1. Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa CSIR, National Botanical Institute, University of Pretoria & Kruger National Park.

2. The ‘Biodiversity sector’ Tourism Biodiversity Protection State Private Intrinsic value Goods and services ecotourism Off-reserve

3. Objectives of the Southern Africa AIACC Biodiversity study  Advance the state of the science (entails publishing papers)  Explore adaptation options  Develop tools for wider use  Raise capacity and awareness

4. Study area  Three case studies –Cape: data rich, diverse, mountains, patchy –Karoo: data poor, geology –‘Kruger’: large mammals and birds

5. 3 Case studies 2. North Eastern Lowveld 1. Succulent Karoo 3. Cape Floral Kingdom

6. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan

7. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Current knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions

8. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models)

9. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Step 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)

10. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Step 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools) Step 5 Case studies

11. Key Analyses: Step 1 Work with stakeholders to identify project plan Step 2 Determine: Curent knowledge (literature search) Past/present biodiversity management Species distributions Step 3 Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios Determine species environmental envelopes Model species responses (dynamic models) Step 4 Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools) Step 5 Case studies Step 6 Synthesis, recommendations and training

12. Current vulnerability  Identify threatened species by expert opinion (Red Data species will be included in the analysis)  Establish extent of occurrence of species  Overlay land use data to assess current vulnerability

13. Current vulnerability (continued)  Define coping ranges and threshold limits using various climatic and socio- economic variables (using basic statistical techniques, e.g. probability analysis)  Explicit identification of uncertainties  Define current biodiversity management practices and policies

14. Individuals to target (to factor climate change in) e.g:  Nature Reserve Network (individuals concerned with the conservation of natural resources)  Government Departments (e.g. DWAF, DEAT, NDA, DACST)  Universities  Private sector &  Local people.

15. Future vulnerability  Projecting future climate scenarios (From Hewitson group)  Model future extent of occurrence of species (statistical techniques)  Use Multi-Agent Systems to assess species ability to relocate under future climate predictions. Includes Bayesian networks

16. Future vulnerability (continued)  Explicit identification of uncertainties… –Future climate scenarios –Predictions of species –Habitat distribution –Species ability to adapt (genetic and behavioural adaptive capacity)

17. Future vulnerability (continued)  Define coping ranges, threshold limits, and vulnerability using various future climatic and socio-economic variables (using basic statistical techniques)  Identify those species and habitats which are sensitive and non-sensitive to change.  Recommend adaptive biodiversity management practices and policies

18. Defining Adaptation Options:  Impacts of climate change and reversibility  Strategic planning  Identify adaptation options that are site- specific and vary for different scales.  Focus on adaptation options which increase coping range of spp & habitats

19. Adaptation options (costs and benefits) not mutually exclusive  Do nothing  Encourage biodiversity-friendly land use between protected areas  Facilitated dispersal  Protected area realignment  Ex-situ conservation

20.  Use Cost-Benefit Analysis and Multi- Criteria Analysis to examine adaptation options  How many species does each option protect?  How robust are the options to different climate and socio-economic conditions? Adaptation options (continued)

21. Plan of papers to be published:  Climate change impacts on biodiversity in southern Africa.  Adaptation options to climate change in the biodiversity sector in three different southern African environments  Total Economic Value of biodiversity goods and services in specific case study areas.  Integrative and comparative conclusions

22. Questions