1. Where You Are! Economics 201 – Principles of Macroeconomics Monday and Wednesday from 2:00 to 3:15pm Discussion – Friday from 1:00pm – 1:50pm Text: Course website: http://www.terpconnect.umd.edu/~jneri/Econ201 http://www.terpconnect.umd.edu/~jneri/Econ201

2. Who Am I Dr. John Neri Office Location: 1102B Morrill Hall Office Hours: M and W: 10:30am – 1130am

3. Illness or Family Emergency & Exams Important Steps to follow: Pre-Notification: If you are sick or have a family emergency and cannot take an exam, you must contact Professor Neri before the exam. You must fill out the Request for Excuse form. Written Verification: Illness or family emergency must be subsequently verified in writing by a physician, the Student Health Center If both steps are not followed, you will not be excused from the exam

4. Students using the DSS facility must meet with me within the first 2 weeks of classes.

5. Advice!!! Course is cumulative. Important to keep up with the lectures, and readings each week. We will have practice quizzes in the Friday discussion and review the answers. The collection of quizzes from the Friday discussion constitutes a practice exam. I do not post old exams.

6. What/Who is ……. the current unemployment rate in the US? fiscal policy? the federal government budget deficit? the Federal Reserve System? the head of the Federal Reserve System? monetary policy?

7. A Little Macroeconomic History: 19th and early 20th century, Classical Theory/Classical Economist They focused on microeconomics They argued that market forces drive the economy toward full employment, possibly quickly – markets clear. In Macro Speak “The economy self- corrects” If unemployment exist, wages would adjust(fall) to move the economy back to full employment.

8. A Little Macroeconomic History: 1929 to 1933: The Great Depression Worldwide economic crisis. Total amount of goods and services produced in the U.S. fell by more than 25%. Unemployment up to 25%. A lot of unemployment for a long period of time.

10. A Little Macroeconomic History: 1936: John Maynard Keynes, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” Replaces classical theory with theory based on: – Aggregate (Total) Demand – Wage and price rigidities – Markets don’t clear and it may take a long time for the economy to “self-correct” Birth of Macroeconomics as a field separate from microeconomics

11. A Little Macroeconomic History: Keynes believed government should intervene in the economy to stimulate the level of output and employment – During periods of low private demand, the government should take action to stimulate aggregate (total) demand to lift the economy to full employment. – Keynes was not a socialist. He was a capitalist. He simply felt capitalism could be unstable.

12. A Little Macroeconomic History: Private demand and Public demand? What can the government do to stimulate aggregate total demand (private and public) to lift the economy out of recession? Big, Big Question – does this stuff work? Almost 80 years later still debating this!

13. Chapter 5 An Introduction to Macroeconomics Macroeconomics examines the economy as a whole. Focuses on total national income instead of individual income. Deals with aggregates (total) such as aggregate consumption and investment. Looks at the overall level of prices instead of individual prices.

14. Examples of Macroeconomic Questions What causes inflation? Why is the unemployment rate sometimes high and sometimes low? Why do some national economies grow faster than other national economies? What might cause interest rates to be low one year and high the next? How do changes in the money supply affect the economy? How do changes in government spending and tax policy affect the economy

15. Microeconomics Examines the functioning of individual industries and the behavior of individual decision-making units – a business firm, an individual, an industry, a single market. Examples of microeconomic questions:  What level of output does a firm produce?  What price does a firm charge for the goods it produces?  How does a consumer determine how much of a good he or she will buy?

16. Another Way of Thinking About Macro and Micro Macroeconomics Assume most details of resource allocation and income distribution relatively unimportant Focus on the size of the pie Microeconomics Ignore macroeconomics issues focus on how individual markets allocate resources and distribute income Focus on what kind of pie and who eats it 16

17. Three Major Macroeconomic Goals Economic growth – Growth in Output how much we produce and can we keep it growing High employment Low unemployment Stable prices Low stable inflation

18. Economic Growth 1. Economic Growth – Defined as the increase in total production of goods and services in an economy that occurs over long periods of time Real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) –Total quantity of goods and services produced in a country over a year – Also called “total output”

19. The Business Cycle Rate of growth varies

20. The Business Cycle Expansion – Period of increasing real GDP Recession – Period of significant decline in real GDP – Severe or mild – Can last several years or less than a single year

21. Over time, real GDP fluctuates around an overall long-run upward trend. Such fluctuations are called business cycles. When output rises, we are in the expansion phase of the cycle; when output falls, we are in a recession. The Business Cycle peak trough

22. The Business Cycle peak trough +3% +4% -2% Long-run upward trend is 3%. In the expansion phase of the cycle, growth is > the trend. When output falls, we are in a recession.

23. The Business Cycle expansion or “boom” The period in the business cycle from a trough up to a peak during which output and employment grow. contraction, recession The period in the business cycle from a peak down to a trough during which output and employment fall.

24. The Business Cycle Depression – An unusually severe recession – 1929-1933 U.S. output dropped by more than 25 percent Since 1950 – Three severe recessions (in 1974–75, 1981–82, and 2008–2009) – And several more mild ones

25. What causes Expansions and Recessions? What macroeconomic policies can be used to offset recessions or to sustain expansions? What has caused the current recession - often referred to as the “Great Recession”? Questions - Economic Growth

26. Second Macroeconomic Goal 2. High Employment (or low unemployment) Unemployment – Economy is not achieving its full economic potential –Affects the distribution of economic well- being among our citizens Unemployment rate –Percentage of the workforce that is searching for a job but hasn’t found one

27. Unemployment Rate : 1950 - July 2015 In this last recession: Number of people unemployed increased from 7 million to 14 million July 2015: 5.3%

28. What causes unemployment to rise and fall? Can Monetary and Fiscal Policies be used to keep the unemployment rate low? What are the obstacles? Questions - Unemployment Rate

29. Third Macroeconomic Goal 3. Stable Prices Inflation rate –Percentage increase in the average level of prices Zimbabwe: mid-November 2007 to mid- November 2008 –Price roses by 89,700,000,000,000,000,000,000 percent (89.7 sextillion.) During the last few weeks of that period, prices were doubling every day

30. Inflation and Deflation Inflation An increase in the overall price level. Hyperinflation A period of very rapid increases in the overall price level. Deflation A decrease in the overall price level. Dis-inflation a decrease in the rate of increase in the overall price level

31. Examples of Hyperinflation: 1980s and 90s