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PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE June 2006
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RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS International Economy
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International oil price
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OECD leading indicator and industrial production
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World economic outlook: Real GDP Annual percentage change in real GDP Actual Projections 2005 2006 2007 World 4,8 4,9 4,7 Advanced economies 2,7 3,0 2,8 United States3,5 3,4 3,3 Japan 2,7 2,8 2,1 Euro area 1,3 2,0 1,9 United Kingdom 1,8 2,5 2,7 Newly industrialised Asian economies* 4,6 5,2 4,5 Emerging-market and developing countries 7,2 6,9 6,6 Africa 5,2 5,7 5,5 South Africa4,9 4,3 4,1 Central and eastern Europe 5,3 5,2 4,8 Developing Asia 8,6 8,2 8,0 China 9,9 9,5 9,0 India 8,3 7,3 7,0 Western hemisphere4,3 4,3 3,6 * Include Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province of China Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2006
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World economic outlook: Consumer prices Annual percentage change in consumer prices Actual Projections 2005 2006 2007 World3,8 3,8 3,5 Advanced economies 2,3 2,3 2,1 United States 3,4 3,2 2,5 Japan -0,3 0,3 0,6 Euro area 2,2 2,1 2,2 United Kingdom 2,1 1,9 1,9 Newly industrialised Asian economies* 2,2 2,2 2,3 Emerging-market and developing countries 5,4 5,4 4,8 Africa 8,5 9,1 7,3 South Africa 3,4 4,5 4,9 Central and eastern Europe 4,8 4,1 3,4 Developing Asia3,6 3,9 3,5 China 1,8 2,0 2,2 India4,2 4,8 4,9 Western hemisphere6,3 5,8 5,6 * Include Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province of China Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 200
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Key central bank interest rates Per cent Countries 1 January 2005 13 June 2006 Latest change (Percentage points) United States 2,255,00 10 May 2006 (+0,25) Japan 0,00 0,00 19 Mar 2001 (-0,15) Euro area 2,00 2,75 8 Jun 2006 (+0,25) United Kingdom 4,75 4,50 4 Aug 2005 (-0,25) Canada 2,50 4,25 24 May 2006 (+0,25) Denmark 2,00 2,50 3 Mar 2006 (+0,25) Sweden 2,002,00 23 Feb 2006 (+0,25) Switzerland 0,25 – 1,25 0,75 – 1,75 16 Mar 2006 (+0,25) Australia 5,25 5,75 2 May 2006 (+0,25) New Zealand 6,50 7,25 8 Dec 2005 (+0,25) Israel 3,70 5,25 1 May 2006 (+0,25) China 5,585,8528 Apr 2006 (+0,27) Hong Kong 3,756,5011 May 2006 (+0,25) India 4,75 5,75 8 Jun 2006 (+0,25) Malaysia* 2,70 3,50 26 Apr 2006 (+0,25)
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Key central bank interest rates (cont’d) Per cent Countries 1 January 2005 13 June 2006 Latest change (Percentage points) South Korea 3,25 4,25 8 Jun 2006 (+0,25) Taiwan 1,75 2,375 30 Mar 2006 (+0,125) Thailand 2,00 5,00 7 Jun 2006 (+0,25) Brazil 17,75 15,75 19 Apr 2006 (-0,75) Chile 2,25 5,00 13 Apr 2006 (+0,25) Mexico** 8,81 7,00 21 Apr 2006 (-0,25) Czech Republic 2,502,00 27 Oct 2005 (+0,25) Hungary 9,50 6,00 20 Sep 2005 (-0,25) Poland 6,50 4,00 28 Feb 2006 (-0,25) Russia 13,00 12,00 26 Dec 2005 (-1,00) South Africa 7,50 7,50 8 Jun 2006 (+0,50) * The central bank of Malaysia introduced a new interest rate framework on 23 April 2004. ** The Bank of Mexico has decided on a gradual transition toward a policy target regime, but will retain the “el corto” until the transition is complete. Source: National central banks
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USA: Real gross domestic product
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USA: Unemployment rate
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USA: Consumer prices and central bank interest rates
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Japan: Real gross domestic product
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Japan: Unemployment rate
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Japan: Consumer prices
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Euro area: Real gross domestic product
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Euro area: Unemployment rate
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Euro area: Consumer prices and central bank interest rate
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UK: Real gross domestic product
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UK: Unemployment
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UK: Consumer prices and central bank interest rate
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SADC: Inflation Annual percentage change in consumer prices 2004 2005 Feb 2006 Mar 2006Apr 2006 Africa 8,1 8,5 * * * Angola 43,6 23,0 15,7 14,4 * Botswana6,9 8,6 13,1 13,8 14,2 Lesotho5,2 3,7 * * * Malawi 11,6 12,3 17,1 16,6 16,1 Madagascar 14,0 18,4 8,8 9,4 * Mauritius 4,1 5,6 5,8 6,1 5,9 Mozambique12,6 7,2 15,2 16,7 17,1 Namibia 4,1 2,4 3,7 4,6 4,4 South Africa1,4 3,4 3,9 3,8 3,7 Swaziland 3,4 4,8 4,6 5,2 5,1 Tanzania4,3 4,6 5,8 6,5 6,9 Zambia18,0 18,3 10,3 10,7 9,4 Zimbabwe350,0 237,8 782,0 913,6 1 042,9 * Not available Source: National central banks, unpublished Standard Bank data and IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2006
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RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS National Economy
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Real gross domestic product 6-year upswing
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Real gross domestic product by sector
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Real gross domestic expenditure
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Real final consumption expenditure by households
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Real disposable income of households
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Household debt as percentage of disposable income of households
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Real final consumption expenditure by general government
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Real gross fixed capital formation
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Real gross domestic final demand
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Change in inventories
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Gross saving as percentage of gross domestic product
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Non-agricultural employment
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Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) a. Total employment 11 424 11 392 11 643 11 907 12 301 b. Total unemployed (official definition) 4 434 4 415 4 135 4 283 4 487 c. Total economically active = a + b 15 858 15 807 15 778 16 190 16 788 d. Total not economically active13 080 13 324 13 527 13 334 12 909 e. Total aged 15-65 years = c + d 28 938 29 131 29 305 29 524 29 697 f. Official unemployment rate = b * 100/c 28,0% 27,9% 26,2% 26,5% 26,7% Source: Labour Force Survey by Statistics South Africa Labour market statistics, based on the Labour Force Survey
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Non-agricultural nominal remuneration per worker
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Non-agricultural labour productivity
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Non-agricultural nominal unit labour cost
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Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturing
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Headline inflation and CPIX
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All-goods production prices
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Balance of payments: Current account
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Balance on financial account
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Financial account
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Gross gold and other foreign reserves and international liquidity position of the South African Reserve Bank
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Imports covered by reserves
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Average net daily turnover in the South African foreign exchange market
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Exchange rates of the rand
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Growth in M3
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Total loans and advances extended to private sector
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Money-market interest rates
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Yield on long-term government bonds
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Yield curves
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Turnover in the secondary share market
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Share prices - all classes
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House prices *
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Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirement
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