1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 February 9, 2012

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:2008 and 2010 Class –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center –http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html State of the Climate: Global Plant Hardiness - 2012

4. Today Uncertainty: Start of a Discussion Projects Observations of Physical Climate Observations of Ecosystems

5. Uncertainty Discussion How uncertain do you think climate science is? What seems most uncertain to you? Is this uncertainty small enough to motivate action, or is it so large that action is risky? Is better communication of uncertainty what stands between us and doing something? Is reducing uncertainty critical?

6. Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non- controversial. This represents the uncertainties in the observations

7. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty Lack of knowledge or imperfect knowledge Two categories? –Aleatory: Dependent upon chance / randomness –Epistimic : Knowledge based / could be knowable

8. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty “Climate Scientists” –Value uncertainty –Structural uncertainty –Predictability

9. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty “Climate Scientists” through eyes of a model practitioner –Scientific goal to get answer for the right reason rather than get the right number Sources of Uncertainty –Boundary conditions –Initial conditions –Structural formulation of physics –Parametric uncertainty –Numerical formulation –Downscaling and scaling noise

10. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty Rood in a DoE Strategy Document –Quantifying primary variable uncertainty (e.g., temperature) and integrated responses (e.g., sea-level rise) and presenting this information in a way suitable for risk analysis. –Addressing uncertainty related to biases and misrepresentation of the variability of multiscale, coupled processes and phenomena in climate models (e.g., mean state tropical biases and sea ice).

11. Academics and Scientists on Uncertainty Rood in a DoE Strategy Document –Addressing uncertainty related to mechanisms and processes known to be missing from climate models (e.g., ice sheet models and groundwater flow). – Exploring uncertainty related to specification of emission scenarios and, more generally, human enterprise.

12. Some Uncertainty References Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis Assessment Report, Uncertainty Best Practices Communicating, 2009Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis Assessment Report, Uncertainty Best Practices Communicating, 2009 Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis Assessment Report, Transportation Gulf Coast, 2008Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis Assessment Report, Transportation Gulf Coast, 2008 Moss and Schneider, Uncertainty Reporting, 2000 Pidgeon and Fischhoff, Communicating Uncertainty, 2011Pidgeon and Fischhoff, Communicating Uncertainty, 2011 Lemos and Rood, Uncertainty Fallacy, 2010

13. Some Project Ideas Education –Strategies when policy requires teaching “denial” –Incorporation into engineering curriculum –Earth science in K-12; admission to college Cities (esp Great Lakes) Adaptation Climate in the Keystone Pipeline Great Lakes Seasonal forecast information / Long-term projections / Use of information / Effectiveness of communication efforts

14. Question Madden and Ramanathan Predicted in 1980 would be discernable in 2000.Madden and Ramanathan What would you do to evaluate the theory and predictions of global warming? –Surface of planet will warm –Sea level will rise –Weather will change Think about Measurements Feedbacks Correlative behavior Impacts

15. The Elements of the Data System Conventional Operational Satellite Applications: Process Definition - Definition of physical mechanisms - Use of observations to define feedback mechanisms - Reanalysis data sets Applications: Prediction and Hindcast -Objective evaluation of change -Alternative scenarios for climate forcings -How to use observations in prediction -Predictions for multi-member ensembles Observation mission support - Quality Control/Instrument Monitoring - Validation (linking different scales) - Definition of future observing system - Retrieval of geophysical parameters Research Satellite

16. Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non- controversial. This represents the uncertainties in the observations

17. Physical Climate System

18. The Current Climate Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center –http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html Global Analysis 2010 Annual Summary Global Analysis December 2010 Wunderground climate page

19. February 2011

21. Central England Temperature Central England Temperature from the Hadley CenterCentral England Temperature from the Hadley Center

22. Central England Temperatures

23. IPCC Temperature Observations Note: It gets smoother away from the surface.

24. Temperature Observations Santer et al. 2005 Santer et al. 2005

25. Temperature Observations Santer et al. 2005 Santer et al. 2005

26. 20m Borehole Temperature Trends in Alaska Hinzman et al 2005 0 C ?

27. IPCC Water Vapor Observations Upper tropospheric temperature Water Vapor

28. IPCC Precipitation Observations

29. IPCC Precipitation Extreme Events Observations

30. IPCC Snow Cover Rood Blog 2 Rood Blog 3

31. IPCC Ice Sheet Accumulation

32. D. Hall/974 Pasterze Glacier tongue: 1893-2001 The Pasterze Glacier tongue receded ~1.2 km from 1893 to 2001 1893 2001 1976 Glaciers in the European Alps have lost 50% of their volume in the last 150 years Changes of terminus position Austrian Alps Glaciers From Paul Houser, George Mason University

33. IPCC Sea level rise

34. Remember Thermo-Haline Circulation What was Haline? –Why was it important? –How might we change “halinity?” Way 1? Way 2?

35. Ocean Salinity (from R. Curry) Curry et al. Nature 2003

36. Ocean Salinity (from Ruth Curry)

37. IPCC Sea Surface Temperature Atlantic Hurricane Zone

38. IPCC Ocean Heat Content ERROR IN DATA

39. Error in Ocean Data Set Ocean Cooling Correction -Outgoing Energy -Sea level rise -Direct comparisons with other observations

40. Some interesting facts The old, incorrect data remain all over the web. The correction of the observations is a routine aspect of quality control and scientific investigation –Often gets labeled as “manipulation.” If data were left “uncorrected” then arguments that there are errors left in the data.

41. Ocean Heat Content Initial work by Syd Levitus and colleagues showed an increase in the heat content of the oceans over the second half of the 20 th century (Levitus et al., 2001, Science)

42. IPCC Sea Ice What is happening here?

43. Ice Shelf Collapse January 31, 2002 March 5, 2002

44. Some Icy Link Snow and Ice Data Center State of the Cryosphere

45. Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate /.State of Climate 2009 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate / Correlated behavior of different parameters

46. Today Observations of Physical Climate Observations of Ecosystems

47. Edges “Edges” are places where we really might be able to see things definitively. What are the edges? –Ice (Phase transition) –Deserts –Seasons

48. There is an accumulation of observations Physical and biological impacts correlated with temperature increase and dryer conditions. –What is the relationship between warming and surface dryness? –Strongly correlated with population and where we have looked.

49. Project Budburst A community science activity collect observations of the onset of spring –Project BudburstProject Budburst How to observe the onset of spring –National Phenology NetworkNational Phenology Network

50. Project of Trees A community science activity to collect observations on types of trees –Canadian Plant Hardiness SiteCanadian Plant Hardiness Site

51. How would these changes be revealed?  Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through 1. changes in growing season 2. changes in “productivity” Increases in Productiviy Increases in growing season JanDecJul Aug Increase NDVI JanDecJul Aug earlier spring delayed fall NDVI From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard

52. Interestingly significant news story

53. Hardiness Map Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness Zones.Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness Zones

54. Table 1 from Walther et al. (2002)Walther et al. (2002) Walther, G. R., et al., Ecological Response to Recent Climate Change, Nature, 416, 389-395, 2002Ecological Response to Recent Climate Change

55. Table 2 from Walther et al. (2002)Walther et al. (2002)

56. Spring is coming earlier From Walther et al, 2002Walther et al, 2002

57. Global distribution of changes sensitive to temperature IPCC Technical Summary WG2

58. Can we get a global perspective from satellites? NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index –Looks at radiative budgets, measurements, and the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, relative to the rest of the radiation.

59. How would these changes be revealed?  Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through 1. changes in growing season 2. changes in seasonal NDVI magnitude Increases in NDVI magnitude Increases in growing season JanDecJul Aug Increase NDVI JanDecJul Aug earlier spring delayed fall NDVI From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard

60. Northern Hemisphere May-September NDVI Changes 1992-19991982-1999 From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard

61. From Kirsten de BeuresKirsten de Beures

62. Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University

63. Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve (Keeling et al, 1996) Amplitude has increased 20% in Hawaii Amplitude has increased 40% in Alaska, Canada The phase, start of the decrease, start of the growing season, has moved forward 7 days.

64. Geographical extent of warming Osborn Spatial Extent of Warming

65. Coherent and Convergent? There is evidence in both the physical climate system and ecosystems of systematic global warming. This evidence shows correlated behavior through many systems. Taken independently each piece could be challenged. Taken together the evidence converges. –Consistent with human-related forcing

66. Coherent and Convergent? Taken independently each piece could be challenged. Taken together the evidence converges. –Consistent with human-related forcing Consistent with human-related forcing –Really?

67. Attribution The physical climate and ecological observations in the previous are consistent with the planet is warming. How do we decide that this is consistent with human-induced warming?