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ISHC Conference - 2010 Mark Lomanno President Smith Travel Research / STR Global.

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Presentation on theme: "ISHC Conference - 2010 Mark Lomanno President Smith Travel Research / STR Global."— Presentation transcript:

1 ISHC Conference - 2010 Mark Lomanno President Smith Travel Research / STR Global

2 Today’s Agenda Global Overview U.S. Performance Chain Scale Performance Group/Transient Performance Construction Pipeline Forecast/Takeaways

3 Europe 2008 2009 8/10 -3.6% -6.2% 5.4% ME & A 2008 2009 8/10 0.7% -10.9% -0.5% Asia Pacific 2008 2009 8/10 -7.2% -6.9% 11.6% USA 2008 2009 8/10 -4.6% -8.8% 5.0% Occupancy % Change – Full Year 2008, 2009, August YTD 2010 Caribbean 2008 2009 8/10 -3.9% -4.1% 1.3% 2010 STR Global Limited Positive Occupancy Growth around the Globe... Canada 2008 2009 8/10 - 2.1% -7.6% 2.9% Mexico 2008 2009 8/10 -2.0% -16.1% 10.1%

4 Europe € 2008 2009 8/10 -1.4% -11.2% 2.9% ME & A $ 2008 2009 8/10 16.2% -2.7% 3.6 % Asia Pacific $ 2008 2009 8/10 9.5% -13.5% 10.3% USA $ 2008 2009 8/10 2.7% -8.7% -1.0% Caribbean $ 2008 2009 8/10 -10.2% -13.5% 4.6% 2010 STR Global Limited ADR Increases everywhere but USA and Mexico.... ADR % Change – Full Year 2008, 2009, August YTD 2010 Canada C$ 2008 2009 8/10 3.1% -5.1% 2.4% Mexico P$ 2008 2009 8/10 5.2% -0.2% -9.7%

5 Europe € 2008 2009 8/10 -4.9% -16.7% 8.4% ME & A $ 2008 2009 8/10 17.1% -13.3% 3.1% Asia Pacific $ 2008 2009 8/10 1.6% -19.4% 23.1% USA $ 2008 2009 8/10 -1.9% -16.7% 4.0% Caribbean $ 2008 2009 8/10 -14.4% -17.1% 6.0% 2010 STR Global Limited Global RevPAR Recovers – Primarily Occupancy Driven RevPAR % Change – Full Year 2008, 2009, August YTD 2010 Canada C$ 2008 2009 8/10 0.9% -12.3% 5.3% Mexico P$ 2008 2009 8/10 2.9% -16.1% -0.5%

6 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change August YTD 2010

7 Strong Demand Rebound – Supply Slowing 4.3% 2.5% -4.7% -6.9% Total United States: Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 thru August 2010

8 Total United States Monthly Room Demand – Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to August 2010

9 102,307,179 July 2010 The Most U.S. Monthly Rooms Sold – EVER!!!

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11 ADR Declines Accelerate In Each Downturn + 0.1 % -4.7% -8.9% Total United States: Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 thru August 2010

12 Total United States ADR – Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to August 2010 $86.59 Oct 2000 $86.79 Oct 2004 $107.91 Sep 2008

13 41 Months 23 Months Total United States: ADR Twelve Month Moving Average 2000 – August 2010 Absolute ADR Will Not Recover for At Least 2 More Years -$3.70 -$ 10.25

14 Total United States Occupancy and ADR Percent Change YTD through 9/25

15 Key 15 U.S. Markets ADR Percent Change August 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas

16 Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2010 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. -10.5% - 1.8% -16.8%

17 Total United States RevPAR – Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to August 2010 $55.29 Nov 2000 $55.67 Mar 2005

18 U.S. Chain Scales

19 STR Chain Scales Selected chains from each segment Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont Upper Upscale – Hyatt, Embassy, Hilton, Marriott, Kimpton Upscale – Hyatt Place, Hilton Garden Inn, aloft Hotel Mid with F&B – Best Western, Holiday Inn, Ramada, Quality Inn Mid no F&B – Hampton Inn, HI Express, Country Inn & Suites Economy – Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn

20 U.S. Chain Scales Supply/Demand Percent Change August 2010 YTD

21 Total United States Rooms Under Construction by Scale – Thousands August 2010 Source: STR / Dodge Construction Pipeline 60% = Upscale & Mid w/o F&B

22 U.S. Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change August 2010 YTD

23 Chain Scale ADR Compression: Threat? Opportunity? US Chain Scales: Actual ADR Peak vs. August 2010

24 Upper End Chain Segments Driving Demand Recovery… U.S. Chain Scales: Demand % Change Monthly thru August 2010

25 …And ADR Recovery U.S. Chain Scales: ADR % Change Monthly thru August 2010

26 Group vs. Transient Performance Transient Customer: Third party, rack rate, government rate. Group Customer: Rooms booked in blocks of 10 or more.

27 Transient Occupancy is back.... U.S. Upper Tier Hotels – 2010 data through August Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents

28 Total United States – Transient Segment Room Demand Percent Change Jan 2003 – August 2010

29 .... But Transient ADR is not U.S. Upper Tier Hotels – 2010 data through August Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents

30 Group Occupancy Below Peak 2007 Levels.... U.S. Upper Tier Hotels – 2010 data through August Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents

31 Total United States – Group Segment Room Demand Percent Change Jan 2003 – August 2010

32 ... And Group ADR Below Depressed 2009 Levels U.S. Upper Tier Hotels – 2010 data through August Upper Tier = Luxury, Upper Upscale Chains and Upper Tier Independents

33 US Transient vs. Group Monthly ADR ($) - Jan 2003 – August 2010 Low Transient Rate will hold Group Rate Hostage

34 18 Months 25 Months * Total US, Transient & Group ADR, 12 MMA, Jan ’03 – July ’10 Group Rates Lag Transient Rates by 1 to 2 Years

35 Pipeline

36 PhaseAugust 2010August 2009Difference% Change In Construction 58,609130,471 -71,862 -55.1% Final Planning 64,317 70,811 -6,494 -9.2% Planning 237,580274,239 -36,659 -13.4% Active Pipeline 360,506475,521 -115,015 -24.2% Pre-Planning 96,147 114,986 -18,839 -16.4% Total 456,653590,507-133,854 -22.7% U.S. Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Last Year Active Pipeline is Emptying

37 Total United States Markets with Most Rooms In-Construction August 2010 MarketRooms% of Existing Supply New York7,4127.8% Houston2,0532.9 Dallas1,7592.3 Washington, DC1,4451.4 Atlanta1,3951.5 Miami-Hialeah1,3542.9 Orlando1,2831.1

38 Key 15 U.S. Markets Absolute Occupancy August 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas

39 Key 15 U.S. Markets Absolute ADR August 2010 YTD Excludes Las Vegas

40 U.S. Industry Outlook

41 U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators – September 2010 20092010F2011F Real GDP-2.6%+2.7%+2.5 % CPI-0.4%+1.6 %+1.5% Corporate Profits -3.8% +30.0% +6.4 % Disp Personal Income+0.6%+1.4%+2.1% Unemployment Rate 9.3% 9.6% 9.3%

42 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2009 Actual & 2010 / 2011 Forecast

43 Total United States Occupancy Percent 2004 – 2011P

44 Total United States Average Daily Rate 2004 – 2011P

45 If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year… Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2011F Note: 2010 & 2011 inflation rate forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

46 Total United States – Recession Demand % Change 12 MMA Demand Change From Start of Recession, by Month

47 Total United States – Recession ADR % Change 12 MMA ADR ($) Change From Start of Recession, by Month

48 Total United States – Recession Revenue % Change 12 MMA Revenue Change From Start of Recession, by Month

49 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2010F by Chain Scale 2010 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 8.11.3 9.4 Upper Upscale 6.70.2 7.3 Upscale 6.30.5 6.8 Midscale w/ F&B 3.0-0.3 2.7 Midscale w/o F&B 4.40.0 4.4 Economy 3.4-3.2 0.2 Independent 4.00.8 4.9

50 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2011F by Chain Scale 2011 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 0.46.7 7.1 Upper Upscale 1.65.4 7.0 Upscale 2.14.4 6.5 Midscale w/ F&B 2.5 1.5 Midscale w/o F&B 1.84.0 5.8 Economy 1.32.3 3.6 Independent 2.43.7 6.1

51 Takeaways Value is King Performance trough likely past Supply growth slowing Demand improving Pricing conditions improving unevenly Second Half 2010 improvement – into 2011 Performance reset – dig out of the hole

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54 Thank you. www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Industry Presentations”


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