1. The Need for Action - evidence for global warming, hope for solutions Geoff Davies Visiting Fellow Earth Sciences, ANU Author: Economia

2. Is global warming happening? Yes.

3. Is global warming happening? Yes.

4. Is global warming still happening? Yes, it’s the long-term trend. Note pauses 1980s, 1990s. 2010 equal warmest- ever, so far.

5. What about cooling 1940-1970? Due to industrial soot and dust cooling North Atlantic ocean Text Mainly in northern hemisphere

6. Arctic sea ice, to September 2007

7. Previous minima

8. Decline of Arctic sea ice (area)

9. Decline of Arctic sea ice (volume)

10. Are we causing global warming? Consistent with predictions from 20-30 years ago Many lines of evidence well-established physics (100+ years) measured patterns of warmth in atmosphere the past models - disputed but consistent

11. Patterns of warmth:

12. Indications from the past e.g. temperature and CO2 variations in during ice ages CO2 Temperature

13. Indications from the past Collective estimates from ice ages volcanic eruptions past warm episodes sediment records Result: 3-4°C (or more) per doubling of CO2

14. Consequences? Many.

15. Complex interactions: different species respond differently some decline - extinctions some increase - plagues trees migrate slower than birds - ecosystems ripped apart Total effects impossible to predict Consequences? Many. Ecosystems

16. Sea level Consequences? Many.

17. Is there any hope? Yes - with good policies, cost to economy small (<1% GDP) eliminating waste is the quickest, most cost-effective option - start tomorrow many technologies available already We can accept remaining difficulties as a challenge, not a reason to dither

18. Cost of 60% emissions reduction: 9 months longer to double GDP Steve Hatfield-Dodds, CSIRO No action Early action

19. Reducing waste Available now at zero or moderate cost: Building energy efficiency: quadruple Vehicle fuel efficiency: double Household electricity use: one quarter Water efficiency double (or more)...

20. Eliminating waste Redefine waste: as nutrient (Cradle-to-cradle design) Carpet nutrient Battery nutrient

21. Interface Carpet Inc. - efficiency gains Broadloom to tiles: x5 Recyclable polymer: 2/3 the material: x1.5 4 times as durable: x4 Total gain x30 (97% material reduction) After 4 years: Revenues doubled Employment nearly doubled Profits tripled!

22. The second industrial revolution Waste is nutrient (Organic) growth is good Survive on energy income Diversity is resilience A factory like a forest?