1. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Improved Water Vapour and Wind Initialisation for Precipitation Forecasts: Impact Studies with the ECMWF IFS Martin Weissmann, Andreas Dörnbrack, Gerhard Ehret, Christoph Kiemle, Stephan Rahm, Oliver Reitebuch Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Carla Cardinali, Elias Holm European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK

2. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Motivation above oceans: hardly any radiosondes aircraft at cruise level height errors of AMVs low accuracy of passive instruments low vertical and horizontal resolution lidars can measure various atmospheric quantities in remote regions with high accuracy and high resolution either from satellites or aircraft goal: estimate benefit with impact studies AMSU-A: 50-55 GHz

3. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 DLR lidar instruments Doppler lidar dropsondes, u, v, t, rh, p scanning coherent 2 µm Doppler lidar conical scans with 24 azimuth positions vertical profile of 3-D wind vector horiz. resolution 5 - 40 km vert. resolution 100 m Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) nadir or zenith pointing profile of water vapour molecule number horiz. resolution: 2 - 40 km vert. resolution: 500 - 2000 m DIAL lidar

4. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 4 flights in "sensitive areas" (targeting) 1 flight for Greenland Tip Jet 1 flight for intercomparison ASAR and lidar 2 transfer flights ======================================= 8 flights, 1600 wind profiles, 40 000 lidar measurements, 49 dropsondes Wind data - Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (A-TReC) 5 million operational measurements used per day lidar = 0.005% additional measurements DLR Falcon: 14 - 28 Nov. 2003

5. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Iceland Ireland ECMWF sensitivity plot and 500 hPa http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/ Observations on 25 November 2003

6. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Dropsonde (2000 times enlarged) Error lidar 1-1.5 m/s Error drops/raso 2-3 m/s Instrumental and representativeness errors Error AMV 2-5 m/s Background departures: (Std(bg-dep)) 2 = (Stdo bs ) 2 + (Std bg ) 2

7. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 observation influence (Cardinali et al. 2004): 0 --> no influence of observations 1 --> no influence of background mean global observation influence = 0.15 Observation influence (22 November 2003)

8. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 (gpdm) Reduction of forecast error at 500 hPa - 72 h area: 17 x 10 -6 km 2

9. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Mean reduction over Europe, averaged over 29 forecasts (~2 weeks) black: experiments with lidar, gray: experiment with 100 dropsondes Reduction of forecast error - 500 hPa

10. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Reduction of forecast error of 500 hPa geopotential height: Lidar 72 h: ~ 1 m (3.5%) Simmons and Hollingsworth 2002: 72 h: 10 m in 10 years Comparison to mean reduction of NWP error

11. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Reduction of forecast error - 48, 72, 96 h

12. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006  Reduction of u, v, z, rh, and t forecast errors Relative reduction of RH forecast error - 48, 72, 96 h

13. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 NOAA DLR 20031115 at 18 Step4220031120 at 18 Step54 20031122 at 18 Step66 20031125 at 18 Step30 Cut off low; heavy precipitation in SE-Spain Heavy rain/strong wind in Portugal and NW-Spain Strong winds –northwest Europe Heavy rain, Scotland and Norway A-TReC targeting campaigns

14. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 The influence of targeted observations ­ + ­ + statistical problem --> larger sample 63 - 90% of total impact outside of verification area --> larger areas improved sensitivity predictions better structure functions practical restrictions --> better planning

15. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 DIAL lidar water vapour observations Transfer flights to 4 field campaigns during 2002 - 2005

16. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Impact of lidar H2O-observations (preliminary) Longitude Latitude 60 W20 E20 W Reduction of TCWV first guess error (lidar - control) WV mixing ratio [mg/kg]

17. Kick-Off-Treffen SPP, Bonn 23-24 October 2006 Conclusions first assimilation of "real" Doppler lidar measurements in global NWP model lidar measurements have a smaller error than all other operational wind observations --> high analysis influence and information content lidar wind measurements reduce the average forecast error of u, v, z, rh, and t over Europe average reduction of the 48 - 96h forecast error over Europe ~3% limitations of targeted observations: need for more cases, larger verification area, systematic decisions, better structure functions... ongoing water vapour studies emphasizes the potential of airborne and spaceborne lidars (ADM-Aeolus, possible future water vapour DIAL satellite) future campaigns: COPS 2007, IPY 2008, T-PARC 2008 www.pa.op.dlr.de/na-trec/