1. Role of China in SSA: Trade Raphael Kaplinsky Institute of Development Studies, Centre for Research in Innovation Management

2. VectorsDirectIndirect Trade Complementary Competitive Production and FDI DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Finance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Governance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Migration DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive A taxonomy for assessing the impact of Asian Drivers on other economies

3. VectorsDirectIndirect Trade Complementary Competitive Production and FDI DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Finance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Governance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Migration DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive The impacts may be competitive or complementary

4. VectorsDirectIndirect Trade Complementary Competitive Production and FDI DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Finance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Governance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Migration DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive And they may be direct or indirect

5. VectorsDirectIndirect Trade Complementary Competitive Production and FDI DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Finance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Governance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Migration DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive We know much more about the direct impacts

6. VectorsDirectIndirect Trade Complementary Competitive Production and FDI DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Finance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Governance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Migration DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive From the rich country perspective, we tend to focus on the competitive effects

7. VectorsDirectIndirect Trade Complementary Competitive Production and FDI DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Finance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Governance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Migration DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive But in SSA, the complementary impacts are often much more visible

8. VectorsDirectIndirect Trade Complementary Competitive Production and FDI DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Finance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Governance DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Migration DirectIndirect Complementary Competitive Focusing on the trade vector

9. SupplierYearExports ($ '000): World USAUS share Kenya200051,52746,70190.6% 2004305,448295,52096.7% Lesotho2000154,192146,36494.9% 2004494,155481,78797.5% Madagascar2000610,683115,37718.9% 2004559,501345,72861.8% Swaziland200037,71233,35688.4% 2004190,537188,46798.9% South Africa2000453,153150,31333.2% 2004252,453149,40259.2% SHARE OF C&T EXPORTS DIRECTED TO THE US

10. CLOTHING AND TEXTILES EXPORTS ARE IMPORTANT Lesotho, clothing and textiles accounted for 99% of manufactured exports and 50% of GDP in 2002 Kenya in 2003, employment in EPZ clothing enterprises accounted for the equivalent of nearly 20 percent of all formal sector manufacturing employment

11. SSA export value China exports in equivalent product groups AGOA-1758 Lesotho-17112 Madagascar-1476 S. Africa-4565 Swaziland-1091 Kenya-397 CLOTHING AND TEXTILE IMPORTS INTO US ($m) 2005/2004

12. SSA unit pricesChina unit prices in equivalent product groups AGOA-0.9-45.9 Lesotho-3.2-46.2 Madagascar-9.5-44.0 S. Africa3.0-33.0 Swaziland-2.7-51.9 Kenya-1.9-44.8 CLOTHING AND TEXTILE IMPORTS INTO US UNIT PRICES –2005/2004 Top 10 products

15. Actual and projected global share of Chinas consumption of base metals

17. SSA EXPORTS SSA IMPORTS CHINA IMPORTS CHINA EXPORTS SSA GAIN SSA LOSS Clothing footwear Hard commodities Clothing footwear Oil All SSA SA, Lesotho, Swaziland, Madagascar, Kenya, Mauritius Most SSA Oil exporters, Zambia, SA, DRC, Botswana, Ghana, Gabon, etc

18. Policy conclusions Changing terms of trade Industrial policy –or do we mean innovation policy? A level playing field? Slow down trade policy reform within SSA Look east