1. The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement Florida Department of Education Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement Florida Department of Education Presentation Made to The Florida College System Task Force On September 4, 2008

2. The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida 1. Bachelor’s degrees and Florida’s working population 2. Sources of Bachelor’s Degrees- 3. Elements of Demand  Florida’s labor market  Students in the pipeline 4. Conclusions Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement Florida Department of Education Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement Florida Department of Education

3. United States Florida Ten Most Productive States Educational Attainment of Selected Labor Force-Aged Populations (Ages 25-64) Source: 2006 American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of the Census < High School High School Graduate Some College/Associate Bachelors Degrees or more

4. Bachelor’s Degree Attainment and Gross Domestic Product StateGDP Per CapitaPopulation 25-64 with Bachelors degree or higher United States$37,54529.2% Florida$33,71826.7% Delaware$59,28829.1% Connecticut$50,33236.6% Massachusetts$46,72140.8% New York$46,61733.8% New Jersey$44,88536.8% Alaska$43,74827.5% Colorado$41,79835.9% Virginia$41,70235.1% California$41,66330.1% Minnesota$41,29533.2% Sources: 2006 American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Economic Analysis (2006 GDP by State)

5. Sources of Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida SUS ICUF Private CC In-Migration based on 2006 only Source: FETPIP, IPEDS, NCHEMS

6. National Data: Labor Force Information by Credential Earned Unemployment Rate (Percent) Median Earnings (Dollars) Notes: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older, by educational attainment; earnings for full-time wage and salary workers Master’s degree Bachelor’s degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High-school, graduate Some high-school, no diploma Professional degree Doctoral degree Sources: Unemployment rate, 2006 annual average: Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2006 Weekly Median Earnings (multiplied by 52 weeks), Bureau of the Census.

7. Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation Occupational Distribution sorted by Minimum Educational Requirements in 2016 10,072,029 Jobs projected by 2016 in Florida

8. Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation Includes occupations with at least 4000 jobs in 2008; Occupations growing at 2% per year or greater. 100 Fastest Growing Occupations to 2016 by Minimum Educational Requirements 10 39 27 15 9

9. Occupational Title Employment Occupational Increase (2008- 2016) Annual % Change 2008 Hourly Average Wage 20082016 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software13,98917,7473,7583.3640.24 Physician Assistants4,4685,6871,2193.4140.53 Business Teachers, Postsecondary3,9534,9159623.0448.26 Civil Engineers15,32618,7673,4412.8137.91 Management Analysts54,14265,02810,8862.5137.87 Physical Therapists12,20415,0972,8932.9636.02 Environmental Engineers2,8623,6487863.4337.09 Computer Science Teachers, Postsecondary1,8272,2654383.0043.02 Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary8551,0812263.3051.03 Industrial Engineers9,21511,4292,2143.0033.19 Special Education Teachers, Preschool - Elementary10,94613,4482,5022.8632.72 Nursing Instructors and Teachers, Postsecondary1,7972,2034062.8239.55 Occupational Therapists5,3606,4851,1252.6234.73 Engineering Managers4,6425,3577151.9354.98 Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary6,8667,7899231.6851.74 Human Resources Managers, All Other1,8922,2493572.3643.82 Hydrologists6148111974.0136.32 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education75,24188,77413,5332.2531.31 Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education11,41813,7472,3292.5531.07 Education Administrators, Postsecondary2,9763,5155392.2640.61 Forestry & Conservation Teachers, Postsecondary94120263.4648.58 Top Florida Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree in 2016 – Ranked by Several Factors Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation - Data

10. Higher Proportions of Minority Students are Moving up the Pipeline Source: Florida Education Data Warehouse

11. Public School Demographic Changes are Reflected in Community College First Time Enrollees…

12. Demographic Changes are Not as Reflected in State University First Time Enrollees…

13. Actual and Projected High School Graduates In Florida 1982-2020 Source: Florida Department of Education; Evaluation and Reporting

14. Source: FETPIP Continuing Education Immediately After High School Graduation 2002 -2007 Total Continuing Education SUS CC Out-of-State ICUF In the year following graduation with a Standard high School Diploma

15. Source: Education Data Warehouse Florida Postsecondary Enrollments After High School Graduation Delayed Starters 2002 -2007 Total Enrolled SUS CC Students between 25 and 65 years of age.

16. Florida Community College Associate of Arts Graduates Entry into the Upper Division in State Institutions* Source: FETPIP Total Graduates Total Continuing to the Upper Division SUS ICUF *During the year following graduation from a Florida Community College

17. Source: PK-20 Education Data Warehouse How do Florida Students Leave Public High Schools? 2006-07

18. 132,814 Diploma Recipients Independent Universities PK-12 Adult Programs Source: PK-20 Education Data Warehouse. Note: These data represent preliminary findings. Community Colleges State University System 2006-07 The 2007-08 Academic Year* Outta State *92,970 Unduplicated Students in Postsecondary – 70% 13,982 (11%) 70,140 (53%) 29,554 (22%) 4,872 (4%) 6,641 (5%) What Happens After They Graduated? - Standard Diplomas to Postsecondary

19. Source: Florida Education and Training Placement Information Program Florida 1995-96 High School Graduates In-State Postsecondary Enrollments Through 2000 Thousands of Students 29,010 Originals Fall of 1999 24,936 Originals fall of 2000 16,205 originals in fall of 2001

20. Source: K20 Education Data Warehouse Florida Public High School Graduates, Class of 1996, Highest Education Credential Attainment as of 2007 89,461 Standard Diplomas (15,478 – 17% Never Enrolled in Florida – 6.48% out of State) Standard Diploma 66% Post BA 4% Post BA 4% BA 18% AA 8% Col Credit Voc 2% Col Credit Voc 2% VOC 2% VOC 2% Standard Diploma 66% BA 18% AA 8%

21. Placement Data for SUS Bachelor’s Degrees Source: FETPIP Florida has regularly collected employment placement data since the late 1980s. These data can be used to identify bachelor’s degree disciplines where a substantial number off graduates are placed in Florida jobs plus additional details such as quarterly earnings. In the example below, disciplines were sorted first by placement rate, then by earnings. Note: These data are for 2006-07 graduates based on Florida employment in the late fall of 2007.

22. Placement Data for SUS Bachelor’s Degrees DisciplineIndustryGrads Employed 2003 Placement Earnings 2003 Industry Average 2003 Difference 2007 Placement Average 2007 Industry Average 2007 Difference

23. Key Sources of Strategies and Direction Enterprise Florida, Inc. o Industry Sectors o Roadmap to Florida’s Future Council of 100, 2006 Report Chamber of Commerce Cornerstone Report Workforce Florida, Inc., Targeted Industries, Statewide and Regional Florida High-Tech Corridor Agency for Workforce Innovation Florida Hospital Association and Department of Health State Board of Education, Critical Teachers Florida Board of Governors

24. General Areas of Emphasis Sustainable Development o Energy o Environment Information Technology Disaster Management o Homeland Security o Hurricane Preparedness Engineering o Aerospace/Aviation o Manufacturing o Construction Arts/Communication/Interactive Entertainment Business & Global Economics o Financial Services o Professional Services o Hospitality Sciences o Life Sciences o Biotechnology Mfg. o Scientific & Technical Services Medical Services o Healthcare o Social Services Education Technology o Research and Development o Emerging Technologies

25. Concluding Remarks 1. T he linkage between employment opportunity, economic prosperity, and the educational system-particularly postsecondary education-is as critical to the nation’s future and to Florida’s role in that future. 2. There are sources of data that can and should be used to inform decisions about the types degrees to be offered that are based on historical trends, tempered by recent events. Consider: occupational projections by the Agency for Workforce Innovation. occupational needs analysis conducted by state organizations. placement data indicating which disciplines provide educated workers to which Florida industries. regional, as well as state level information from employers and organizations that represent them. 3. Sources need be considered that look beyond the “status quo” and relatively short term needs of the existing economy toward a new, more competitive economy for Florida.