1. 5.1 - 1 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Section 5-3 Binomial Probability Distributions

2. 5.1 - 2 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Key Concept This section presents a basic definition of a binomial distribution along with notation, and methods for finding probability values. Binomial probability distributions allow us to deal with circumstances in which the outcomes belong to two relevant categories such as acceptable/defective or survived/died.

3. 5.1 - 3 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Binomial Probability Distribution A binomial probability distribution results from a procedure that meets all the following requirements: 1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials. 2. The trials must be independent. (The outcome of any individual trial doesn’t affect the probabilities in the other trials.) 3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into two categories (commonly referred to as success and failure). 4. The probability of a success remains the same in all trials.

4. 5.1 - 4 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Notation for Binomial Probability Distributions S and F (success and failure) denote the two possible categories of all outcomes; p and q will denote the probabilities of S and F, respectively, so P(S) = p(p = probability of success) P(F) = 1 – p = q(q = probability of failure)

5. 5.1 - 5 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Notation (continued) n denotes the fixed number of trials. x denotes a specific number of successes in n trials, so x can be any whole number between 0 and n, inclusive. p denotes the probability of success in one of the n trials. q denotes the probability of failure in one of the n trials. P(x) denotes the probability of getting exactly x successes among the n trials.

6. 5.1 - 6 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Important Hints  Be sure that x and p both refer to the same category being called a success.  When sampling without replacement, consider events to be independent if n < 0.05N.

7. 5.1 - 7 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Methods for Finding Probabilities We will now discuss three methods for finding the probabilities corresponding to the random variable x in a binomial distribution.

8. 5.1 - 8 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Method 1: Using the Binomial Probability Formula P(x) = p x q n-x ( n – x )! x ! n !n ! for x = 0, 1, 2,..., n where n = number of trials x = number of successes among n trials p = probability of success in any one trial q = probability of failure in any one trial (q = 1 – p)

9. 5.1 - 9 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. STATDISK, Minitab, Excel, SPSS, SAS and the TI-83/84 Plus calculator can be used to find binomial probabilities. Method 2: Using Technology MINITAB STATDISK

10. 5.1 - 10 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Method 2: Using Technology STATDISK, Minitab, Excel and the TI-83 Plus calculator can all be used to find binomial probabilities. EXCEL TI-83 PLUS Calculator

11. 5.1 - 11 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Method 3: Using Table A-1 in Appendix A Part of Table A-1 is shown below. With n = 12 and p = 0.80 in the binomial distribution, the probabilities of 4, 5, 6, and 7 successes are 0.001, 0.003, 0.016, and 0.053 respectively.

12. 5.1 - 12 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Strategy for Finding Binomial Probabilities  Use computer software or a TI-83 Plus calculator if available.  If neither software nor the TI-83 Plus calculator is available, use Table A-1, if possible.  If neither software nor the TI-83 Plus calculator is available and the probabilities can’t be found using Table A-1, use the binomial probability formula.

13. 5.1 - 13 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Rationale for the Binomial Probability Formula P(x) = p x q n-x n !n ! ( n – x )! x ! The number of outcomes with exactly x successes among n trials

14. 5.1 - 14 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Binomial Probability Formula P(x) = p x q n-x n !n ! ( n – x )! x ! Number of outcomes with exactly x successes among n trials The probability of x successes among n trials for any one particular order

15. 5.1 - 15 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Recap In this section we have discussed:  The definition of the binomial probability distribution.  Important hints.  Three computational methods.  Rationale for the formula.  Notation.

16. 5.1 - 16 Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Homework Page 201 Problems 1-35 (odd)