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Rubber Market Overview Bill Hyde Director C 4 Olefins and Elastomers bhyde@cmaiglobal.com Bill Hyde Director C 4 Olefins and Elastomers bhyde@cmaiglobal.com Chicago Rubber Group September 23, 2010 SingaporeSingaporeShanghaiShanghaiHoustonHouston New York LondonLondonDüsseldorfDüsseldorfDubaiDubai BangkokBangkok
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September 2010 CommercialStrategyTransactionLegal Olefins & Derivatives Polymers & Plastics Methanol Aromatics Chlor-alkali & Vinyl Fibers & Intermediates Engineering Resins C 4 s and Elastomers Other Intermediates & Specialty Chems Project Economics Asset Valuations Technical Analysis Due Diligence M&A CMAI’s Global Consulting Business Business Advisory Services Market/Planning Advisory Services Corporate & Business Planning Support Market, Value Chain Competitive Analyses Feasibility Studies Legal Strategy, Expert Analysis & Testimony, Damage Assessment, Valuation & Arbitration Support Focused Multi-client Publications, World Analyses, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Services, Training Corporate Strategies Business Unit Strategies Functional Strategies
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Chicago Rubber Group CMAI Tire Raw Material Index
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Chicago Rubber Group What’s Next? Fundamental Drivers Synthetic Rubber Natural Rubber
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Chicago Rubber Group Fundamental Influences
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Chicago Rubber Group
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The Synthetic Rubber Future Asia is the dominant factor and China dominates Asia Market limits vary by region –Supply/Demand –Feedstock availability
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Chicago Rubber Group Global Synthetic Rubber Market
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Chicago Rubber Group Is There Enough Capacity?
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Chicago Rubber Group China Dominates Asia
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Chicago Rubber Group What is China’s Future?
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Chicago Rubber Group North America is Underutilized
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Chicago Rubber Group Cost Differentials Also Drive Prices Rubber raw material prices have been historically high, but regional differentials have been even worse Rubber producers in North America can expect more of the same
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Chicago Rubber Group BASE PETROCHEMICALS
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Chicago Rubber Group Surplus Ethylene Peaks In 2010
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Chicago Rubber Group On-Purpose Propylene Production
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Chicago Rubber Group Evolving Trends in U.S. Butadiene Feedstock Production 4
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Chicago Rubber Group New Extraction Capacity
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Chicago Rubber Group Average Demand
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Chicago Rubber Group
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Natural Rubber Demand is recovering Market balance tightening
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Chicago Rubber Group Natural Rubber Demand in China
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Chicago Rubber Group Natural Rubber Inventory
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Chicago Rubber Group Conclusions Fundamentals –Stabilizing Synthetic Rubber –China will be biggest market driver –Cost differences will cause price differentials and North America will have the highest of both Natural Rubber –Tightening
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THANK YOU! Contact any CMAI location to assist in your petrochemicals market analysis Contact Information Available at CMAIGLOBAL.COM CHEMICAL MARKET ASSOCIATES, INC. Bangkok
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