1. Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Violent extremism in Iraq and Syria
Marcus DuBois King, Ph.D.
John O. Rankin Associate Professor
August 24, 2015

2. Water Scarcity and Extremism Project: Key Hypotheses
(H1) Water scarcity is one causal factor in the Syria and Iraq conflict
(H2) Water “weaponzation” is accelerating and perpetuating the conflict

3. A satellite view (2014) showing the two main rivers running from Turkey through Syria and Iraq. Credits: MODIS/NASA

4. Map of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

5. Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

6. Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

7. Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

9. Levels of Climate Change Effects in Syria
First Level:
Second Level:
Third Level:
Fourth Level
Effects from human responses
Examples:
Inadequate policy responses, mass migrations, conflict
Effect on ecological systems
Example: droughts, desertification
Effect on human systems
Example: severe stress on agriculture, food security
Changes in physical environment
Example: higher temperatures
Levels of Climate Change Effects in Syria
First level:
Changes in physical environment
Example: higher temperatures
Second level:
Effect on ecological systems
Example: droughts, desertification
Third Level:
Effect on human systems
Example: severe stress on agriculture, food security
Fourth Level:
Examples: mass migrations, conflict

10. Hypothesis 1: Conclusions
Climate change induced water scarcity played a meaningful but complicated role in creating desperate conditions that led to political unrest and ultimately violent insurrection.
Violence was perpetrated by IS and others.
Drought, food insecurity, poverty and migration were progressive effects that led to desperation.
More study needed to assign relative weight to effects.
Projected climate change will worsen in next years
NEXT SECTION: water “weaponzation” is also causing lasting damage to the vulnerable populations

11. Categories of Water Weaponization (based on perpetrators intent)
Strategic Weaponization
Tactical Weaponization
Instrument of Psychological Terrorism
Instrument of Extortion and Incentivization
Unintentional Weaponization

12. Water as a Weapon in Syria and Iraq: Incidents Workbook 23 9 13 11 6 4
Category
Totals
Syria
Iraq
Strategic
Weaponization 23 9 13
Tactical 11 6
Psychological Terrorism 4
Unintentional Weaponization 7 1
Incentivization 2
N/A

13. Combatants’ Use of Water as a Weapon
No. of Attributed Incidents
ISIS 21
Free Syrian Army 2
Syrian regime 3
Iraqi Kurds 1
Jabhat Al Nusra
Islamist Sharia Council
ISF 4
Other NA 6

14. Water Weaponization by Cluster and Combatants
Source: King and Allers 2015

15. H2: Islamic State: Use of the Water Weapon
IS threat to use the water weapon was the key accelerant that precipitated U.S. direct involvement
Use of the water weapon has been a critical enabler and perpetuator of the IS war campaign
Use of the water weapon is problematic from a legal and theological standpoint.
Successful denial of IS’s ability to use the water weapon may be the decisive element in determining whether they can be defeated.

16. Recommendations for U.S. Engagement
Defense: First, do no harm. Prevent military ecological damage to water bodies and installations. Apply understanding of IS’s use of the water weapon to Counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies.
Development: Incorporate restoration of water infrastructure as high priority in post-conflict stabilization programs
Diplomacy: Support creation of a river commission and application and enforcement of international laws ENMOD and the Geneva Convention Additional Protocol II.

17. QUESTIONS?

18. Drought map:
Erian, W., Katlan, B. & Babah, O. Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study: Syria, The United Nations Office for Disaster and Risk Reduction
ISIS map:
'Syria: Mapping the conflict - BBC News ', BBC News, 10 July < (accessed on 05 August 2015).