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Published byRussell Hamilton Modified over 9 years ago
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ISHC Conference - 2010 Mark Lomanno President Smith Travel Research / STR Global
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Today’s Agenda Global Overview U.S. Performance Chain Scale Performance Group/Transient Performance Construction Pipeline Forecast/Takeaways
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Europe 2008 2009 8/10 -3.6% -6.2% 5.4% ME & A 2008 2009 8/10 0.7% -10.9% -0.5% Asia Pacific 2008 2009 8/10 -7.2% -6.9% 11.6% USA 2008 2009 8/10 -4.6% -8.8% 5.0% Occupancy % Change – Full Year 2008, 2009, August YTD 2010 Caribbean 2008 2009 8/10 -3.9% -4.1% 1.3% 2010 STR Global Limited Positive Occupancy Growth around the Globe... Canada 2008 2009 8/10 - 2.1% -7.6% 2.9% Mexico 2008 2009 8/10 -2.0% -16.1% 10.1%
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Europe € 2008 2009 8/10 -1.4% -11.2% 2.9% ME & A $ 2008 2009 8/10 16.2% -2.7% 3.6 % Asia Pacific $ 2008 2009 8/10 9.5% -13.5% 10.3% USA $ 2008 2009 8/10 2.7% -8.7% -1.0% Caribbean $ 2008 2009 8/10 -10.2% -13.5% 4.6% 2010 STR Global Limited ADR Increases everywhere but USA and Mexico.... ADR % Change – Full Year 2008, 2009, August YTD 2010 Canada C$ 2008 2009 8/10 3.1% -5.1% 2.4% Mexico P$ 2008 2009 8/10 5.2% -0.2% -9.7%
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Europe € 2008 2009 8/10 -4.9% -16.7% 8.4% ME & A $ 2008 2009 8/10 17.1% -13.3% 3.1% Asia Pacific $ 2008 2009 8/10 1.6% -19.4% 23.1% USA $ 2008 2009 8/10 -1.9% -16.7% 4.0% Caribbean $ 2008 2009 8/10 -14.4% -17.1% 6.0% 2010 STR Global Limited Global RevPAR Recovers – Primarily Occupancy Driven RevPAR % Change – Full Year 2008, 2009, August YTD 2010 Canada C$ 2008 2009 8/10 0.9% -12.3% 5.3% Mexico P$ 2008 2009 8/10 2.9% -16.1% -0.5%
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Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change August YTD 2010
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Strong Demand Rebound – Supply Slowing 4.3% 2.5% -4.7% -6.9% Total United States: Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 thru August 2010
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Total United States Monthly Room Demand – Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to August 2010
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102,307,179 July 2010 The Most U.S. Monthly Rooms Sold – EVER!!!
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ADR Declines Accelerate In Each Downturn + 0.1 % -4.7% -8.9% Total United States: Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 thru August 2010
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Total United States ADR – Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to August 2010 $86.59 Oct 2000 $86.79 Oct 2004 $107.91 Sep 2008
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41 Months 23 Months Total United States: ADR Twelve Month Moving Average 2000 – August 2010 Absolute ADR Will Not Recover for At Least 2 More Years -$3.70 -$ 10.25
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Total United States Occupancy and ADR Percent Change YTD through 9/25
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Key 15 U.S. Markets ADR Percent Change August 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas
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Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2010 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. -10.5% - 1.8% -16.8%
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Total United States RevPAR – Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to August 2010 $55.29 Nov 2000 $55.67 Mar 2005
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U.S. Chain Scales
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STR Chain Scales Selected chains from each segment Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont Upper Upscale – Hyatt, Embassy, Hilton, Marriott, Kimpton Upscale – Hyatt Place, Hilton Garden Inn, aloft Hotel Mid with F&B – Best Western, Holiday Inn, Ramada, Quality Inn Mid no F&B – Hampton Inn, HI Express, Country Inn & Suites Economy – Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn
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U.S. Chain Scales Supply/Demand Percent Change August 2010 YTD
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Total United States Rooms Under Construction by Scale – Thousands August 2010 Source: STR / Dodge Construction Pipeline 60% = Upscale & Mid w/o F&B
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U.S. Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change August 2010 YTD
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Chain Scale ADR Compression: Threat? Opportunity? US Chain Scales: Actual ADR Peak vs. August 2010
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Upper End Chain Segments Driving Demand Recovery… U.S. Chain Scales: Demand % Change Monthly thru August 2010
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…And ADR Recovery U.S. Chain Scales: ADR % Change Monthly thru August 2010
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Group vs. Transient Performance Transient Customer: Third party, rack rate, government rate. Group Customer: Rooms booked in blocks of 10 or more.
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Transient Occupancy is back.... U.S. Upper Tier Hotels – 2010 data through August Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents
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Total United States – Transient Segment Room Demand Percent Change Jan 2003 – August 2010
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.... But Transient ADR is not U.S. Upper Tier Hotels – 2010 data through August Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents
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Group Occupancy Below Peak 2007 Levels.... U.S. Upper Tier Hotels – 2010 data through August Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents
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Total United States – Group Segment Room Demand Percent Change Jan 2003 – August 2010
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... And Group ADR Below Depressed 2009 Levels U.S. Upper Tier Hotels – 2010 data through August Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents
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US Transient vs. Group Monthly ADR ($) - Jan 2003 – August 2010 Low Transient Rate will hold Group Rate Hostage
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18 Months 25 Months * Total US, Transient & Group ADR, 12 MMA, Jan ’03 – July ’10 Group Rates Lag Transient Rates by 1 to 2 Years
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Pipeline
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PhaseAugust 2010August 2009Difference% Change In Construction 58,609130,471 -71,862 -55.1% Final Planning 64,317 70,811 -6,494 -9.2% Planning 237,580274,239 -36,659 -13.4% Active Pipeline 360,506475,521 -115,015 -24.2% Pre-Planning 96,147 114,986 -18,839 -16.4% Total 456,653590,507-133,854 -22.7% U.S. Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Last Year Active Pipeline is Emptying
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Total United States Markets with Most Rooms In-Construction August 2010 MarketRooms% of Existing Supply New York7,4127.8% Houston2,0532.9 Dallas1,7592.3 Washington, DC1,4451.4 Atlanta1,3951.5 Miami-Hialeah1,3542.9 Orlando1,2831.1
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Key 15 U.S. Markets Absolute Occupancy August 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas
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Key 15 U.S. Markets Absolute ADR August 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas
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U.S. Industry Outlook
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U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators – September 2010 20092010F2011F Real GDP-2.6%+2.7%+2.5 % CPI-0.4%+1.6 %+1.5% Corporate Profits -3.8% +30.0% +6.4 % Disp Personal Income+0.6%+1.4%+2.1% Unemployment Rate 9.3% 9.6% 9.3%
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Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2009 Actual & 2010 / 2011 Forecast
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Total United States Occupancy Percent 2004 – 2011P
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Total United States Average Daily Rate 2004 – 2011P
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If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year… Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2011F Note: 2010 & 2011 inflation rate forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
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Total United States – Recession Demand % Change 12 MMA Demand Change From Start of Recession, by Month
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Total United States – Recession ADR % Change 12 MMA ADR ($) Change From Start of Recession, by Month
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Total United States – Recession Revenue % Change 12 MMA Revenue Change From Start of Recession, by Month
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Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2010F by Chain Scale 2010 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 8.11.3 9.4 Upper Upscale 6.70.2 7.3 Upscale 6.30.5 6.8 Midscale w/ F&B 3.0-0.3 2.7 Midscale w/o F&B 4.40.0 4.4 Economy 3.4-3.2 0.2 Independent 4.00.8 4.9
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Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2011F by Chain Scale 2011 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 0.46.7 7.1 Upper Upscale 1.65.4 7.0 Upscale 2.14.4 6.5 Midscale w/ F&B 2.5 1.5 Midscale w/o F&B 1.84.0 5.8 Economy 1.32.3 3.6 Independent 2.43.7 6.1
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Takeaways Value is King Performance trough likely past Supply growth slowing Demand improving Pricing conditions improving unevenly Second Half 2010 improvement – into 2011 Performance reset – dig out of the hole
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Thank you. www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Industry Presentations”
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