1. Greenskies 2007 Australian airspace 8 th BITRE Transport Colloquium 19 June 2008 Aviation and Climate Change Manager, Strategic Planning Airservices Australia Dr Robert Porteous

2. BITRE 2008 Aviation Emissions Industry outlook Global Australia Options Short-term Medium-term Long-term Policy Aviation and Climate Change Outline

3. BITRE 2008 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS “One of the most readily visible signs of human presence, is the occurrence of contrails from aircraft in the upper atmosphere. They …. can be seen over virtually all parts of the world as white streaks across the sky. " Australian astronaut Dr Andy Thomas. Contrails over Europe

4. BITRE 2008 Aviation CO 2 Emissions 2 percent of CO 2 Emissions 14 percent of Transport CO 2 Emissions Uplift 2- 4 times 700 million tonnes per annum Visible Impact

5. BITRE 2008 Aviation and Emissions Phases of Flight kg CO 2 per min: » Taxi 30 » Take-off400-500 » Cruise100-150 Taxi – 30 kg/min Take-off – 400-500 kg/min Cruise – 100-150 kg/min SOx NOx CO Noise Unburnt hydrocarbons Particulates CO 2 H 2 O NOx

6. BITRE 2008 Aircraft Fuel Efficiency 40% reduction over 20 years » US – Older fleet » Average aircraft size steady or decreasing » Australia – Modern » Average aircraft size generally increasing

7. BITRE 2008 Global Industry Outlook Strong growth: » Growing demand » Greater passenger numbers » Vigorous growth of low-cost carriers » Greater utilisation of secondary airports

8. BITRE 2008 Profitability uncertain Consolidation Airlines Routes Credit squeeze Rising fuel prices Environment Congestion Safety Skills shortage Global Industry Outlook

9. BITRE 2008 » Increased growth » Profits steady » Strong Aussie $ » Consolidation » Low cost carriers » Efficient ATM » Modern fleet » Efficient technologies Australian Industry Outlook

10. BITRE 2008 Options for the future » Short-term » Medium-term » Long-term » Policy options

11. BITRE 2008 Short-Term Options » Modernise fleet » Winglets » Carbon Offsets » Efficient ATM » Air Traffic Flow Management » Research » ASPIRE » SESAR

12. BITRE 2008 Medium-Term Options » Fleet upgrades » Alt Fuel trials » Gate-to-Gate » 4D Trajectories » Flexible Use of Airspace » Collaborative Decision Making » Policy – Noise vs Emissions

13. BITRE 2008 Long-Term Options » Efficient Operations » Global Gate-to- Gate » Regional Upper Air Space » Alternative fuel and engines

14. BITRE 2008 Policy Responses » Incentives for collaboration » Taxation » Emissions trading schemes: – Global not industry – Research » International approach

15. BITRE 2008 The Future Aviation outlook: » Cautious optimism Emissions: » Some short-term response but look to other industries too Alternative Fuels: » A role for Australia?