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Published byShavonne West Modified over 9 years ago
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1 Joint Venture Analysis Capturing the Japanese Offshore Wind Turbines Market Miranda Ford Johnathan Gritz Jeremy Himelfarb Chris Loftus Jason Shu April 28, 2010
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2 Japanese Market Environment World Rank: Carbon Emissions 1)China 2)United States 3)Russia 4) Japan World Rank: Energy Consumption 1)United States 2)China 3)Russia 4) Japan Wind turbine market projected to reach $112B by 2030 Japanese Energy Consumption by Type Fossil Fuels
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3 Investment Strategy Strategy leverages comparative advantages GE / MHI Joint Venture 日本風の会社 Turbines Blade Design Capital Carbon-fiber Infrastructure Local knowledge
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4 Financial Analysis $187M initial capital investment –Joint venture establishment –Building procurement and modifications –Manufacturing tooling Key assumptions –8.1% Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) –25% gross margin –10% market share Investment results –$27M Net Present Value (NPV) –12.5 year payback period –9.6% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Investment Cash Flow Analysis 12 Year Payback Period Returns indicate a potentially profitable investment
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5 Risk Assessment Risks threaten marginally profitable investment Stable government with ample checks and balances Low probability of expropriation Pro-intellectual property policies Movement towards official inflation target Political / Regulatory Risk Level: Low Potential variance drivers –Slow down in push towards renewable energy sources –Significant drop in fossil fuels costs –Technological advances in competing alternative energy Wind Turbine Market Risk Level: Moderate Aging population more concerned with current consumption than future environmental impact Deflationary environment High Debt to GDP ratio Economic / Demographic Risk Level: Moderate Transaction Risk Translation Risk Investor expectations Strength of the Yen Import competing Currency Risk Level: High
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6 Is this the best use of GE’s Capital?
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7 Conclusion Business case does not justify this investment Japanese wind energy market is potentially very strong Joint venture could leverage comparative advantages High cost of manufacturing in Japan leads to smaller than expected market share Projected rate of return narrowly exceeds the cost of capital –A small change could result in a negative return on investment Importing lower cost alternatives could meet Japan’s demand –GE should pursue alternate investments to reach Japanese market
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8 Questions?
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