2. Adaptation Capacity How can it be strengthened? Preserve current “adequate” and improve it Current climate, climate change, (and possible changes in climate variability) Socioeconomic current conditions and trends Sustainable development policy (Compromise: Equity; no - regrets). in the context of:

3. Preserve and Improve Forecasts, Climate information and warning systems Climate must be one element in decision making (as info in new seeds, or new technology) of stakeholders, policy makers in the priority regions/sectors. Flexibility: possibility to choose on a set of adaptation measures Inter: disciplinary, sectorial, institutional collaboration

4. Preserve and Improve Financial and human resources Technology and infrastructure Institutions, responsibility and effectiveness Integrated national/regional/local actions Organizational capacity

5. Other constraints ($, skills, info, alternative choices, social / legal inaccurate estimation risks, short term gains preferred) :. Adaptation Capacity. (V. 9. Pag. 33, AFP) * Conflicts between adaptation measures. Sectors (industy - agriculture - livestock- forestry), regions (N - S, urban - rural, countries) * Lack of confidence in government or scientific proposals Bridge: empirical (traditional,local) vs. Scientific knowledge; Social vs natural sciences;...

6. Open databases, access to community members for surveys. Results presented in brochures. Conferences to younger students Oral tradition, confidence in the elders or leaders Lack of information > 9 workshops between U, G, P. Meetings and conferences in counties to describe forecast and discussion of possible alternatives Rich traditional knowledge of crop managements, seeds, environment Lack of skills, training, access to technology Financial resources from. Universities (U), Government agencies (G), producers (P). Community solidarity as a tradition. Shared costs between family or community Lack of financial resources or access to credit Tlaxcala ProjectCommunitiesAFP page 33

7. Tlaxcala ProjectCommunities AFP page 33 Changes in crops (maize to oats) was a one - year success. It was not repeated the next years. U. of Tlaxcala: experiments on alternative crop production, using climate information before planting Short gains have meant security for many years Short term gains may be preferred to long term security The first forecast 1998: very accurate. The other two forecasts where not that good but did not had a negative impact in the farmers interest. Anchored in 1998 impression? Traditional forecasting methods are many times incorrect, but does not affect “business as usual” practices. Incorrect or inaccurate estimates of risk Poorer farmers have made almost all the possible adaptations they could. Successful experience in 1998 showed that the forecast should be delivered with crop and financial possibilities Resistance to change. Bad previous experiences with change (seeds, pesticides, etc), incentives for adoption of alternatives that conflict with risk management priorities of farmers Lack of alternative choices

8. Smallest State in the Country Densely Populated (4 times National Average) Population Growth of 3.2 % (>1.2% National Average) >> Soil Erosion << Water Availability * Agriculture occupies 84% of state’s land area; Rainfed: 92%; Maize Production: 53%; Averaged Yields: 2 ton/Ha 85% land units have less than 5 Ha Rainfed Maize Production in Spring - Summer season Country Study, Phase II: Tlaxcala State. Case Study

9. Tlaxcala Project Organization Biology - AgronomyAtmospheric Physics, Biology, Geography Center for Biological Sciences Research UAT State Center for Atmospheric Sciences, UNAM National Universities Rural Development Public Produce A.C.- Tlaxcala Private Producers National Institute for Forests and Agriculture Research – Tlaxcala (INIFAP - Tlaxcala) State National Institute of Ecology – Minister of Environment, Natural Resources and Fisheries (INE – SEMARNAP) Federal Government