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Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French NMS Michel Déqué Météo-France, Toulouse.

Published byGrace Hardy Modified over 9 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French NMS Michel Déqué Météo-France, Toulouse."— Presentation transcript:

1 Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French NMS Michel Déqué Météo-France, Toulouse

2 Miami, 12-14 January 2009 2 EUROSIP  7-month ensembles of 41 members  Together with ECMWF and MetO  Issued operationally each month  Météo-France: → system3 in May 2008 –New ocean analysis –91 levels on the vertical

3 Miami, 12-14 January 2009 3 Winter temperature in Paris  DJF daily values of 2m temperature at 1 grid point  Pdf distribution  Validated against observed series at Paris-Orly for 1988-2007  Model data pre-conditioning: model climatological pdf must fit observation pdf for each model  Example: last two winters of the hindcast period

4 Miami, 12-14 January 2009 Winter 2005-2006 Climatology Observation Multi-model

5 Miami, 12-14 January 2009 Winter 2006-2007 Climatology Observation Multi-model

6 Miami, 12-14 January 2009 6 Scores  Ranked probability scores  200 equiprobable classes  Leave one out mode Climatology: 0.0097 ECMWF : 0.0105 MetO: 0.0097 Météo-France: 0.0090 Multi: 0.0088

7 Miami, 12-14 January 2009 Generalization to Europe  34 European capitals  FP6-ENSEMBLES observation gridded dataset (25 km)‏  Météo-France hindcasts only

8 Miami, 12-14 January 2009 RPS skill score (x100)‏

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