1. Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East? Dr. Bessma Momani University of Western Ontario bmomani@uwo.ca Image: www.caglecartoons.com

2. Lecture Outline: What, where is the Middle East? What encourages democratization? Will there be democracy or dim-ocracy in the ME? Why in the ME, the US is not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’?

3. Middle East Geographic area Not cultural, ethnic, linguistic, or religious Not all Arab countries

4. The Arab World… (based on Arab League Membership)

5. Middle East Political Landscape Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Country Index 2000 DemocracyCivil, Political Rights Press Freedom Corruption Jordan7664 Egypt8877 Saudi Arabia 999n/a Kuwait865n/a Turkey3665 Iraq999n/a Algeria788n/a Morocco8565 Columbia3667 Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source: http:// www.carleton.ca/cifp/

6. Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else Repression, exclusion of political participation ‘insular’/resist globaliz’n Large youth population →Hopelessness, extremism What encourages democratization? April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al- Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram

7. Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization… National unity– ‘togetherness’ Political leadership-- personalities Historical legacy-- colonialism Political culture– people view power Ethnic harmony-- cooperation Strong political parties-- brokerage Political institutions—legisl; judiciary Socioeconomic development– middle class Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie National security– no external threat Map of Saudi Arabia

8. International organizations –UN declaration of human rights –International law; ICC State pressure –EU; foreign aid Economic Factors –MNCs, entrepreneurs –Globalization Waves of democracy –Huntington: “snowballing” External Factors that Encourage Democratization…

9. George W. Bush on November 6 th 2003 at the National Endowment for Democracy “As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”

10. What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East? Domino Democratization in the Middle East Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy US administration professes Skeptics

11. Democracy…a domino effect? Latin America Eastern Europe Asia Domino-effect can be a trigger, if internal conditions are favorable… Middle East/ Arab world next? See: Democratic Mirage in the Middle East www.ceip.orgwww.ceip.org

12. Middle Easterners want democracy… Strong appetite for democracy Ex. of struggles for democracy: Early 1980s- Turkey shifted to democracy; military watchdog 1989, Jordan- Parliamentary elections –2002 US-FTA Elections in Bahrain, Morocco –US Free trade candidates Iran, the youth, reformers – vs. Ayatollahs, religious establishment http://people-press.org/

13. Push factors for political liberalization…  of satellite, open media –Expose corruption –‘neighborhood effect’ Ex. Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya –Challenges state-owned media –But, In Iraq, both banned for unfavorable coverage of US occupation Spread of Internet –Organizing movements –Criticize government –Outlet for banned media

14. A classified Feb. 26, 2003, State Department report by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research entitled: Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes "even if some version of democracy took root... anti-American sentiment is so pervasive that Iraqi elections in the short term could lead to the rise of Islamic- controlled governments hostile to the United States." Reported by Greg Miller at www.latimes.org

15. Or…Dim-ocracy… Igniting the ‘Arab streets’ –Populist, unorganized, anti- government demonstrations → Civil war in each state? ↑ hatred and terror on US interests –Backlash Rise of Islamists: critical of their governments and the US

16. For the US: Islamic Governments mean→ dim-ocracy? Popular Islamist movements /parties –Conservative, anti-liberal values, some anti-US Would the US want to see Islamist-controlled governments –? Eliminate democracy Extreme scenario is that these parties create Islamic states –Ex. 1979 Iran

17. Algeria: Déjà vu…. 1992: Islamist party (FIS) won elections –Military backed-regime cancelled elections Algeria civil war: –130,000 killed in the past 10 years –State of emergency, human rights violations taught other Islamists to go underground and to not trust region's secular elites –Suppressed in Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia Clinton administration: authoritarian regimes better than Islamist regimes

18. Case in point: Egypt US foreign aid to Egypt: over US $2 B b/c US fear ‘Algerian scenario’ Preferable to keep the status quo With US approval, the Egyptian government represses and prevents democratic movements…

19. How the Egyptian government prevents/represses democratization…. Media censorship –No mention of any opposition party allowed on state TV in 1995 Restricting fundraising of political parties Banning religious parties All unions are gov’t controlled State employees: intellectuals, journalists Outlaws demonstrations, indefinite detentions (50,000 political prisoners)

20. Problem: US not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’ in the ME Four general reasons… 1.Negative view of US foreign policy 2.Iraqi occupation/ democratization going poorly 3.The oil connection 4.Bush’s post 9-11 evil vs. good rhetoric

21. 1) Perception of US Foreign Policy Image and table: http://people-press.org/

22. 2) Iraqi occupation going poorly Insecurity/ Anarchy Civilian deaths Political round-up –de-Baathification Unemployment (<50%) Electrical Blackouts –Also water & fuel

23. 2) Iraqi democracy …really? US plans for ‘Iraqi sovereignty’ CPA appoint 18 organizing committees that will then select delegates These delegate then select the representatives of the legislative. The representatives have an internal vote to elect ministers and an executive. BUT…Shia (60%)- Al-Sistani –want direct elections immediately

24. 3) Oil…the motive of the US invasion of Iraq? WMD? None of the hijackers from Iraq; No connection to 9-11 Iraq not a hotbed for religious extremism ►Get Iraqi oil to break OPEC strength –Hijackers from Saudi Arabia

25. 3) The OIL connection Iraqi facilities need to be rehabilitated US emphasizing US contracts Bush admin. too connected to oil –Ex. VP Cheney’s –KBR awarded contracts.

26. 4) US reference to moral/ religious rhetoric post 9-11… The ME hears the Bush administration’s… Axis of evil Good vs. evil Anti-Islam comments –by General Boykin –Repeated in Arab media

27. Final thoughts… It is unclear whether external involvement such as the American occupation of Iraq will be enough to spark democracy in the ME Internal factors do not appear conducive, especially in Iraq The US not deemed to be an honest broker in the ME, and there may be increased backlash as a result Finally, if true democracy spread throughout the ME and if Islamist parties predictably came to power…what would this mean to US interests in the region.

28. Video… …this video is available for viewing online for free, log on to : http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/s hows/truth/