1. Risk-Based Decision Making How do you make public policy?

2. Policy in the US vs. Europe In the United States we currently make policy decisions using a risk-based decision making process. The precautionary principle is an alternative policy making process that is very controversial in the United States but accepted in Europe.

3. Type I and Type II Errors Anytime a decision is made there is a possibility that an error will have been made. A Type I error is the theoretical possibility that a decision is made to accept that something is happening when nothing is happening. A Type II error is the theoretical possibility that a decision is made that nothing is happening when something is happening. The kind of error that is preferable depends on the perspective of the individual.

4. Type I Error For example, to an utility company it would be an error [Type I] to act if global warming is happening when it may not be. Why?

5. Type II Error To an ecologist, evolutionary biologist, agronomist, or another individual who views the consequences of global climate change as severe, it would be an error [Type II] to act as if global warming is not happening (when it could be.) Why?

6. Climate Change Implications What type of risks are involved with making a wrong decision about global climate change? Describe the economic and social impact of acting as if global climate change is occurring (when it is not) Diversion of money from other tasks to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cost of energy conservation, economic dislocations from reducing greenhouse gas emissions and energy conservation, and so on.

7. Climate Change Describe the economic and social impact of acting as if global climate change is not occurring (when it is) Impacts on global and local ecosystems, impacts on the ability to grow food or obtain resources (timber), impacts from increased energy usage (air conditioning?)

8. Assessing Risk Can you effectively prioritize the following risks? If you were in charge of public policy for the US Environmental Protection Agency, how would you prioritize the following risks. Please explain why, and give a detailed response to your rationale to the order and prioritization.

9. Assessing Risk