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Prudential Financial, Inc. Covering Analyst: Christian Meunier meunier@uoregon.edu
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Company Overview ›Founded in 1875 ›Became a mutual company in 1915, offering group life insurance ›Went public in 2001, splitting up the company into Closed Block and Financial Service Business ›Has since expanded internationally, offering a variety of products ›Manages over $1 trillion in assets
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Product Offering ›Individual Life Insurance ›Group Life Insurance ›Asset Management -Retirement Solutions -Pension-Risk Transfers -Opportunity to invest in mutual funds
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Business Divisions ›U.S. Individual and Group Life Insurance (18%) ›International Insurance & Investments (41%) ›U.S. Retirement Solutions & Investment Management (22%) ›Closed Block Business (14%) ›Corporate and Other (5%)
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Business Growth Strategies ›Domestic Growth Strategies - Acquisitions (Hartford Individual Life Insurance) -Organic Growth (Verizon and General Motors pension transfers) ›International Growth Strategies - Growth in Asia through acquisitions -Continued presence in South America and Eastern Europe ›Joint Ventures - China and India
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Industry Overview ›Life Insurance and Annuities -Expected annual growth of 3.4% -Highly regulated both internationally and domestically -Recent low interest rates have halted growth -Highly saturated U.S. industry has led to international growth -No company in the U.S. has over a 4% share of the industry -Ageing population in Japan and U.S. will improve sales
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Macro Factors ›Prudential is highly dependent on economic conditions -Group Life Insurance sales -Individual Life Insurance sales -Annuity revenue is dependent on investment gains ›Interest Rates -High percentage of investments are in bonds
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Portfolio History ›Tall Firs - 220 shares at $64.95. Purchased 10/02/2011 - 1.62% of portfolio, has returned -13.30% ›Svigals - 40 shares at $63.46. Purchased 11/02/ 2011
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Revenue Model ›Split into 5 divisions ›U.S. Individual Life and Group Insurance –Improving economy -Acquisition of Hartford Life Insurance ›International Insurance -Foreign acquisitions will increase sales -Aging population in Japan and Korea ›U.S. Retirement Solutions and Investments –Pension transfers -Recent growth has been slowed due to interest rate
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Revenue Model Continued ›Closed Block Business -Policies that were in place during demutualization -Will expire ›Corporate and Other -Averaged out the last five years to find fixed value
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Working Capital Expenditure ›Very few current assets - Included 50% of cash and cash equivalents in my model ›Trend of greater liabilities expected to continue -Used up current assets for acquisitions -Must have a positive working capital terminal year ›Company does not have capital expenditure
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Discounted Cash Flow ›Benefits - Policy pricing from acquisitions cannot be changed by Prudential ›General and Administrative Costs - Cost projected as % of revenue ›Dividends to Policyholders -Will increase in the future due to high competition ›Interest Expense on Policies -Greater Investment income -Set themselves apart from competition
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Amortization and Depreciation ›Amortization of Deferred Policy Acquisitions -Costs that have to do with selling new and renewed policies (commission) -Constant rate, lowers towards end due to efficient distribution channels ›Depreciation -Flat rate due to Prudential not increasing equipment with revenue
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Beta
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Final DCF Valuation
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Comparable Analysis ›Looked at market capitalization, product offering, beta, geographic sales and growth. ›MetLife (35%), Aflac (35%), Principal Financial Group (20%), Manulife (10%), AIG (0%)
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Multiples Multiple Implied PriceWeight EV/Gross Profit $79.0540.00% EV/EBITDA $45.3860.00% Price Target $58.85 Current Price $57.21 Undervalued 2.86%
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Final Valuation
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Catalysts ›Upside -Increase in interest rates -Entry into China and India -Decreased regulation ›Downside -Continued high unemployment -Interests remain at historical lows
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Questions?
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Recommendation ›Hold in both portfolios ›Withstood difficult economic conditions ›Strong global position ›Intelligent acquisitions
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