1. “Security of Supply in the Energy Sector” ENC 2000 Lille, October 7, 2002

2. Temperature Rise in the 20th Century Source: IPCC Report 1996 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1870188018901900191019201930194019501960197019801990 Deviations from the global average temperature over the period 1951 - 1980 Degrees (Celsius)

3. Possible Temperature Development in the 21st. Century 14 15 16 17 18 19 1980200020202040206020802100 19801990 -0,2 0 0,5 Degree Celsius Source: UNEP 1,0°C > 2,0°C < 5,8°C

4. How the Greenhouse Effect is affecting the Weather The numbers indicate changes caused by a doubling of carbon dioxide emissions: “5“ signifies extremely heavy rainfall at five times the current frequency. This increases the risk of flooding depending on topography Every eight years, many areas of Europe could expect to be hit by heavy rainfall. 1 2 2 2 LessEquivalentX 2X 5X 6X 7 123 5 7 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 7 7 Source: FDT 31.01.2002

5. Global Petroleum Production 1930 - 2050 conventional petroleum (incl. very small part of fat oil) 1930194019501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 ? ? ? ? expected mid-depletion point Source: Udall and Andrews, 1999 und Hiller, 1999 unconven- tional petroleum Maximum oil production to be expected between 2010 - 20

6. Energy Ellipse Source: Kemp G.; Harkavy R.E.: Strategie Geography and the Changing; Middle East, Washington, 1997 About 70 per cent of the Oil Reserves and almost 40 per cent of the Natural Gas Reserves worldwide are in the Persian Gulf States as well as around the Caspian Sea. Saudi- Arabia IranIraq Kazakhstan

7. Norway Russia Netherlands Algeria Egypt Libya Romania Germany Ukraina Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Great Britain France 1.000 km 2.000 km 3.000 km Natural Gas Deposits in 1999

8. Norway Russia Netherlands Algeria Egypt Libya Ukraina Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Great Britain 1.000 km 2.000 km 3.000 km Natural Gas Deposits in 2010

9. Natural Gas Deposits in 2025 Russia Turkmenistan 1.000 km 2.000 km 3.000 km

10. World Energy Consumption up to 2060 Gas, Oil, Coal Nuclear power Trad. Biomass Renewable Energy 0 500 1000 1500 190019201940196019802000202020402060 Exajoules exa = 10 18 1 Exajoule = 34,12 Mio t SKE - Scenario: Sustained Growth Source: Deutsche Shell