1. Get Real The Economics of Convergence For Oxford Media Convention January 18 th 2007 Tess Alps CEO Thinkbox

2. I cant believe what you say, cos I see what you do Aretha Franklin

3. Predicting the future Its important - but using what supporting data? Research relying on claimed behaviour is dangerous Better by far to examine real behaviours eg London Business School/ACB research into PVR usage Be sceptical: who, how and why

4. The resilience of broadcast TV Source: BARB/Infosys

5. And commercial broadcasts share will continue to grow Source: BARB/Infosys

6. TV ad viewing : historic highs in 2006 but revenue still weak Source: BARB/DDS Impacts (Millions)

7. Pricing the long-tail: targeted TV still discounted Source: BARB/Infosys 35%47% Premium Discounted Remaining 53%

8. Broadcast still dominates the media day Source: IPA Touchpoints Hub Survey

9. Internet :a technology not a medium New TV distribution technologies are mostly incremental to broadcast TV and displacing other activities Source: IPA Touchpoints Hub Survey

10. Human beings havent changed Entertain Me Linear Broadcasting Streamed Mobile TV Streamed Broadband TV 85%+ of fixed viewing time? Play/Buy IPTV Interactive TV TV Gaming Me-TV PVR Recorded Retail and Rental DVDs VOD & NVOD Downloads Finite consumer spend? Needs States

11. Different economic cultures Internet content rarely paid for Greater expectations of paying for mobile phone services. Vodaphone state TV services make more £ than ring-tones now. The power of free/cheap eg C4 Celebrity Big Brother mobile downloads 10 fold increase now free. Cinema model may emerge viz shop window of premium broadcast made at a loss because it promotes secondary pay windows Payment by response possible from brands (IPTV, iTV, etc) at a premium but requires a return path

12. Bigger economic threats Short-termism in marketing Retail pressures on brands Loss of confidence in broadcast TV – the industry can help itself Over-regulation Inescapable fact : public-service, high-end content will need subsidy/support