1. Martin J Blunt Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London Two hundred barrels left: an analysis of population growth, oil reserves and carbon dioxide emissions

2. Big question? Volatile oil prices Financial crisis Rising food prices Growing population Peak oil Global warming Where are we heading?

3. World population http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html

4. Growth rates

5. Population growth

6. Growth rate as a function of population

7. US population to the present day

8. US population growth rate

9. Swedish population

10. Swedish population growth rate

11. Population of Saudi Arabia

12. Growth rate for Saudi Arabia

13. Population of Rwanda

14. Growth rate for Rwanda

15. Global population growth rates fit to linear models Logistic equation K is carrying capacity

16. Logistic equation

17. Population projections Green line – my estimate Other lines and crosses: more detailed estimates from the UN, US Census Bureau and the World Bank

18. Hubbert analysis of oil production NNNN

19. US oil production to 1960

21. US oil production – data and prediction

22. US oil production to 1960

23. Hubbert analysis for world oil production http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/

24. Hubbert prediction – peak in 2010!

25. Total volume of discoveries worldwide, 1900-2004 From Tertzakian, 2006; based on Harper, 2003

26. Comments Oil is integral to our society – think of something that doesn’t use oil in its manufacture or distribution. We are not about to run out of oil, but it is a precious resource. So what will happen?

27. Fossil fuels and global warming What is the greenhouse effect? What does it have to do with carbon dioxide? What has carbon dioxide to do with the oil industry? Are we likely to damage the climate? Should we be worried? Don’t listen to opinions – work this out for yourselves.

28. What determines climate? Radiative heat transfer from the sun (which is influenced by orbital mechanics, solar variations) Flow of warm and cold water in the ocean Flow of warm and cold air in the atmosphere Reflection of sunlight back to space Greenhouse gases Feedbacks (much more about this later) Source: Lamb & Singleton, Earth Story, Princeton U. Press, 1998

30. (ORNL 1997) Carbon exchange with the environment

31. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration - Last glacial maximum to present

32. Radiation energy balance Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001

33. Greenhouse gases Water is the most important GHG. CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and CFCs are other important GHGs. Sulfur emissions (aerosol precursors have also risen). Surface ocean pH has declined by 0.1 due to dissolving CO 2. Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001

34. The Earth is a greenhouse planet The combination of solar irradiance and greenhouse effect determines the mean surface temperatures of Mars, Earth and Venus. In the absence of the natural greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature of Earth would be -19 o C. - 63 o C15 o C 452 o C Average Surface Temperatures MarsEarth Venus Source: C.T. Bowman, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford

35. Source: IPCC, “Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge Univ. Press, UK (2001)

37. How much carbon dioxide?

38. Concentration in the atmosphere

39. Fossil fuel reserves

40. Population growth

41. How much oil per person?

42. Carbon dioxide concentrations

43. What can we do? We do still need the oil industry. Yes, we will continue to use fossil fuels – like it or not. There is only one technology that can save us…..?

44. Carbon capture and storage How much can be stored? 920 Gt – 45% of emissions to 2050 in oil and gas fields. 400-10,000 Gt in aquifers 20-500% of emissions to 2050 IEA estimates. 700 Gt in North Sea alone (DTI) ≈ CO 2 produced by all UK population for >50 years

45. Critical point of CO 2 is 31 o C and 72 atm (7.2 MPa). CO 2 will be injected deep underground at supercritical conditions (depths greater than around 800 m). CO 2 is relatively compressible; density less than water, similar to oil. Low viscosity – around10% of that of water. Carbon dioxide properties

46. Current emissions are around 30 Gt CO 2 per year (8.5 Gt carbon). Say inject at 10 MPa and 40 o C – density is 600-700 kgm -3. This is around 10 8 m 3 /day or around 700 million barrels per day. Current oil production is around 85 million barrels per day. Huge volumes – so not likely to be the whole story, but could contribute 1-2 Gt carbon/yr…. Costs: 1-2p/KWh for electricity for capture and storage; £25-60 per tonne CO 2 removed – Shackley and Gough, 2006. Could help fill the UK emissions gap in 2020. Some numbers

47. North Sea storage Large capacity in mature oil and gas fields. Oil and gas field relatively small traps in much larger aquifers. Engineering challenge to construct the capture, transport and injection infrastructure. Most current infrastructure would need to be replaced.

48. Trapping background How can you be sure that the CO 2 stays underground? Dissolution, chemical reaction, cap-rock and capillary trapping. Capillary trapping is rapid (decades): CO 2 as pore-scale bubbles surrounded by water. host rock

49. Pore-scale CO 2 trapping CO 2 bubbles

50. Design of CO 2 storage Injector Producer SPE 10 reservoir model, 1,200,000 grid cells (60X220X85), 7.8 Mt CO 2 injected. Qi et al., SPE 109905 A case study on a highly heterogeneous field representative of an aquifer below the North Sea:  Inject brine and CO 2 together and then use chase brine to trap CO 2  1D results are used to design a stable displacement  Simulations are used to optimize trapping

51. 3D results for aquifer storage Mobile CO 2 saturation Z 170m X 3200m Y 2280m Trapped CO 2 saturation X 3200m Y 2280m Z 170m 20 years of water and CO 2 injection followed by 2 years of water injection in realistic geology 95% of CO 2 trapped after 4 years of water injection Qi et al., SPE 109905

52. Conclusions and thanks Do your own analysis! Many students and post-docs and research funders: