North America: US Academic Community and US Research Institutions, Mexico and Canadian Universities and MSC;  Asia: China-CMA, IAP/CAS, Japan-JMA, JAMSTEC, Korea-KMA, Vietnam, Universities;  Europe: Germany U of Karlrsuhe, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR, Met Centers through TIGGE (ECMWF, Meteo-France, Met Office, EUCOS).

10.  3. T-PARC-China component Why T-PARC-China? What’s interesting?

11. Illustration of the complicated systems in summer season: Meiyu front, mid-lat. cold air flow, TC, monsoon trough, S-E trend, T.C.C. clusters, sub-T. high, etc. (Courtesy of S.Y. Tao) Major concerns for the weather forecast in CMA: Meiyu frontal H.R. & T.C. Our current ability is much limited in predicting them. It is thought to be related to the inadequacies in the initial conditions and in the treatment with dyn. & phy. processes particularly due to the lack of obs. in the south of Sub-T. high where the clouds cover often.

12. ► 7506# (Nina) TC was generated on 20th July 1975. ► And then it moved in north westward. ► It crossed Taiwan Island and landed in Fujian province at 02Z on 4th Aug. 1975. ► At 20Z on 5th Aug. 1975, the tropical cyclone arrived in Changde city of Hunan province and then in Tongbo city of Henan province. It caused a dramatic flooding in Henan province. 7506# (Nina)Typhoon’s track Henan Hubei Hunan

13.  Daily 24h accumulated precipitation from 1st – 8th Aug. The averaged amount of precip. more than 500mm/5 days; 1400 mm/5 days recorded in several stations. Damages: dams destroyed, …?? >100 000 dead/missing, worst in histo.

14. Scenes from the Extratropical Transition of Super Typhoon Tokage (2004) in Japan: ★ Damages in public infrastructure (agriculture And roads) exceeds 10B$ in 2004 ★ 230 deaths/missing, worst after 1983

15. IMPACTS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EVENTS: TY Tokage, October 2004, Damage in Japan and to U.S. Navy ships in Japan.

16.  Saomai: EPS tracks from 12UTC of 6 Aug 2006 : observed position (every 24h). “China's most powerful storm in past 50 years, Typhoon Saomai, has left at least 104 people dead. More than a million people were evacuated from the homes.. more than 50,000 houses had been destroyed.” (from the press).

17. Percentages of Occurrence of OCCs, 2004 LTD TS ALL 8.3 6.7 51. 7 10. 0 23. 3 20. 0 6.7 60. 0 0.013. 3 6.9 10. 3 58. 6 3.420. 7 9.6 7.7 54. 8 6.721. 2 Courtesy of Bessho et al. 2006

18. 3. T-PARC-China  The key points of T-PARC-China component include:  (1) the field observation experiments with balloon-driftsonding from Hawaii, Chinese- made-aircraft-dropsonding over South China Sea and intensified network over mainland of South-China;

19. 3. What’s the T-PARC-China (cont.)  The key points of T-PARC-China component include (cont.):  (2) the atmospheric scientific research focusing on the mechanism of HIWs (TC genesis, heavy rain, interactions between tropical-low latitudes and extra-tropical- mid latitudes); predictability and NWP improvements; societal economic applications and assessments.

20. T-PARC-China Key points ： Obs.: Land, Aircraft, Balloon Res.: Mechan., Pred., App. Balloon Aircraft Land Period: 2007~2009

21. Expected to fill critical gaps in coverage of clouds over oceanic regions (sensitivity area); ada. obs. + others assimilated to improve the HR forecast in targeting area. Expected to fill critical gaps in coverage of clouds over oceanic regions (sensitivity area); ada. obs. + others assimilated to improve the HR forecast in targeting area. Tar. area Adap. Obs. ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 24h 48h 00h ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 72h (Courtesy of S.Y. Tao)

22. From AMMA Project (courtesy of D. Parson)

23. Trajectories of the balloons from upper level of Hawaii 2006-Aug. (courtesy of D. Parson)

24. Cost-effective dropsonde observations of wind, temperature, and humidity to fill critical gaps in coverage over oceanic and remote artic and continental regions over days to weeks. (Courtesy of D. Parson) Driftsonde TOST

25. 25 Objectives of T-PARC-China (1) to enhance the intern’l Collaborations; (2) to test the new techniques of adaptive observation systems; (3) to deeper study on the mechanism and predictability of HIWs in China; (4) to test the new concepts of interactive observation-prediction system. (5) to improve the HIW forecast

26. 4. Summary and Discussion

27.  (1) T-PARC is a comprehensive atmospheric research programme. The field experiment of T-PARC covers the pan-Asia-Pacific Ocean region.  (2) The researches focus on the TC genesis, ET, heavy rain, interactions between tropical low-lat. and extra-tropical mid-lat., and on accelerating improvement of NWP accuracy.

28. 4. Summary and Discussion (cont.)  (3) The countries or organizations involved: Europe (Germany, UK-Met. O.), N-America (Canada, USA, Mexico), Asia (China, Korea, Japan, India, Vietnam, and so on)  (4) Current status: MRI-Project approved, Korea-Project approved, China-project and USA-project in final step approval. 3-5th April: a planning meeting of T-PARC in Monterey

29. 4. Summary and Discussion (cont.)  (5) Period: pre-Obs. in summer of 2007 (?); Obs. in August 2008 (B08-Olympic Games)  (6) Links to AMY08, IPY-2007~2009, others  (7) By near end of next May, in Beijing, THORPEX-China meeting; Special session for T-PARC-China discussion; in next Oct., THORPEX-Asia workshop is planning

30. THANK YOU!

31. 250hPa (40-60º N) zonal mean V time-longitude Hovmöller cross- section. Period: 28th Jul – 14th Aug. 2002 On 1st Aug., a Roosby-wavlet triggered in East of Japanese Islands, and then propagated to down-stream. On 11 Aug., a disastrous flooding occurred in Middle-Europe. The arrow indicated the trajectory of the Rossby-wavelet. (Courtesy of M. Shapiro and A. Thorpe, 2004)

32. 2005-Sept. (courtesy of D. Parson) Trajectories of the balloons from upper level of Hawaii

33. 2006-Aug. (courtesy of D. Parson)

34. Traditional flowchart of NWP system Obs.DASForecastUsers (Courtesy of D. Richardson et al ) User-2 User-1

35. New flowchart of inter. Obs.-Predic. system Obs+TarDAS+Tar F +Tar Users Sensitive Area Tar. Obs. User-1 User-2 (Courtesy of D. Richardson et al )

36. TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, is a key component of THORPEX