1. steve_raney@cities21.org Suburban Silver Bullet: Halve SOV Commutes Goals: –Remove many cars from suburban office parks Current: 78% drive alone, 16% shared ride, 3% transit –Intensify land use / reclaim parking lots What works? –$10/day parking (effective, but unpopular) –Hypothesis: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility PRT = Personal Rapid Transit No “lifestyle sacrifice” Year 2008 scenario.

2. steve_raney@cities21.org Customer-Centered Product Research Literature Product Concept Interviews Experts Commute Refined Concept Surveys Validation Silicon Valley style New technology bias –High touch / community building is natural –Takes on personality of researching organization Start with rough business case in mind and refine.

3. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle Feeder / Distributor / Circulator –Similar to a monorail. VideoVideo High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. –Non-stop, 30 MPH –Bypasses intermediate stations –Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose –Convenient stops by buildings (not on street) –Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust –24x7.

4. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT 5 mile alignment Vehicle Storage

5. steve_raney@cities21.org Stanford Research Park In Palo Alto, CA 20,000 jobs Campus-style Parent of Silicon Valley 50% asphalt Commute Shed: –47% within 2 miles of Caltrain –49% within 10 miles 185 edge cities > Memphis

6. steve_raney@cities21.org Promising Results (62 surveys) Promising, but not definitive Solo commutes: 89%  45% –Carpool: 9%  32%, train: 0%  15.5% train –For 20K people, removes 6,600 autos (roughly) @ 350 s.f. per space  50 acres  $326M hsng profit 1.32 PRT trips/day/person => 26K trips/day –PRT: profitable (capital, O&M) Huge transit village  land value increase Apply to 6M workers in major emp. centers –1.98M cars, 12B VMT, 424M gals, 8.4B lbs CO 2.

7. steve_raney@cities21.org Comprehensive, Integrated Mobility Door to Door Centralized Cars: share, rent, ride home Delivery services, Personal activities, Business services first mile Train first mile Bus Walk Bike, scooter, Segway Smart jitney, hitchhike Web/wireless coordination Supportive policy context Scale! Short carpool pick up first mile Long carpool Improved match-making Shared parking, nuride PRT shuttle system LAST MILE mid-day trips

8. steve_raney@cities21.org Cellular Solutions Marauder’s Map (GPS) –Transit, rideshare connections Like NextBus –Get home safe (Big Sister is watching).

9. steve_raney@cities21.org Old transit village 20 acres Jobs “New Suburbanist” Transit Village New retail New housing Train Station PRT shuttle system Extended T.O.D. 1280 acres Reduced auto dependence: < 50% SOV trips (for workers, residents, & shoppers.) Child/Senior mobility! Business Services: Banks, PC store, copies, FedEx, legal, accounting, etc. Personal Activities: Quality schools, day care, hiking, parks, movies, grocery, banks, restaurants, cafes, bars, grocery, gym, massage, yoga, dentist, etc. Efficient: transit node + vibrant place, shared parking, lower living cost, less car ownership, more time. A new choice! (versus buying beyond the greenbelt). Jobs/Housing Re-balance: workforce housing

10. steve_raney@cities21.org Literature + Interviews + Surveys Large solo driving reduction is hard Last mile problem is very important –Mid-day trips: 2X value of time –Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles Each commuter: basket of objections –PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient 30% time penalty: OK Carpool psychology is complex: –Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating) –Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important Short Caltrain or carpool with PRT: OK Customer support: eliminate nightmares Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home Good commute: “time went fast.”

11. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT status 2 companies developing –Taxi 2000, Fridley (60’ track, 1 vehicle) –ULTra, Cardiff, Wales (1km track, 2 vehicles) Heathrow procurement Dubai procurement (no public review!).

12. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT Investor Due Diligence The Team – entrepreneurial cost control, etc. –IBM vs. IBM skunk works. Golem Group Control system design (architect spends 1/3 of time writing documentation) Control system safety certification –Public utilities commission? –Each SW “version” requires painful re-certification Annual operating costs –Video surveillance, etc. –Insurance for the first system will be high Switch reliability (1 fail out of 2M trips  50 days) Performance degrades near capacity (wave-offs).

13. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT+D2D Economics

14. steve_raney@cities21.org END Silver Bullet