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www.mercer.ca Investment Performance Report at March 31, 2009 Saint Mary’s University Pension Plan June 2009 Yvan Breton, Montreal
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1 Mercer (Canada) Limited Agenda Market review – what happened in 2008 Performance review of SMU funds Active manager issues Managing risk
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www.mercer.ca Market Review What happened in 2008
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3 Mercer (Canada) Limited What happened? Lower quality borrowers were granted mortgages easily Low quality debt repackaged for resale Mid-2000s Many mortgages defaulted Financial Institutions /Buyers of repackaged low quality debt started reporting huge losses 2007 Financial Institutions having difficulty borrowing at reasonable cost U.S. Government intervention Worldwide collapse of confidence 2008 Low Interest Rate Environment Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis Liquidity Crisis
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4 Mercer (Canada) Limited Market Indices Return As at March 31, 2009 (1-year and 4-year)
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5 Mercer (Canada) Limited Market Indices Return As at May 29, 2009 (YTD) UPDATED
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6 Mercer (Canada) Limited Distribution of Market Returns Historical Look at Annual Stock Market Returns
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www.mercer.ca Fund Performance Review
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8 Mercer (Canada) Limited Gross Performance to March 31, 2009 Money Market ( Sun Life Financial ) (3.6% of funds) PeriodFund ReturnValue AddedQuartile Ranking 1 year2.7%+0.3%Q3 2 years3.7%+0.2%Q2 3 years3.9%+0.2%Q2 4 years3.6%+0.1%Q3 5 years3.3%+0.1%Q4
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9 Mercer (Canada) Limited Gross Performance to March 31, 2009 Canadian Equity (Barclays Global Investors) (22.9% of funds) PeriodFund Return¹Value AddedQuartile Ranking 1 year-28.5%+3.9%Q1 2 years-13.7%+2.8%Q1 3 years-5.8%+1.5%Q1 4 years2.5%+1.9%Q1 5 years5.1%+2.0%Q1 ¹ Benchmark for the Fund is S&P/TSX Equity Index
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10 Mercer (Canada) Limited Gross Performance to March 31, 2009 International Equity (Acadian) (15.0% of funds) PeriodFund ReturnValue AddedQuartile Ranking 1 year-41.4%-7.4%Q4 2 years-29.6%-5.3%Q4 Returns below are combination of Acadian and UBS 1 3 years-16.5%-4.6%Q4 4 years-9.4%-4.7%Q4 5 years-6.6%-4.0%Q4 ¹ The Acadian fund was only used from March 31, 2007 onward. For 3, 4 and 5-year periods, the result shown is a combination of the UBS performance (to March 31, 2007) and Acadian (from April 1, 2007).
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11 Mercer (Canada) Limited Gross Performance to March 31, 2009 Index (passive) Funds (bonds: 32.8%; US Equity: 15.9% of funds) PeriodFixed IncomeUS Equity 1 year4.5%-24.0% 2 years5.1%-19.9% 3 years5.2%-10.8% 4 years5.1%-6.5% 5 years5.1%-5.6%
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www.mercer.ca Active Managers Issues
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13 Mercer (Canada) Limited Active Managers Issues Downgrade of Barclays Global Investors (BGI) The BGI Active Canadian Equity strategy was recently downgraded by Mercer – Reflects our concerns over recent changes to the strategy Pillar of success for BGI’s Active Canadian Equity strategy has come from its commitment and dedication to research – According to BGI, 90% of its added value comes from its research BGI has increased the workload of the Canadian research team to include non-Canadian responsibilities – We believe this may distract them and cause the strategy to lose its competitive advantage
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14 Mercer (Canada) Limited Active Managers Issues Underperformance at Acadian Acadian’s international equity strategy has underperformed recently Acadian uses a quantitative model to rank stocks into quintiles – Historically, the model has been effective and highly ranked stocks have outperformed lowly ranked stocks Acadian attributes their recent underperformance to a market dislocation during which stocks of lesser quality (i.e., high debt, poor earnings, high P/E multiples) have been outperforming When markets become “normal” again, Acadian expects performance to improve Mercer continues to rate this strategy highly and believe it has above- average prospects for outperformance
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www.mercer.ca Managing Risk
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16 Mercer (Canada) Limited Risk/Return of Investment Options Offered Risk Return Spectrum (1) Short term risk is defined as volatility of returns and account balance (2) Long term risk is defined as inadequate long term real returns to reach retirement objectives Long-Term Risk Spectrum (2) Short-Term Risk Spectrum (1) Money Market 5-Year GICs Bond Balanced Portfolios US Equity International Equity Canadian Equity
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17 Mercer (Canada) Limited Basic Concepts of Sound Investments Asset Diversification Diversification by: – Type of investments (stocks, bonds, short-term investments, etc...) – Geography Risk reduction without necessarily impeding expected return Also need to counter the long term effect of inflation
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18 Mercer (Canada) Limited Tools Offered under the SMU Plan Five target risk asset allocation portfolios Sun Life Tools – Risk assessment questionnaire – Retirement planning tools – www.sunlife.ca/member www.sunlife.ca/member Risk tolerance will likely change over your career – Check your risk tolerance periodically and make changes as you deem appropriate – If not using a target risk portfolio, periodically check to see whether you need to re-balance your allocation back to your target
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19 Mercer (Canada) Limited
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www.mercer.ca
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