1. Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Josée Morneau and Nicolas Wagneur Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada www.ec.gc.ca APSDEU-8 Meeting Montréal, Canada. 10-12 October 2007

2. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Computers and Telecoms Electrical capacity problem solved IBM: 2 x 600 P5+ clusters, to reach 4512 P5+ by mid 2009 Upgrade to SGI-FE’s: 2 x capacity New CFS: 2 PB tape capacity Links to NOAA-TOC (GTS), UKMetO (Sat data + GTS back-up), EUMETSAT (EARS) Link to NOAA-NESDIS soon Internet still used for much satellite data

3. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report CMC OPERATIONAL RUNS: MAIN COMPONENTS GEM model Global (100km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15km) : 0-48 hours HIMAP (10km) : 0-24 hours air quality (CHRONOS) Environmental Emergency Transport model (CANERM) Trajectory model monthly and seasonal forecasts global assimilation cycle 4D-Var Analysis (data collection and assimilation) Models, 9-hour forecast (trial field) Wave model (WAM) regional data assimilation ensemble forecasts (20 members) surface analyses GEM model Global (35 km) : 0-10/15 days Regional (15 km) : 0-48 hours LAM (2.5 km) : 0-24 hours

4. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Atmosphere (4D-Var) –Wind (U,V) –temperature + Ps –Moisture (ln Q) Surface (OI) –air temperature –dew point depression –precipitation amount –sea surface temperature (also lakes) –mean sea level pressure –snow depth –ice cover –ice thickness –deep soil temperature –soil moisture –albedo –and other geophysical fields based on climatology Data Assimilation – Fields Analyzed 4-D analyses from surface up to 10 hPa (58 Levels) 2-D analyses at surface Global and Regional grids (some on LAM)

5. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Observations assimilated in 4D-Var (750 m) Vertical hourly U,V Profiler (NOAA Network) ~180 km boxes 11 layers, per time step U,V MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra) 1.5 o x 1.5 o 11 layers, per time step U,V (IR, WV, VI channels) AMV’s (METEOSAT 7-9, GOES 11-12, MTSAT-1R) 2 o x 2 o 3-hourly IM3 (6.7 m) Water vapor channel GOES 11-12 250 km x 250 km per time step Ocean Land AMSU-A 3-10 6-10 AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4 ATOVS NOAA 15-16-17-18, AQUA 1 o x 1 o x 50 hPa per time step U, V, T Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) 1 report / 6hT, (T-T d ), p s, (U, V over water)Surface report 28 levelsU, V, T, (T-T d ), p s Radiosonde/dropsonde ThinningVariablesType

6. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Availability of aircraft data ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO (on GTS since July 05) Some ADS data now collected in Northern Canada ADS data East of 30° W now available. Thanks to UK-Nats.

7. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Canadian AMDAR - Status AC Jazz: 33 CRJ and 42 DHC-8 on GTS, 1 CRJ and 7 DHC-8 retained due to problems with data quality. More CRJ to be added. CRJ data very good. Still issues with DHC-8 TT data, although improved. Problem is related to data averaging aspects in avionics. Some data from AMS (DHC-8 and B737) but not used nor transmitted due to data quality issues. Some progress with First Air (B737 or B727 with TAMDAR), and data quality improving after TAMDAR calibration. To be distributed and assimilated after positive evaluation, including RH. Data from NavCanada CRJ’s (2) to be this fall. Negotiations progressing well with WestJet. MSC-ADAS ready to replace former C-ADAS software. Monitoring of data is on-going and showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.

8. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Canadian AMDAR coverage

9. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 For DHC-8 Aircraft, significant difference in bias between ascent / descent data. Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics. CRJ Aircraft data are good. April 2007

10. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Monitoring of AMDAR Humidity Obs. GLFE TAMDAR MDCRS WVSS-II Diff. Scales

11. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Monitoring of RAOBS Humidity Obs. O - B O - A TAMDAR and RAOBS have Similar STD TAMDAR has More bias than RAOBS TAMDAR are better than WVSS-II

12. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Other Canadian observations “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail. Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available. Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR. Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data. Some research wind profilers in Southern Ontario and Quebec: operated by Universities, data not yet available to CMC but should be provided to USA MADIS coop profiler hub. Some soil TT data now available, eventually in BUFR. New equipment for radiosondes. Should improve wind quality, also includes provision for 4D data in BUFR. Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone. Major data management project in MSC, should lead to all data available in BUFR. Potential development of surface GPS Network. Lead: Godelieve Deblonde. Surface Weather stations for 2010 Olympics (Whistler) already on GTS.

13. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report 575 X 641 grid ( 66% in 15-km uniform area), 58 levels Regional model

14. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Currently 4 GEM LAM 2.5 km domains, plus MAP D-Phase over the Alps (until November 2007) Topography at 2.5 km

15. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Minor changes : AMV’s : GOES-10 to GOES-11 (Jul. 2006), METEOSAT-8 to METEOSAT-9 (Oct. 2006), METEOSAT-5 to METEOSAT-7 (Feb. 2007) Radiances: GOES-10 to GOES-11 : Jul 2006 Blacklisting AMSU-A Ch. 4 from NOAA-16 : Jan 2007 Major changes to Global System on October 31, 2006 : 35 km, 58 levels ISBA land surface scheme Improvements to physical parameterization Kain-Fritsch deep convection Assimilation: new B statistics, 58 levels (still T108), 40% more efficient 4D-Var code, new SST and snow analyses. Migration to New IBM : March 07 Some compiler issues Some reproducibility issues New assimilation setup for regional system on July 5, 2007 6 hour spinup cycle (previously 12) 3D FGAT analysis 58 levels Major upgrade of the ensemble prediction system on July 15, 2007 20 members up to 16 days at 0.9 deg (400x200) and 28 levels

16. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Main Features of the New Global GEM Increased horizontal and vertical resolution 800x600x58L (33 km) compared to 400x200x28L (100 km) Numerical poles at geographic locations (non-rotated) Representation of clouds and precipitation Shallow convection with Kuo Transient Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch (vs Kuo) Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length (vs Blackadar) Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics (vs Charnock everywhere) ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) (vs Force-Restore)

17. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Horizontal Grid of new global GEM Previous model New Global-meso 400X200 -> 100 km 800X600 -> 33 km at 45 o N

18. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Vertical Levels of new global GEM Previous model 10hPa 28 eta levels DZ (km) New Global-meso 58 eta levels DZ (km) 10hPa

19. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlation Geopotential Height – 500 hPa Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere 120 Winter (DJF 2005) Cases

20. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Objective Evaluation of Precipitation SHEF US surface stations Bias ETS NEW OP NEW OP 55 Summer 2004 cases Precip 48-72h

21. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Systematic Evaluation of 72- Hour Hurricane Forecast – 2005 Season (7 cases ) position error (km) central pressure error (hPa) No vortex relocation

22. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Case Study - Hurricane Katrina 72 hours120 hours

23. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Case Study: Radar Echoes for Hurricane Rita (Michel Roch)

24. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Hurricane Rita: MESO vs OPER. Observed trajectory MESO OPER Other models (MR)

25. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Recent NWP verification http://iweb.cmc.ec.gc.ca/~afsisio/CMOI/verification/imag es/omm/special_cases/runningmean/noam_vs_obs_24h _rmse.gif GEM-15New Sat data4D-VarMeso Global

26. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report New Assimilation set-up for Regional System Update to 58 Levels and B Stats of meso-global GEM (from 28L, B stats from 100-km Global GEM) Spin-up shortened to 6 hours (from 12) with 3D-Var FGAT, more benefit from Global 4D-Var Snow depth anal. on 15-km model grid New ice climatology, forcing a southern limit to the ice line (monthly) Easy extension to 4 cycles per day

27. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Regional 12 hr spin-up cycle L’analyse est transmise Champ d’essai est produit L’analyse est produite G200 G218 G212 G206 R200 R206 R112 R212 R218 R100 R312R118 R106R300 G100 G112

28. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Regional 6 hr spin-up cycle L’analyse est transmise Champ d’essai est produit L’analyse est produite R206 R218 R100 R312R118 R106R300 R112 G200 G218 G212 G206 R200 R112 R212 G100 G112 R206 R312 R118 R218 R100 R106R300 R318 R306

29. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Summer O-P 48h Winter (42 cases) (42 cases

30. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report 42 winter cases– synop and shef (00-24h)

31. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Evaluation of possible gain with 4 regional runs per day (42 winter cases) zonal wind std temperature zonal wind

32. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report New EPS implemented July 2007 a) New physics / New dynamics / Horizontal resolution 20 GEM members (SEF not used in the new EPS)‏ Horizontal resolution: 0.9° Model lid: 10 hPa Forecasts up to 16 days Inclusion of two stochastic components in the physics Multi-parameterization approach... ENKF – True 4D with FGAT like innovations, 0.9°

33. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report New Set-up for EPS b) Stochastic physical tendency perturbations All physical tendencies on horizontal winds, temperature, and humidity of each member are multiplied by a random function: –Defined in the range [0.5, 1.5] –With a decorrelation time scale of 3 hours –And a decorrelation length scale of ~1700 km

34. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report New Set-up for EPS c) Stochastic kinetic energy backscatter algorithm Numerical models are over-dissipative near the truncation limit This likely inhibits upscale energy transfer that can affect the large scale flow It is thought that this phenomenon can be a cause of under- dispersion in EPSs Parameterization: Inject energy near the truncation limit to compensate for the over-dissipation

35. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Comparison between the former and new EPS Mean of errors Error of the mean Ensemble spread Global RMS Scores Thin lines : New EPS Thick lines: Old EPS Globe

36. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Comparison between the former and new EPS Mean of errors Error of the mean Ensemble spread Tropical RMS Scores Thin lines : New EPS Thick lines: Old EPS Tropics

37. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Next increment to assimilation system: more observations in 4D-Var (parallel suite scheduled to start in october, 2007) AIRS & SSMI radiances  3 hourly sfc data Dynamic bias correction for all radiance data  Revised background & observation error statistics ✓ More low level AMV’s  More levels from radiosondes and aircraft  SSMI/S radiances ✓ QuikSCAT ⌚ Metop ATOVS: AMSUA & MHS  GPS Occultations from COSMIC, CHAMP and GRACE (during later phase of parallel testing)

38. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Summary of the new components to be implemented AIRS radiance data (87 channels). SSM/I radiance data (+ eliminating AMSU-A ch3 and new cloud mask for AMSU-B). Going from RTTOV7 to RTTOV8.7 (and new vertical interpolation) Inclusion of high scan angle AMSU data. QuikScat oceanic surface winds (from KNMI). 3.9 micron AMV (nighttime low level winds). Dynamical bias correction for all radiance data. Current operational assimilation and forecast system ~35 km resolution global forecast model (GEM with 800x600 points and 58 eta levels). 4DVAR global assimilation with 6 hour window. 15 km regional forecast model over North America (58 eta levels). 3DVAR FGAT regional assimilation with 6 hour spin-up cycle launched from global cycle every 12 hours.

39. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Data volumes (typical for 6 hour) ~50% Increase of assimilated data Operational SystemNew data RAOBS 50000 Aircraft 55000 Profilers 8000 Surface 13000 GOES 5000 SatWind 40000 AMSU-A 50000 AMSU-B 20000 SSMI 14000 QuikScat 10000 AIRS 75000 SatWind 1500 AMSU-A 14000 AMSU-B 5000 Total ~240000Total ~120000

40. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Verification against Radiosondes for winter 2007 5 day global forecast – 160 cases verified over Southern Hemisphere Pressure hPa m/s degrees dam 2 day regional forecast – 40 cases verified over North America UU UV UU UV GZTT ES GZ TT degreesdam Pressure hPa m/s degrees OPE in blue versus NEW in red BIAS STD DEV BIAS Verification against Radiosondes for winter 2007 5 day global forecast – 160 cases verified over Southern Hemisphere Pressure hPa m/s degrees dam 2 day regional forecast – 40 cases verified over North America UU UV UU UV GZTT ES GZ TT degreesdam Pressure hPa m/s degrees OPE in blue versus NEW in red BIAS STD DEV BIAS Verification against Radiosondes for winter 2007 5 day global forecast – 160 cases verified over Southern Hemisphere Pressure hPa m/s degrees dam 2 day regional forecast – 40 cases verified over North America UU UV UU UV GZTT ES GZ TT degreesdam Pressure hPa m/s degrees OPE in blue versus NEW in red BIAS STD DEV BIAS Verification against Radiosondes for winter 2007 5 day global forecast – 160 cases verified over Southern Hemisphere Pressure hPa m/s degrees dam 2 day regional forecast – 40 cases verified over North America UU UV UU UV GZTT ES GZ TT degreesdam Pressure hPa m/s degrees OPE in blue versus NEW in red BIAS STD DEV BIAS Global model 500 hPa geopotential forecast anomaly correlation 156 summer cases160 winter cases hours Global model 500 hPa geopotential forecast anomaly correlation 156 summer cases160 winter cases hours

41. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Global model 500 hPa geopotential forecast anomaly correlation 156 summer cases160 winter cases hours

42. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report

43. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Schematic description of Observations Impact (OI) calculation t= -6 hrs egeg t= 24 hrs efef Forecast Error (J/Kg) Observations  e f,g Estimation of Observation Impact (OI) on the quality of a short-range forecast. OI is defined as  e f g = e f – e g   e f g < 0, the assimilation of observations is reducing the 24h forecast error. The observations are beneficial.   e f g > 0, the assimilation of observations is increasing the 24h forecast error. The observations are non- beneficial.

44. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report The impact on the forecast error is due solely to the assimilation of observations. Observation impact is computed using any subset of the innovation vector (or observations). Unnecessary to add or remove observations (as in OSE). A Posteriori monitoring of observation quality. Evaluation for 24-hour forecast error only. Performed for August 2004 only. Observation Impact method description (2) Josee.Morneau@ec.gc.ca

45. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Estimation of  e f,g Sensitivity gradient in observation space Innovation : background variable at observation location y : observation K T : adjoint of the analysis gain matrix, i.e.

46. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report egeg t= -6 hrs  e f,g ) UA t= 24 hrs t=0 efef Forecast Error (J/Kg) Calculation of the impact of observation groups to the reduction of forecast error  e f,g ) AI........

47. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Sensitivity of 24-hr fcst errors to observations

48. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Sensitivity of 24-hr fcst errors to observations

49. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Radiosonde Data Impact: 24-hr fcst, Aug. 04

50. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Aircraft data Impact: 24-hr fcst, Aug. 04

51. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report AMSU-A data Impact: 24-hr fcst, Aug. 04

52. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Next version of global system Hybrid vertical coordinate, 80L, lid 0.1hPa Li & Barker Radiation scheme Hines non-orographic GWD New error statistics (Buehner) Additional AMSU and AIRS channels, IASI ? GPS-RO: CHAMP, GRACE, COSMIC, GRAS ASCAT SSM/IS Bias Correction above 10 hPa ?? Target: Late spring 2008

53. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report Monitoring Web sites http://collaboration.cmc.eg.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring http://collaboration.cmc.eg.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/CAMDAR http://collaboration.cmc.eg.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/CAMDAR http://collaboration.cmc.eg.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/SAR User: monitoring PW: CMC

54. APSDEU-8 Montréal – October 10-12, 2007 Metorological Service of Canada Status Report www.ec.gc.ca