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S NAP - ON I NCORPORATED October 31, 2013 1 Michael DeRenzo Dan Kleeman Charlie Penicook
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A GENDA Introduction Company Overview Macroeconomic Outlook Relevant Stock Market Prospects Financial Analysis Valuation Recommendation 2
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S NAP - ON IN RCMP & C OMPANY O VERVIEW 3 Snap-on Incorporated Founded in 1920 and headquartered in Kenosha, Wisconsin Snap-on operates in four primary business segments – Commercial & Industrial Group – Snap-on Tools Group –Primarily serves vehicle repair technicians – Repair Systems & Information Group –Other professional vehicle repair customers – Financial Services –Serves customer base across other business segments Distributes product line to over 130 countries with a very diversified product base Source: Capital IQ, Form 10-Q 2Q 2013 page 5-6 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION April 2013: Purchased 100 shares @ $85.20 RCMP Holding
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S ALES C OMPOSITION 4 2012 Net Sales & Operating EarningsGeographical & Product Sales F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION Source: MULTPLE PAGES
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C OMPANY O VERVIEW 5 Management’s Outlook Snap-on’s value creation process – Safety, quality, customer connection, innovation & rapid continuous improvement Currently focused on geographic and customer diversification – Emerging markets & critical industries (e.g. expanding franchisee network, vehicle repair garage) Focused on expanding global financial services operations to improve financing options franchisees and customers – Management expects financial services to continue to have a meaningful impact on overall operating earnings Source: Form 10-Q 2Q 2013 page 4 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION
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6 M ACROECONOMIC O UTLOOK Source: Bloomberg Terminal, IBISWorld Industry Outlook Steel is the largest raw material input that goes into Snap-on’s product lines Global price of steel has been in decline over the past two years Current steel prices are favorable for Snap-on’s COGS LME Steel Billet Global Projected Automotive Revenues F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION 3-month Steel Futures Price Automotive exports projected to grow through 2018 Expected expansion of production capacity in emerging markets Growth potential in new automotive sales and automotive repairs
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P ORTER ’ S FIVE FORCES 7 Power of Suppliers: LowSubstitutes: Low to Medium Highly concentrated inputs (e.g. steel) Varies widely across business segments (i.e. commercial tools vs. diagnostics) Suppliers are subject to market movements and do not have high degree of price control Highly specialized products have low threat of substitution Barrier to Entry: MediumPower of Buyers: Medium High start up costs, scale of production, proprietary technology in specific business segments Number of choices in tools from multiple distribution channels Competition: Medium Snap-on does not have any direct competitors that offer the same broad product base Specific business segments subject to higher degrees of competition F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION Source: IBISWorld Operating Conditions
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U NDERSTANDING M ARKET P OWER 8 StrengthsWeaknesses - Broad portfolio catering to large customer base - Strong revenue coupled with steady margin improvement - Independent financing arm - Heavy concentration in US market - Market saturation OpportunitiesThreats - Improving housing construction market in the US - Strong outlook for the global automotive retail - Increasing complexity of automobiles - Modified growth forecasts in emerging markets - Vehicle quality - Uncertainty regarding the economic recovery in Europe F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION Source: MarketLine Industry Analysis
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F INANCIAL A NALYSIS - R ATIOS 9 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION
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F INANCIAL A NALYSIS – D UPONT 10 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION
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S NAP - ON D IVIDEND S TABILITY 11 Snap-on has not missed a quarterly dividend payment since 1939 Annualized dividend growth rate of 4.83% from 1985 - present Source: Yahoo! Finance
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R ECENT S TOCK P ERFORMANCE 12 20 & 200 Day Moving Average Stock Chart Snap-on’s stock price has consistently been above the 200 day moving average While the stock has fallen below the 20 day moving average several times over the past couple months, the stocks continued rally suggests an overall up trend F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION Source: Yahoo! Finance
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V ALUATION – WACC C ALCULATION 13 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION
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V ALUATION – DCF 14 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION
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V ALUATION – C OMPARABLES C OMPANY A NALYSIS 15 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION
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C OMPARABLES S TOCK C HART 16 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION Snap-on’s recent stock performance has been well above its peer group average and the return on the S&P 500 Snap-on’s stock movement is highly correlated with the global manufacturing output and the overall global economic growth Source: Yahoo! Finance
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A LTERNATIVE DCF C ALCULATION 17 A large portion of Snap-on’s long term debt is directly attributable to the expansion of the financing division Snap-on finances the growth of its financing division through its long-term debt As Snap-on grows its financing division, its accounts receivables must grow proportionally
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A LTERNATIVE DCF C ALCULATION C ONTINUED 18
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D ECISION D RIVERS Strengths – Extremely diversified product base – Good positioning of procurement of raw materials – Great growth prospects for financing arm – Strong dividend history – Poised to capitalize on global manufacturing prospects Concerns – Anemic growth in emerging markets and Europe where Snap-on has either a larger portion of its current sales or is looking to expand – Credit risk from financees – Drastic improvements in diagnostic technology from competitors – Leverage concern for financing arm 19 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION
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R ECOMMENDATION Valuation – Current Price $101.34 per share – Analyzed Price: –DCF Valuation: $74.31 - $85.94 –Comps Valuation: $103.65 –Weighted Valuation: $94.24 Recommendation – HOLD 20 F INANCIAL A NALYSIS C OMPANY O VERVIEW S TOCK M ARKET P ROSPECTS M ACRO O UTLOOK V ALUATION
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Q UESTIONS 21
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