1. Tim Beechie NOAA Fisheries, Seattle Incorporating climate change into restoration planning

2. The ESA salmon context ESA legal context –Salmon recovery planning and climate change –Consultations and climate change NOAA science efforts address: –Vulnerability of populations –How do we adapt restoration plans and actions to be successful despite climate change?

3. Adaptation: decision support framework Q1: What habitats limit salmon recovery? Q2: Does climate change alter habitats limiting recovery? Q3: Does the restoration plan reduce climate change effects? Q4: Does the restoration plan increase habitat diversity and salmon resilience?

4. Watershed assessment How have habitats changed and altered biota? Habitatconditions Salmon Humans Landscape processes Landscape processes

5. Watershed assessment Habitatconditions Salmon Humans Landscape processes Landscape processes What are the root causes of habitat change? How have habitats changed and altered biota?

6. The restoration plan A restoration plan should: –Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines –Generate a list of needed restoration actions –Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population Beechie et al. 2013

7. The restoration plan A restoration plan should: –Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines –Generate a list of needed restoration actions –Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population Beechie et al. 2013

8. Climate change assessment Habitatconditions Salmon Climate change Climate change Landscape processes Landscape processes How does climate change affect all of this? How have habitats changed and altered biota?

9. Summer rearing sensitivity <10°C 14-18°C 10-14°C 18-22°C 22-26°C >30°C 26-30°C Below threshold Near threshold Above threshold

10. Ameliorating climate change effects Literature review to see if restoration actions can: –Reduce a peak flow effect? –Reduce a low flow effect? –Reduce a stream temperature effect? Beechie et al. 2012

11. Increasing resilience Literature review to see if restoration actions can: –Increase habitat and species diversity so the ecosystem can better withstand climate change effects? Beechie et al. 2012

12. Increase habitat diversity Waples et al. 2009

13. Restoration actions and climate change Restoration action Temperature increase Low flow decrease Peak flow increase Increase resilience Longitudinal connectivityYYNY Floodplain connectivityYNYY Restore incised channelYYYY Restore in-stream flowYYNN/Y Riparian rehabilitationYN/YNN Sediment reductionNNNN In-stream habitatNNNN Nutrient enrichmentNNNN

14. Restoration actions and climate change Restoration action Temperature increase Low flow decrease Peak flow increase Increase resilience Longitudinal connectivityYYNY Floodplain connectivityYNYY Restore incised channelYYYY Restore in-stream flowYYNN/Y Riparian rehabilitationYN/YNN Sediment reductionNNNN In-stream habitatNNNN Nutrient enrichmentNNNN

15. Closing points Q1: Identifying the most important restoration actions is critical for cost-effective restoration Q1: Identifying the most important restoration actions is critical for cost-effective restoration Q2: Climate change may alter the importance of key restoration actions Q2: Climate change may alter the importance of key restoration actions Q3: Many restoration actions can reduce climate change effects on stream flow or temperature Q3: Many restoration actions can reduce climate change effects on stream flow or temperature Q4: More connectivity and more dynamics are important for ecosystem resilience to climate change Q4: More connectivity and more dynamics are important for ecosystem resilience to climate change