1. North American Sales Forecast & WardsAuto Barometer
Outlook for Q and 2016

2. Forecast North America Light-Vehicle Sales
Long-Term Outlook through 2020
Paste from NA sales segment forecast

3. WardsAuto 15-Month North American Outlook – Q4 2015/CY 2016 Industry Forecasts
Sales-N.America
(Yr/Yr % Change)
One less production day from 2015
Production-N.America
(Yr/Yr % Change)
One more production day from 2015

4. North American Industry: Light-Vehicle Sales
Fourteen-year high volume in U.S., record sales in Canada and Mexico, push North America light-vehicle sales to 20.3 million in 2015, the first time above 20 million
Volume rises to 20.5 million in 2016, with nearly all gains from domestically sourced vehicles thanks to increased capacity (replacing imports) and U.S. demand for big trucks
Paste from slide 6 na sales x country

5. Forecast North American Light-Vehicle Sales by Major Segments (Domestically Built vs. Import)
CUVs forecast for the biggest volume growth in 2016 and top 6 million units.
Ironically, CUV gains strongest in imports due to heavy overseas sourcing of small and luxury versions.
Pickups also up, but most other segments remain relatively flat.
Millions
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6. Forecast U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import
Sales forecast at 17.1 million units in 2015, rising to 17.3 million in 2016, with domestically produced volume more than offsetting a slight decline in imports.
Why a record 7th consecutive Y/Y increase in 2016:
Economy, including some key fundamentals, continues to grow
Pent-up demand for new vehicles caused by the recession still exists
Vehicle replacement (aging vehicles)
Fuel prices remain relatively low
Off-lease volume
Interest rates expected to stay low enough to be a plus
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7. Forecast U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales by Major Segment
(Domestically Built vs. Import)
CUV volume up in 2016, with an influx of imports to meet demand for small and premium-priced versions – could be underestimating
Small and Middle Cars continue to be crimped by CUVs – jobs and wage growth, low fuel costs a negative for cars
Pickups, small and large, rise in 2016 – construction and housing expected to continue steady (if not robust) gains – potential for incentive activity could push volumes higher
SUVs take small volume hit in New products that lifted 2015 start to lose luster, and much of the remainder of segment getting older – however, there is room for more competitive pricing
Luxury Cars getting pinched by luxury trucks – influx of new product keeps volumes flat with 2015
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8. Forecast Canada Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import
Forecasting slight downturn in 2016 but still close to record highs.
Canada likely met the technical definition of a recession in first-half 2015, but was not reflected in automotive sales.
Will reach all-time record volume (1.88 million) for third consecutive year in There are economic issues that could impact the rest of 2015 and 2016 such as low oil prices, higher consumer debt and the possibility the Bank of Canada raises interest rates next year.
However, the Canadian automotive market has a history of resilience and stability, with less volatility than the U.S. even during the recession. Also, solid U.S. economic growth is good for Canada’s export-dependent economy.
Thus, more likelihood the 2016 forecast is low rather than high.
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9. Forecast Mexico Light-Vehicle Sales - Domestically Built vs. Import
Forecasting record 1.31 million units in 2015, followed by an increase to 1.37 million next year; the 7th consecutive Y/Y gain.
Economic growth expected to stay in line with the U.S., meaning sales should continue to increase in 2016.
Hyundai entering market in mid-2014, and Kia starting up this past summer, have made the market more competitive, and most companies took market-share hits, although their volumes were up.
The advent of Hyundai and Kia, though they do sell domestically produced vehicles in Mexico, increased import penetration in 2015 to over 38% from 37% in Import penetration is forecast to remain flat in 2016.
CUVs are growing in Mexico but small cars, including a heavy mix of imported entry-level models, continue as the dominant segment with roughly 60% penetration.
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10. Forecast North American Light-Vehicle Production by Manufacturer
2014 Actual: million
2015 Forecast: million
2016 Forecast: million
Source: WardsAuto/AutoForecast Solutions

11. Forecast North American Production by Quarter
SLIDE 8 NA PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY X QTR

12. Forecast North American Production by Car Segment Group
Thrust of small-car increase from Mazda beginning production for Toyota – Yaris and Scion iA – off its SkyActiv-B platform. Export output also a positive factor, offsetting weak demand in North America
Weak demand causing production cut; nearly every major platform in this group will drop – one notable exception is GM-Epsilon (new Malibu)
Demand for full-size cars all but dried up and getting worse. Dominated by Chevrolet Impala, Ford Taurus and Fiat-Chrysler LX-platform vehicles
Slide 12 na production x segment grp
Majority of N. American luxury-car sales come from imports. Of the ~80 vehicles in this segment, only one-third have year-over-year sales increases, and only a handful of those are domestically produced. Increased production largely due to replacement of overseas sourcing (Lexus ES)

13. Forecast North American Production by Light-Truck Segment Group
Production increase would be stronger except many of the hottest vehicles, besides such vehicles as the Europe-built Fiat 500X, Jeep Renegade and South Korea-made Buick Encore, are luxury imports. Also, capacity constraints are causing some manufacturers to dual-source by bringing in more overseas-built versions (Chevrolet Trax, Honda HRV, Nissan Rogue, Toyota RAV4).
Decline based on Nissan ending Xterra in August and Armada in December, and that 2015 included some inventory catch-up for GM’s large SUVs. (Note: some signs are pointing to a boom in Q4 SUV sales in the U.S., which could drain inventory enough to lift 2016 production above 2015)
Demand continues to rise. Output could go higher if Fiat-Chrysler and GM decide to get more competitive with Ford while it finally enjoys some year-over-year sales gains from the redesigned F-150
Slide 12 na production x segment grp
Largely a rebound from lost production in 2015 when Fiat-Chrysler closed its Windsor plant for three months to begin tooling for the new Chrysler Town & Country coming next year
Demand expected relatively flat with competition a little stiffer from import models

14. General Motors North American Timeline 2015-2016
Camaro transitions to Alpha architecture; production shifts to Lansing GR from Oshawa. Resume second shift at Lansing GR
At Spring Hill: Cadillac XT5 starts Q1; redesigned Acadia in Q2 (production shifted from Lansing Delta)
Production slowed for inventory control on cars
Add Chevrolet Bolt in Orion; end production of Buick Verano
Overseas-built Buick Cascada and mid-CUV start sales
Next-generation Volt started at Hamtramck
Add Cadillac CT6 in Hamtramck
Q1/2015
Q2/2015
Q3/2015
Q4/2015
Q1/2016
Q2/2016
Q3/2016
Q4/2016
Wentzville added third shift to meet demand for Colorado and Canyon
Production slows end of 2015 through early 2016 due to changeovers to redesigned Malibu, Cruze; end of SRX; other plant changes
Next-generation Buick LaCrosse starts; production shifted to Hamtramck from Fairfax
Millions
Slide 14 mfg production capacity x qtr

15. Ford North American Timeline 2015-2016
End Lincoln MKS in Chicago
Changeover to redesigned F-SuperDuty (T3 platform) at Kentucky Truck
Production slowed for changeovers to new F-150 at two plants; changeover to new Edge and MKX at Oakville; inventory control on cars, which underwent a severe slump in demand
Add new Lincoln Continental (D8/CD4 platform) at Flat Rock
Q1/2015
Q2/2015
Q3/2015
Q4/2015
Q1/2016
Q2/2016
Q3/2016
Q4/2016
Ramp-up of new products, and weak year-ago totals, lift Y/Y comparisons
Continued weakness for cars in general, more plants taking summer downtime, will lower Y/Y comparisons
Millions
Slide 14 mfg production capacity x qtr

16. Fiat-Chrysler North American Timeline 2015-2016
Production slowed with 3-month shutdown of Windsor minivan plant for early tooling for new Town & Country in 2016
Next-generation Town & Country (RU platform) starts in Windsor
Jeep Compass and Patriot end production at Belvidere
Q1/2015
Q2/2015
Q3/2015
Q4/2015
Q1/2016
Q2/2016
Q3/2016
Q4/2016
Expected production slowdown – timing could change - for early tooling at Toluca for compact Jeep CUV in 2017
Production down Y/Y as projected demand weakens for Dart, LX cars and (to a lesser extent) mid-size SUVs
Millions
Slide 14 mfg production capacity x qtr

17. Toyota North American Timeline 2015-2016
Y/Y comparisons skewed up due to lost production in 2014 caused by severe weather
Redesigned Tacoma (285T platform) began in San Antonio and Tijuana
Begin sales of redesigned Toyota Yaris and new Scion iA, both built by Mazda in Mexico. (Data not included in Toyota production totals.)
Subaru ends Camry production for Toyota; all Camry production consolidated at Georgetown
Q1/2015
Q2/2015
Q3/2015
Q4/2015
Q1/2016
Q2/2016
Q3/2016
Q4/2016
Lexus ES (MC platform) added at Georgetown. Replaces Japan-sourced version
Production began of next-generation Lexus RX (TNGA platform) in Cambridge
Stronger truck output lifts volume
Weak demand for cars hurts output
Millions
*Production includes Camry output for Toyota by Subaru; excludes Mazda output for Toyota (products based on Mazda platform)
Slide 14 mfg production capacity x qtr

18. Honda North American Timeline 2015-2016
Redesigned Honda Pilot (2SL platform) begins in Lincoln
Redesigned Honda Civic (GCP platform) begins in Alliston 1 and Greensburg
New Honda Ridgeline pickup (2SL platform) starts in Lincoln
Redesigned Honda Odyssey (2SL platform) starts in Lincoln
Q1/2015
Q2/2015
Q3/2015
Q4/2015
Q1/2016
Q2/2016
Q3/2016
Q4/2016
Sales begin of Japan-built Honda HRV in addition to NA-built models
Honda HRV (GCP platform) production shifts to El Salto from Celaya
Redesigned Honda CRV (GCP platform) begins in Alliston 2, East Liberty and Greensburg
End Honda Crosstour production in East Liberty
Millions
Slide 14 mfg production capacity x qtr

19. Nissan North American Timeline 2015-2016
Redesigned Nissan Titan (D23/F-Alpha platform) begins in Canton
Redesigned Nissan Maxima (D platform) begins in Smyrna
New sub-compact Nissan CUV (CMF-B platform) begins in Cuernavaca
Q1/2015
Q2/2015
Q3/2015
Q4/2015
Q1/2016
Q2/2016
Q3/2016
Q4/2016
Nissan Xterra (D23/F-Alpha platform) permanently ends production
Nissan Armada (D23/F-Alpha platform) permanently ends production
Y/Y gains from increased CUV output and cars for non-US markets
Millions
Slide 14 mfg production capacity x qtr

20. Rest of Industry North American Timeline
Subaru begins first-time N.American production of Impreza (SGP platform) in Lafayette
Kia begins first-time N.American production of Forte (HD platform) at new plant in Monterrey
Tesla adds Model X
Subaru ends production of Camry (MC platform) for Toyota in Lafayette
Redesigned Hyundai Elantra (HD platform) begins in Montgomery
Mazda began output of Scion iA/Toyota Yaris for Toyota
Q1/2015
Q2/2015
Q3/2015
Q4/2015
Q1/2016
Q2/2016
Q3/2016
Q4/2016
Redesigned Kia Optima (NF/CM platform) began in West Point
Mitsubishi permanently ends production at Normal, IL, plant; Outlander Sport – RVR in Canada - to be sourced from Japan
VW begins first-time N.American production of Audi Q5 (MLB platform) at new plant in San Jose Chiappa
VW begins production of new midsize CUV (MQB platform) in Chattanooga – resume third shift
Millions
Slide 14 mfg production capacity x qtr

21. Q4 2015/Q1 2016 Product and Plant Actions
WardsAuto North American Outlook – Part 1
Q4 2015/Q Product and Plant Actions
Sales start dates in italics are WardAuto estimations
* Current-generation Malibu continues in Hamtramck until Q

22. Q4 2015/Q1 2016 Product and Plant Actions
WardsAuto North American Outlook – Part 2
Q4 2015/Q Product and Plant Actions
Sales start dates in italics are WardAuto estimations

23. Senior Industry Analyst, WardsAuto
Thank You,
Haig Stoddard
Senior Industry Analyst, WardsAuto