1. © Crown copyright Met Office M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A. Boone, M.Ek and other panel members GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) WGNE annual meeting March 2014

2. © Crown copyright Met Office The aim of GLASS is to promote community activities that improve: 1.our best estimates and the model representation of state variables 1.our understanding of land/atmosphere feedbacks 1.our understanding of the role of land surface in predictability. Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Cross-Cutting projects/actions: GLACE2 – Links to S2S (land sfc adding to predictability) LUCID2 – Links to iLeaps ALMIP2 – Links to GHP DICE – Links to GASS PLUMBER – Links to GHP Launching in next 12 months: GSWP3 – Links to carbon community (iLEAPS) PILDAS – Links to WGNE Being planned LoCo SGP testbed... GABLS4-DICE-over-ICE? (joint GASS-GLASS) GLASS Project Updates :

4. © Crown copyright Met Office

5. Provide a comprehensive set of land surface states for the period including entire 20th century and recent years (~1901 – recent) that can serve as a long-term land surface reanalysis suite. Include carbon models, to explore/attribute a possible carbon-related effect or changes in Hydro-Energy-Eco functioning. Explore uncertainties of input datasets and their propagation through different schemes (LSMs) and super-ensembles (multi-input and multi- model, 1979 - present). Uncertainty in future land surface states (multi-GCMs and scenarios, 2000 - 2100) Build a robust evaluation framework through component-wise verification (e.g. routing scheme for a validation of discharge (flux); GRACE for a validation of terrestrial water storage variation (storage)) Includes engagement of the carbon community and inclusion of a suite of LSMs in varying hydrological and carbon treatments. Follow up to GSWP2 (1986-1995) : NEW aspects :

6. © Crown copyright Met Office GSWP-3: Long term retrospective Exp

7. © Crown copyright Met Office Enable better communication among developers of land data assimilation systems (LDAS) Develop and testa framework for LDAS comparison and evaluation Compare land assimilation methods (EnKF, EKF...). Conduct sensitivity studies of assimialtion input parameters (such as modeland observation errors). Provide guidance and priorities for future land assimilation research and applications Ultimately, produce enhanced global datasets of land surface fields Project for the Intercomparison of Land Data Assimilation Systems (PILDAS): Objectives

8. © Crown copyright Met Office PILDAS : setup

9. © Crown copyright Met Office

10. The development of a beta version of the Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS, http:// pals.unsw.edu. au) is underway. PALS is a web application for evaluating land surface models and the observed data sets used to test them (e.g. FLUXNET, GHP). The PALS website is designed to analyze in a standard way uploaded single site model simulations with FLUXNET and other observations. A related activity is that of a joint GHP-GLASS project to demonstrate benchmarking approaches using PALS, and establishing empirical benchmarks in PALS from which to evaluate a suite of models. PALS-current & perspectives

11. © Crown copyright Met Office PLUMBER sites E E E D B B D G M G G C W S P E – Evergreen Needleleaf B – Evergreen Broadleaf D – Deciduous Broadleaf W – Woody Savanna S – Savanna P – Permanent Wetlands W E E B D M – Mixed Forest G - Grassland C – Cropland

12. © Crown copyright Met Office Rankings relative to benchmarks Mean Bias ErrorMBE Normalised Mean Error NME Standard Deviation sd Correlation coefficient r

13. © Crown copyright Met Office Range of Sites for Radiation Hyytiala Mopane

14. © Crown copyright Met Office Range of Sites for Precipitation Kruger Palang

15. © Crown copyright Met Office

16. GLACE-CMIP5 Aims: Investigate effects of changes in soil moisture content and soil moisture-climate coupling for future climate projections Impacts on regional climate (temperature extremes, precipitation) Shifts in hot spots of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling Impacts on global carbon cycle Interactions with land use changes 16

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Experimental set-up Soil moisture (point in Central Europe) GLACE-CMIP5 investigates the impact of decadal changes in soil moisture on climate (Focus on climate- change projections ≠ GLACE-1 and GLACE-2: Focus on sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting) 17

18. © Crown copyright Met Office Design: ETH Zurich (Sonia Seneviratne), KNMI (Bart van den Hurk) Analysis: ETH Zurich (Sonia Seneviratne, Micah Wilhelm, Tanja Stanelle) MPI-ESM: Stefan Hagemann, Victor Brovkin, Martin Claussen CESM: Dave Lawrence, Matthew Higgins EC-Earth: Arndt Meier, Ben Smith, Markku Rummukainen, Bart van den Hurk GFDL: Alexis Berg, Sergey Malyshev, Kirsten Findell IPSL: Frederique Cheruy, Agnès Ducharne, Joséfine Ghattas, Jean-Louis Dufresne Additional interested participants: Paul Dirmeyer, Pierre Friedlingstein, Randy Koster, Julia Pongratz 18 S.I. Seneviratne, ETH Zurich / GLACE-CMIP5 Participating groups

19. © Crown copyright Met Office ~18-25% of climate change signal in Mediterranean region due to soil moisture- temperature feedbacks 19 S.I. Seneviratne, ETH Zurich / GLACE-CMIP5 Temperature impacts

20. © Crown copyright Met Office Effects on precipitation are also found, especially in JJA & NH Noisier than for temperature (see DJF) Overall: drier future soils lead to reduced precipitation In absolute terms [mm/d]: larger for precipitation extremes than mean precipitation 20 S.I. Seneviratne, ETH Zurich / GLACE-CMIP5 Precipitation impacts

21. © Crown copyright Met Office GLACE “Hotspot” Regions Koster et al., 2004. Science, 305, 1138-1140

22. © Crown copyright Met Office Outline of DICE (DIurnal Cycle Experiment) These stages test:  LSM and SCM stand-alone performance against observations (stage 1)  What is the impact of coupling? (stage 2)  How sensitive are different LSM and SCM to variations in forcing? (stage 3) 3a 3b

23. © Crown copyright Met Office Re-visiting GABLS-2 CASES-99 campaign Leon, near Witchita, Kansas. 37 o N, -96 o E Relatively flat Prairie grassland 1900 UTC 23 Oct 1999 – 1900 UTC 26 Oct 1999 Clear skies No cloud No precip Different nocturnal BL stability: i.Intermittant ii.Turbulent iii.Radiative Courtesy of Joan Cuxart

24. © Crown copyright Met Office Models ModelContact scientist InstituteStages submitted LevelsSensitivity tests AromeEric BazilleMeteo FranceAll60/70resolution ArpegeEric BazilleMeteo FranceAll60/70resolution ECEARTHReinder RondaWageningenSCM only91LAI GDPS3.0Ayrton ZadraCMCAll79 GFDLSergey MalyshevPrincetonAll24 GISS_E2Ann Fridlind, Andy Ackerman GISSAll40 IFS/HTESSELIrina Sandu, Gianpaolo Balsamo ECMWFAll137LAI MESO_NHMaria JimenezUIBAll85Bare soil UM/JULESAdrian Lock, Martin Best Met OfficeAll70Vegetation WRF-NOAHWeiguo WangNUISTAll60Lots! WRFWayne AngevineNOAA?119PBL scheme CAM5, CLM4David LawrenceNCAR1a, 1b? PBCMPierre GentineColumbiaNot yet

25. © Crown copyright Met Office Stage 1a Surface fluxes from 55m-forced LSM Not all LSM provided u * Coloured by LSM H LE U*U*

26. © Crown copyright Met Office Stage 1b Near surface evolution 20m55m θ q θ q RH

27. © Crown copyright Met Office More spread between models in stage 2 Interesting lack of spread within (some) models Stage 1 vs 2 Bulk PBL sensitivity Stage 1b Stage 2 θ q θ q

28. © Crown copyright Met Office Stage 3a: U * from SCMs’ atmospheric forcing Coloured by SCM forcing

29. © Crown copyright Met Office Stage 3b Daytime PBL sensitivity for 25 th Oct θ q h PBL